Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Australia–PNG deal stalls

📰 Australia–PNG deal stalls

and Sudan sanctions renewed

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 18, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Washington decertifies Colombia’s anti-narcotics efforts but keeps aid flowing through a national interest waiver, the UN Security Council renews Sudan sanctions, and Papua New Guinea delays signing a defence treaty with Australia over sovereignty concerns.

Our lead story today warns that the risk of renewed conflict makes it imperative that India and Pakistan establish a high-level diplomatic back channel to prevent another dangerous escalation.

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1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇵🇰 Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with Pakistan amid fears over US security guarantees: Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a sweeping mutual defence pact, pledging to treat any attack on either country as aggression against both. The agreement, years in the making, comes after Israel’s US-backed strike on Qatar shocked Gulf monarchies and raised doubts over Washington’s reliability as a security guarantor. Analysts say the deal could deepen Riyadh-Islamabad military ties, potentially extend Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, and reshape Gulf security dynamics at a moment of regional volatility.

2️⃣ 🇳🇪 🇧🇫 🇲🇱 Sahelian governments expand paramilitary forces as state authority erodes: Security in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali is worsening, with governments increasingly relying on paramilitary groups to fight jihadists and separatists. Militias such as Niger’s Garkouwar Kassa, Burkina Faso’s Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland, and Mali’s Tuareg and Dogon self-defence forces now control large areas, acting as de facto rulers and sometimes committing abuses. Their expansion offers short-term gains but risks fueling ethnic tensions, inviting jihadist reprisals, and eroding central authority, echoing the trajectory of Sudan’s RSF and Congo’s M23.

3️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 Ethiopia boasts of suicide drone production amid growing internal and regional tensions: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that Ethiopia is producing “a high number of suicidal drones” for combat and surveillance, framing the program as essential to defending the country’s existence. State media broadcast footage of Abiy touring the AERO ABAY drone facility, where he claimed the drones could “destroy the enemy crowd” and would be deployed whenever Ethiopia’s survival is threatened. His comments come as his government faces armed uprisings in Oromia and Amhara, where heavy drone strikes have killed thousands of civilians, and rising tensions with Eritrea, with Abiy recently hinting at plans to “recover lost sea access” following the completion of the GERD project.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel uses psychological warfare to force civilians from Gaza City: Israel has introduced a tactic known as “the alarm clock,” detonating small but powerful munitions near populated areas to terrorise civilians into fleeing Gaza City, where hundreds of thousands remain trapped. The offensive combines heavy bombardment and ground incursions, with Israeli officials vowing to dismantle Hamas and free captives, while critics and UN experts warn it amounts to forced displacement aimed at rendering the city uninhabitable. Gaza’s health authorities reported that Israeli forces struck the Al-Rantisi Children’s Hospital three times, forcing the evacuation of critically ill patients under fire.

5️⃣ 🇵🇬 🇦🇺 PNG delays signing of defence treaty with Australia amid sovereignty concerns: Papua New Guinea has delayed signing its landmark Pukpuk mutual defence treaty with Australia, despite Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirming the text of the deal. Albanese downplayed the setback, saying both governments are finalising cabinet approvals and expect to sign within weeks. The treaty would allow joint defence commitments, cross-enlistment in each other’s forces, and enhanced cooperation on training, cybersecurity, and interoperability, but concerns over sovereignty have sparked criticism from PNG figures and complicated Albanese’s Pacific security push.

Major Story

Atif Gulzar, Copyrighted free use, via Wikimedia Commons

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 INDIA AND PAKISTAN URGED TO OPEN DIPLOMATIC BACK CHANNEL

The four-day conflict in May marked the most intense India–Pakistan confrontation in decades, with both nuclear-armed states launching deep strikes into each other’s territory following the massacre of 26 civilians in Jammu and Kashmir. India’s Operation Sindoor targeted alleged militant infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, triggering rapid retaliation and an escalation that included missile strikes, heavy artillery fire, and the first use of weaponised drones across the Line of Control. Danger peaked when India struck three Pakistani air bases, including Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, prompting Islamabad’s Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos, which hit Indian military sites deep inside Indian territory.

Ceasefire and Continued Hostility

Fears of all-out war prompted urgent diplomatic intervention from the U.S., Britain, and Gulf states, culminating in a 10 May ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Both sides quickly claimed victory, redeployed troops, and ramped up nationalist rhetoric. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned that any future terrorist attack will trigger robust retaliation, while Pakistan’s military has pledged to respond in kind to any Indian strike. Diplomatic ties remain frigid, with Islamabad offering talks and New Delhi showing little interest, wary of backlash from its Hindu nationalist base.

Need for a Back Channel

The crisis highlights the urgency of establishing a high-level back channel to prevent another cycle of retaliation. Such a mechanism could reduce misunderstandings, restore confidence, and create space for incremental progress on sensitive issues. Over time, back-channel diplomacy could help address structural grievances, such as Pakistan’s failure to rein in anti-India militants and India’s doctrine of automatic military reprisal.

The Role of Foreign Powers

While Washington and other partners played a crucial role in defusing the May clashes, long-term stability will depend on India and Pakistan exercising restraint. With nuclear weapons as a last resort, the two neighbours share a powerful interest in preventing future brinkmanship from spiralling into war. Sustained quiet diplomacy, combined with external encouragement for dialogue, offers the best hope for avoiding another confrontation and laying the groundwork for a more durable peace.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 UN Security Council extends Sudan sanctions regime and panel of experts mandate: The UN Security Council unanimously renewed the Sudan sanctions regime and extended the Panel of Experts’ mandate until October 2026, despite divisions over whether to address Sudan’s escalating crisis or simply approve a technical roll-over. The resolution aligns the timelines for sanctions and expert reporting, with members urging compliance with the arms embargo, accountability for violations, and stronger action against mercenaries, drones, and atrocities in Darfur. Sudan’s delegate blamed foreign interference—particularly UAE-backed mercenaries—for prolonging the conflict, calling for their elimination as essential to peace.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇴 Washington decertifies Colombia but maintains aid through waiver: For the first time since 1996, Washington has decertified Colombia for failing to meet its anti-narcotics obligations — but simultaneously granted a national interest waiver, ensuring aid and cooperation will continue. The move reflects both record-high coca cultivation and rising tensions between President Donald Trump and Gustavo Petro, who traded blame over the failure of drug policy. While the decision spares Colombia from serious fallout, it injects political heat into Bogotá’s election year and signals that U.S. patience on counternarcotics progress is wearing thin.