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Pressure is rising on Abu Dhabi as Mohammed bin Salman urges President Trump to curb Emirati support for Sudan’s RSF, while Marco Rubio warns states against arming the militia amid mounting atrocities. 

In Europe, Belgrade pushes ahead with the Kushner-linked redevelopment despite mass protests, and Berlin rules out reviving conscription as it unveils an expanded voluntary military service programme.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 Hegseth signals new Venezuela operation: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared the launch of “Operation Southern Spear,” describing it as a mission to “remove narco-terrorists from our hemisphere,” but offered no operational details—fueling alarm that Washington may be preparing for military action against Venezuela. 

2️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 MbS presses President Trump over Emirati backing for Sudan’s RSF: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has urged President Trump to confront the UAE over its support for Sudan’s RSF, analysts say. Riyadh’s move reflects widening Saudi–Emirati tensions: while Abu Dhabi continues to arm the RSF via regional supply lines, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are backing the Sudanese army and view US pressure as essential to ending the conflict. 

3️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Canadian intelligence agency warns of intensifying Russian, Chinese Arctic espionage: Canada’s intelligence chief says Russia and China are stepping up espionage efforts in the Arctic, targeting government institutions and private companies as competition over shipping routes and critical minerals accelerates. Ottawa’s warnings come as the federal government boosts Arctic investment and urges NATO to treat the region as a strategic priority.

4️⃣ 🇱🇾 Western Libya fuel-smuggling surge exposes a state-enabled kleptocracy: A new Sentry investigation finds that state-backed fuel smuggling in Libya between 2022 and 2024 diverted roughly $20bn in public revenue, implicating senior politicians, security chiefs, and foreign patrons in a vast criminal enterprise. The report shows how Libya’s National Oil Corporation oversaw an explosion in fuel-swap imports that were resold abroad for private profit, fuelling regional conflicts.

5️⃣ 🇩🇪 Berlin rejects conscription return as new voluntary military service launched: Germany’s government has ruled out restoring compulsory military service despite a large personnel shortfall in the Bundeswehr, opting instead for an expanded voluntary scheme with higher pay and mandatory assessments for all 18-year-old men.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 IRAN WEIGHS CHINESE WEAPONS AS POST-TRUCE MILITARY LOSSES DEEPEN

With Iran’s air-defence network heavily degraded during Israel’s June offensive, and Russian military assistance increasingly absent, Tehran appears to be exploring China as a new source of advanced weaponry. Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh’s visit to Qingdao for the SCO summit triggered speculation that Beijing could step in where Moscow has stalled, particularly as frustration grows inside Iran’s security establishment over delayed Russian deliveries and preferential sales to India.

Rumours of Chinese arms transfers surged in July, including unconfirmed claims that Iran had acquired HQ-9B surface-to-air missile batteries through an oil-for-weapons barter arrangement—reports China swiftly denied. Iranian media sympathetic to reformists nonetheless amplified suggestions of broader purchases, including long-range radars and electronic-warfare systems, signalling a possible attempt to normalise the idea of deeper military cooperation with Beijing.

Post-war urgency and the appeal of Chinese systems

Satellite imagery following the June strikes indicates serious damage to Iran’s layered air-defence grid, particularly around nuclear and military sites. In response, Tehran is reassessing its arsenal and has approved new funding for the procurement of major foreign systems. The shift also reflects waning confidence in Moscow. Analysts note that Russia’s hesitation to deliver long-promised Su-35 fighter jets, coupled with its growing defence ties with India, has convinced many in Tehran that reliance on Russia is strategically untenable. Chinese platforms, once dismissed as inferior, have gained credibility following their performance with Pakistan and are increasingly viewed as integrated, interoperable packages—an attractive proposition for Iran’s fragmented defence ecosystem.

Constraints on China and the limits of a pivot

Still, a decisive Iranian turn toward Chinese weapons remains uncertain. Beijing has strong incentives to avoid overtly arming Tehran, wary of provoking the US, jeopardising ties with Gulf Arab partners, or destabilising a region where Chinese commercial interests are expanding. Experts argue that while China may continue supplying dual-use components and missile-related materials, major weapons transfers would carry significant diplomatic costs.

Iran’s interest in Chinese systems reflects a broader recalibration following the war with Israel: a need to rapidly rebuild deterrence, diversify suppliers, and reduce dependence on an unreliable Russia. But whether this results in substantive arms deals, or remains a form of strategic signalling, will depend on Beijing’s willingness to move from covert support to visible partnership, and Tehran’s readiness to accept the political trade-offs such a shift would entail.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇮🇱 🇦🇪 Israel and the UAE deepen covert partnership from Gaza to Sudan: Emirati-Israeli cooperation now extends from joint weapons manufacturing to intelligence-sharing platforms and ventures, which channel sensitive technologies to states lacking formal ties with Israel. In Sudan, the RSF’s access to Israeli surveillance tools and Emirati financing has been central to its campaign of atrocities, while both countries use the language of “counterterrorism” and “maritime security” to justify expanding their Red Sea footprint.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇩 Rubio warns unnamed states over arming Sudan’s RSF as atrocities escalate: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington “knows which governments are funnelling money and weapons to Sudan’s RSF” and has begun pressing them to halt support, warning their involvement will “reflect poorly on them” as the RSF advances and atrocities mount. While avoiding naming the UAE, Rubio stressed that Quad members, including Abu Dhabi, cannot use the diplomatic process as cover while enabling a force implicated in mass killings.

3️⃣ 🇷🇸 🇺🇸 Belgrade accelerates Kushner redevelopment deal amid public outcry: Leaked documents show that Serbia quietly formed a joint venture in 2024 granting Jared Kushner’s Atlantic Incubation Partners a 77.5% stake in a project to redevelop the bomb-scarred former military headquarters in Belgrade, obliging the government to demolish the protected complex by next May or face heavy penalties. The fast-tracking law passed last week—overturning regulatory blocks and cultural-heritage protections—has ignited mass protests.

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