Hello and welcome back.

Today, Baghdad and Erbil reached a tentative agreement to resume oil exports through Turkey, as Sanae Takaichi’s weekend victory in Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership race positions her to become the country’s first female prime minister.

Our lead story moves to Haiti, where after years of deadlock, the UN Security Council has approved a new international “gang suppression” mission aimed at restoring order and stability.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syria holds first post-Assad elections: Syria’s first parliamentary elections since Bashar al-Assad’s ouster have filled more than half the seats in the 210-member People’s Assembly but left the country divided over whether the vote marks genuine transition or renewed control. While officials claim the process promotes balance and technocratic governance, critics allege manipulation, forged results, and exclusion of key communities.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 Le Pen demands snap elections: France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen called for immediate snap elections after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned. Le Pen’s National Rally is surging in the polls and preparing for power, claiming France has reached “the end of the road.” 

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇸🇩 Houthis expand arms smuggling through Sudan: Yemen’s Houthi movement is reportedly using Sudan as a new hub for arms smuggling after US and Gulf Arab forces disrupted long-standing supply routes from Iran through the Arabian Sea. Analysts say the Houthis are leveraging Red Sea routes to maintain their military supply chain, with evidence suggesting they have even developed strike capabilities in Sudan. 

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 US government shutdown enters its second week: The US government shutdown entered its second week with no progress toward a funding deal, as President Donald Trump’s administration warned it may begin slashing the federal workforce. Democrats refuse to back any spending bill that excludes healthcare provisions, while Republicans insist negotiations can only resume once funding is restored. 

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel kills over 100 Palestinians after Hamas agrees to release hostages: Following Hamas’s agreement to free hostages under a Trump-backed ceasefire framework, Israeli strikes killed over 100 Palestinians during a weekend of intense bombardment that hit residential areas, refugee camps and aid distribution points.

Major Story

🇭🇹 🇺🇳 HAITI’S RARE DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH

After years of paralysis, the UN Security Council (UNSC) has approved a new international “gang suppression” mission for Haiti—its first significant move since the country descended into chaos. The decision, passed on 30 September after China and Russia abstained, follows months of negotiation and marks a diplomatic victory for Washington, Ottawa, and several Global South partners such as Mexico and Panama. It reflects an unexpected consensus to address one of the world’s most intractable crises, in a nation where over 90 percent of the capital is under gang control and more than one million people have been displaced.

The resolution builds on the earlier Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS), first approved in October 2023 but hobbled by limited funding and participation. Kenya was the only country to deploy forces—800 police officers instead of the planned 2,500—who remain largely confined to barracks in Port-au-Prince. The new mission seeks broader backing, though it may take six to twelve months before deployment is complete. Canada has already pledged $60 million to bolster maritime patrols and stem arms smuggling, setting an important precedent for tangible support.

A Fragile Political Context

Yet the mission arrives amid political uncertainty. Haiti’s Transitional Presidential Council (TPC), established in April 2024 after gangs blocked interim leader Ariel Henry’s return, is due to dissolve in February. Originally mandated to organise elections, the council has instead become mired in internal disputes and allegations of ineffectiveness. With gangs expanding their control beyond the capital, holding elections next year appears both impossible and perilous.

Three succession options now dominate debate: extending the TPC’s mandate, establishing a technocratic interim government involving civil society and business leaders, or entrusting temporary authority to a member of the Supreme Court. Each option carries risks—from provoking gang retaliation to constitutional controversy—but all underscore the urgent need for legitimate, accountable governance to coordinate with the incoming UN mission.

A Last Chance for Stability

The UNSC vote represents more than an operational milestone—it offers a glimmer of renewal for multilateralism itself. For years, fatigue and geopolitical divisions stymied global engagement with Haiti’s crises. Now, the hope is that this intervention will not become “another rescue” but the foundation for the last one. Success will depend on sustained financial commitments, local leadership, and a shift from short-term stabilisation to rebuilding institutions, restoring justice, and laying the groundwork for Haiti’s long-term recovery.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇯🇵 Sanae Takaichi wins LDP leadership, poised to be Japan’s first female prime minister: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has chosen hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, positioning her to become the country’s first female prime minister when parliament votes on 15 October. A staunch nationalist and protégé of Shinzo Abe, Takaichi has vowed to revive Abenomics-style stimulus, reconsider trade terms with President Trump, and tighten restrictions on migrants—policies that may unsettle investors and regional neighbours. 

2️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇹🇷 Baghdad and Erbil strike fragile deal to restart oil exports through Turkey: Iraq’s federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have reached a tentative agreement to resume oil exports via Turkey, ending a two-and-a-half-year halt that crippled Kurdish finances and strained ties with Baghdad. Analysts warn that unclear terms and political volatility could quickly unravel the accord.

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