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From the Caribbean, low voter turnout overshadows Jamaica’s election as Andrew Holness wins a third term. From the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan accuses China of unlawful drilling inside its exclusive economic zone.

Today’s lead story focuses on Pretoria’s hollow peace and why Tigray remains a tinderbox in the Horn of Africa.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇲🇱 🇩🇿 🇺🇳 Mali files case at International Court of Justice over Algerian drone strike: Mali’s transitional government has lodged a complaint against Algeria at the International Court of Justice, accusing its neighbour of “premeditated destruction” of a Malian reconnaissance drone near Tinzaouaten on 31 March. Bamako said the strike was intended to obstruct its military operations against rebels and constituted a violation of the principle of non-use of force. Algeria claimed the drone entered its airspace but provided no evidence and has yet to issue a formal response. Mali denounced the incident as “blatant aggression” and part of a pattern of hostile actions. The dispute comes amid strained ties: Algeria once mediated between Mali and Tuareg separatists, but relations have soured since Mali’s 2020–21 coups, its break with France, and growing reliance on Russia for security support.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Putin signals conditional openness to Ukraine peace talks but warns force remains an option: Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that he preferred to end the war in Ukraine through negotiations “if common sense prevails,” but warned Russia would rely on military force if diplomacy fails. Speaking in Beijing after signing a major gas pipeline deal with China, Putin claimed there were “sincere efforts” by U.S. President Donald Trump to push for a settlement, describing “a light at the end of the tunnel.” Yet he reiterated core demands: Ukraine must renounce NATO membership and halt alleged discrimination against Russian speakers. Putin said he would meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Moscow if talks were “well prepared,” a proposal Kyiv rejected as unacceptable. Despite stressing his preference for peace, Putin emphasized Russia’s readiness to pursue its objectives “by force of arms.”

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇸🇾 China holds back recognition of Syria’s new government over Uyghur fighter presence: Nine months after Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Beijing has yet to formally recognise Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, despite maintaining ambassador-level engagement. China’s hesitation stems from security concerns: thousands of Uyghur militants from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) have reportedly been integrated into the Syrian army’s 84th Division, with one commander elevated to brigadier general. Beijing fears these fighters could one day target Chinese interests or Xinjiang itself. Its UN envoy has repeatedly warned against “foreign terrorist fighters” and urged Damascus to act. For now, China is unlikely to support lifting UN sanctions or commit to major reconstruction, adopting a risk-management approach instead: limited political engagement, conditional backing at the UN, and little financial investment, while pressuring Damascus through Turkey and Gulf partners.

4️⃣ 🇮🇪 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 Irish government warns UK against abandoning European Convention of Human Rights: Ireland’s deputy prime minister Simon Harris has warned that Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement cannot be undermined by efforts in London to abandon the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Speaking at the British Irish Association conference in Oxford, Harris stressed that the ECHR is a “fundamental safeguard” and an “essential pillar” of the 1998 peace accord, which both governments are bound to uphold. He also announced that Dublin and London will appoint an independent panel to recommend steps toward dismantling paramilitary groups that continue to wield influence over one-fifth of Northern Irish communities. Harris said paramilitarism remains “an enduring scourge” more than 25 years after the peace deal, warning that coercion, criminality, and intimidation still blight daily life for many.

5️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Smotrich pushes West Bank annexation plan despite uncertain Netanyahu backing: Israel’s far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich announced that his office is drafting maps to annex most of the occupied West Bank, sparing only a handful of Palestinian cities such as Ramallah and Nablus. Standing before a map in Jerusalem, Smotrich said his goal was to secure “maximum territory with minimum Palestinian population” and permanently eliminate the prospect of a Palestinian state. The proposal, made under his Defence Ministry remit, has not been endorsed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and its chances of advancing remain unclear. The UAE warned annexation would be a “red line,” while Palestinian officials denounced it as illegal. The move comes as Israel faces mounting global criticism and Western pledges to recognise Palestinian statehood at the UN next month.

Major Story

🇪🇹 🇪🇷 PRETORIA’S HOLLOW PEACE: WHY TIGRAY REMAINS A TINDERBOX IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

The Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 ended the deadliest war of the century, a conflict in which as many as 800,000 Tigrayans were killed, millions displaced, and advanced foreign-supplied weaponry tested on civilians. Yet the deal—brokered by the African Union, IGAD, and U.S. envoy Mike Hammer—rested on shallow foundations. It addressed symptoms rather than causes, ignored demands for accountability, excluded critical actors such as Eritrean forces and Amhara militias, and relied on good-faith implementation without enforcement. Tigray’s deprivation today is not an oversight but the result of a settlement that equated silence of the guns with peace, leaving grievances unresolved and justice absent.

Fault Lines Unhealed

At the heart of Ethiopia’s crisis lies the tension between federalism and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s drive toward centralisation. The interim administration imposed on Tigray is too weak to carry legitimacy and too vague to clarify reintegration of the TPLF. Meanwhile, cycles of impunity deepen. Human rights groups have documented atrocities by Eritrean troops and Amhara militias even after the truce, yet Pretoria offered no mechanism for justice. By excluding victims and local civil society from negotiations, the accord entrenched elite bargains and marginalised ordinary Tigrayans, fuelling alienation and renewed resistance.

Crisis by Attrition

Two years on, Tigray’s agony endures. More than 40% of its territory remains under Eritrean or Amhara control. Sexual violence, enforced disappearances, and political killings persist. Nearly a million internally displaced persons are crammed into camps, while towns like Shire and Adwa strain under triple their prewar populations. Disarmament targets remain unmet: of more than 200,000 ex-combatants, most have yet to be reintegrated, while wounded veterans languish without support. Hunger is weaponised through aid shortfalls, with Ethiopia receiving just a fraction of its UN humanitarian appeal.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions

The collapse of Abiy Ahmed’s once-celebrated rapprochement with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has intensified the crisis. Both states are engaged in mutual accusations at the UN, backed by military mobilisations that risk igniting another interstate war. As Ethiopia presses for access to the Red Sea, Eritrea is exploiting divisions within the TPLF, courting rival factions to hedge against Addis Abeba. The danger is not only renewed war in Tigray but a regional conflagration spilling into Sudan and destabilising the wider Horn of Africa.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇯🇲 Low turnout mars Jamaican election as Andrew Holness secures third term: Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have secured a third consecutive term after edging out the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) in a closely fought election. Preliminary results showed the JLP winning 34 of 63 seats, against 29 for Mark Golding’s PNP. Holness hailed the victory as proof Jamaicans want to maintain economic gains and crime reductions achieved under his leadership, pledging to “accelerate the development of our country.” His government has been credited with cutting public debt and overseeing the steepest decline in homicides in decades. Despite corruption allegations raised during the campaign, Holness denied wrongdoing and thanked voters for their trust. Turnout was under 40 percent, the lowest in years, raising concerns about democratic engagement.

2️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan accuses China of illegal drilling inside exclusive economic zone: Taiwan has accused China of violating international law by operating oil rigs inside its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near the Pratas Islands, demanding Beijing “immediately cease” the activity. The revelation, first reported by The Guardian and confirmed by maritime tracking, shows rigs owned by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have operated there for up to five years. Taipei warned the drilling breaches the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and threatens regional stability, but analysts say Taiwan has limited options since it is excluded from UN maritime arbitration mechanisms and lacks naval strength to confront China. Officials vowed to coordinate with regional partners, noting Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea have also protested similar Chinese encroachments.

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