Hello and welcome back.

Macron warns Beijing over China’s export surge, UAE-backed secessionists force an airspace shutdown in Yemen, and a deadly blast shatters a fragile peace in eastern DR Congo.

With Ukraine racing toward a funding cliff, Russia’s frozen billions are fast becoming bargaining chips, with consequences that will reverberate far beyond the battlefield.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 UN seeks $23bn as global humanitarian system nears breaking point: The UN has launched a $23 billion appeal for 2026, warning that humanitarian agencies are overwhelmed, underfunded, and increasingly targeted, with 250 million people now in urgent need and funding at a decade low. UN aid chief Tom Fletcher said hunger, disease, and displacement surged in 2025 while 380 aid workers were killed.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 IDF declares the yellow line a ‘de facto Gaza border’: Israel’s military chief has declared the Trump ceasefire “yellow line” a new defensive border, signalling that Israeli forces intend to hold territory now covering more than half of Gaza, including key farmland and the Rafah crossing. The stance appears to contradict the ceasefire’s promise of full withdrawal, as Israel fortifies positions along the line and treats it as a lethal boundary.

3️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Trump threatens tariffs over Mexico water dispute: President Donald Trump has warned he will impose a new 5% tariff on Mexico unless it immediately releases large volumes of water to the US, accusing it of breaching a long-standing Rio Grande water-sharing treaty. Mexico argues severe drought has constrained its ability to comply.

4️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇷 🇪🇺 Doha forum spotlights Gaza, Syria, Iran and Ukraine diplomacy: Leaders at the Doha Forum warned that the Gaza ceasefire is at a critical juncture, with Türkiye pledging to push the process forward, and Syria’s President al-Sharaa accusing Israel of regional escalation while outlining a five-year transition to elections. Iran’s Mohammad Javad Zarif asserted Tehran’s continued security autonomy and called for improved Arab ties, as EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas reaffirmed the US as Europe’s key ally despite diplomatic strains regarding Ukraine.

5️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy rules out territorial concessions in U.S.-led peace push: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has flatly rejected any territorial compromises with Russia, saying Ukraine has no legal or moral right to surrender land even as the Trump administration presses for a negotiated settlement. His stance comes amid mounting US pressure to accept a framework that initially mirrored key Russian demands, including ceding parts of eastern Ukraine and ruling out NATO membership.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 RUSSIA’S FROZEN BILLIONS BECOME BARGAINING CHIPS

With Ukraine racing toward a funding cliff, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has revived a plan for the EU to borrow €90 billion for Kyiv, backed by frozen Russian assets. The proposal would cover most of Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction needs through 2027, but legal fears, especially from Belgium, where the bulk of the reserves sit, have again slowed consensus, exposing deep fractures inside the bloc.

While Europe debates liability and precedent, Washington has moved in a very different direction. During recent U.S.–Russia contacts, Donald Trump’s envoys quietly explored proposals that would partially convert frozen Russian assets into investment capital, including joint ventures with profits redirected through American channels. That such ideas reached serious discussion marks a dramatic shift: what Europe framed as punitive economic coercion is being reimagined as negotiable capital.

Sanctions meet transactional diplomacy

The intermediaries now shaping these talks are not diplomats bound by institutional norms but dealmakers operating in the grey zones of sanctions and finance. On the Russian side, sanctioned financial powerbrokers have reportedly tested pathways toward relief, treating restrictions less as red lines than as opening offers. For Moscow, sanctions are no longer purely constraining, they are leverage. Europe, meanwhile, remains trapped between legal caution and strategic urgency. Belgian officials warn that seizing the asset principal could expose their state to liabilities equivalent to the national budget. Yet each week of hesitation strengthens those treating Ukraine’s survival and reconstruction as a business proposition rather than a matter of sovereignty.

A dangerous precedent

The consequences stretch far beyond Ukraine. If frozen reserves become investable instruments and sanctions relief becomes transactional, economic coercion loses credibility as deterrence. For Beijing and other revisionist powers, the lesson is stark: territorial aggression may not mean isolation, but delayed negotiation at a discount.

Ukraine, World Politics Review writes, now faces a brutal asymmetry. Great powers barter over the financial architecture of its war. What is emerging is not a durable peace framework but a precedent in which invasion opens markets, rather than closing them.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 🇨🇳 Macron warns China against export surge: European leaders and analysts have issued warnings that China’s export-driven model is hollowing out EU industry, with President Emmanuel Macron calling the bloc’s swelling trade deficit with Beijing a “question of life or death.” Goldman Sachs estimates China’s export surge could shave 0.5% off eurozone GDP by 2029, yet Macron’s calls for tariffs face resistance inside the EU.

2️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇦🇪 UAE-backed secessionists trigger airspace shutdown in Yemen: Yemen briefly closed its airspace after the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council seized key territory in oil-rich Hadhramaut, deepening fractures within the anti-Houthi camp and alarming Saudi Arabia. The rapid STC advance, which now leaves most of southern Yemen under separatist control, has intensified fears of a formal north–south split and a regional power shift favouring Abu Dhabi.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Deadly blast shatters fragile peace in eastern DRC: A bomb blast killed more than 30 people in South Kivu after clashes between the Congolese army and its pro-government Wazalendo militia, underscoring how quickly violence is unraveling the US.-brokered peace deal with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. As civilians flee toward Burundi, President Tshisekedi has accused Rwanda of violating the agreement and fueling renewed instability, an allegation Kigali has not publicly addressed.

Weekly Updates?

Want weekly updates as well as daily?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Weekly here ⤵️

Grow Your Audience With Us

Build your reach. Strengthen your brand.

We’ve helped brands, podcasts, and media organisations grow audiences using proven short-form video systems.

From scripting and editing to analytics and optimisation — every decision is driven by data, not guesswork.

Visit www.horizonatlasmedia.com to learn more.