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Brazilians rally against Congress efforts to shield lawmakers and pardon Bolsonaro, Venezuela mobilises public militias amid Trump’s threats, and China cautions Papua New Guinea over exclusive defence pact with Australia.

Today’s lead story examines how China, Russia, and North Korea’s red-carpet display of unity is unnerving Washington.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 🇦🇺 UK, Australia and Canada recognise Palestine: In a landmark diplomatic shift, the UK, Australia, Canada and Portugal have formally recognised the State of Palestine, with France and other nations expected to follow at the UN General Assembly. Leaders including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese framed the move as a bid to revive the two-state solution, even as rights groups urged them to pair recognition with sanctions and arms embargoes against Israel. 

2️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇮🇷 Riyadh, Tehran expand cooperation following Israeli strikes on Qatar: Iran’s top security official Ali Larijani travelled to Riyadh for talks with MBS and senior Saudi officials, signalling a deepening political and security dialogue between the two rivals. Iranian media framed the visit as part of a wider strategy to counter Israel and dissuade Riyadh from supporting U.S.-backed efforts to disarm Hizbollah, suggesting that the recent Israeli strike on Doha has created rare convergence between Tehran and Riyadh.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇷🇺 🇪🇪 Germany scrambles Eurofighters after Russian jet violates Baltic airspace: Germany deployed two Eurofighter jets on Sunday to intercept a Russian Il-20M reconnaissance plane flying over the Baltic Sea with its transponders switched off, as Estonia accused Moscow of repeated airspace violations and called an emergency UN Security Council meeting. Tallinn, backed by Poland and Latvia, warned the incursions form part of a deliberate Kremlin escalation aimed at testing NATO’s resolve, prompting Estonia to request consultations under NATO’s Article 4. European leaders urged a firm response, cautioning that Russia’s incremental provocations risk triggering a wider conflict.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇦🇺 🇵🇬 China warns Papua New Guinea against exclusive defence pact with Australia: China has urged Papua New Guinea to avoid signing a defence treaty with Australia that could limit its ability to cooperate with other nations, stressing the need for independence and non-alignment. The warning came after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese left Port Moresby without finalising the long-anticipated Pukpuk mutual defence treaty, which would commit both countries to joint defence in case of attack and allow cross-enlistment in each other’s armed forces. PNG politicians and former military leaders have voiced concern that the pact could undermine the nation’s sovereignty.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 RSF drone strike kills 75 worshippers in El Fasher mosque attack: A Rapid Support Forces drone strike on El Fasher’s al-Daraja neighbourhood killed 75 worshippers sheltering in a mosque, according to first responders, marking one of the city’s deadliest attacks this year. The assault comes as UAE-backed RSF tightens its siege on North Darfur’s last army-controlled stronghold, using artillery, drones, and even constructing an earthen wall to trap civilians. Rights groups warn that if El Fasher falls, mass atrocities could follow, with the UN describing Sudan’s war—already responsible for over 150,000 deaths and 14 million displaced—as one of the century’s worst humanitarian crises.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇰🇵 CHINA, RUSSIA, AND NORTH KOREA’S RED CARPET UNITY IRKS WASHINGTON

When Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un strode side by side on Beijing’s red carpet, the spectacle was more than a ceremony—it was a calculated signal. The three leaders, despite historic distrust, displayed a united front against Washington, highlighting China’s centrality in an emerging anti-Western bloc. This display came as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks a peace deal with Russia, a trade pact with China, and renewed talks with Kim—all of which have been rebuffed.

Fragile Partnership, Shared Grievances

Despite the optics, the China-Russia-North Korea alignment is rooted in necessity rather than trust. History—from the Korean War to the Sino-Soviet split—shows that mutual suspicion, not ideological solidarity, defines these relationships. Today, Beijing seeks to erode U.S. dominance without severing ties with the West, Moscow relies on Chinese trade to sustain its war economy, and Pyongyang leverages both partners for survival while preserving autonomy. Yet, Russia’s deepening military ties with North Korea and Kim’s growing closeness to Moscow have unsettled Beijing, which fears being dragged into an uncontrolled crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

Strategic Openings for Washington

For the United States, this uneasy triangle still offers leverage. Beijing wants economic stability and has incentives to cooperate on containing North Korea and ending the Ukraine war if progress is tied to trade concessions or tariff relief. Russia, increasingly strained, will eventually need a diplomatic off-ramp that only Ukraine and its allies can provide. Kim, meanwhile, still seeks legitimacy and sanctions relief that only the U.S. can deliver, offering an opportunity for phased agreements building on past commitments like the 2018 Singapore summit.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Brazilians protest Congress moves to shield lawmakers and grant Bolsonaro amnesty: Tens of thousands of Brazilians rallied in over a dozen cities against congressional efforts to expand lawmakers’ immunity and advance an amnesty bill that could free Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to 27 years for plotting a coup. Protesters accused Congress of protecting its own while ignoring pressing economic and social issues. Both bills face resistance in the Senate, and President Lula has vowed to veto the amnesty measure.

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 Venezuela offers military training to public amid Trump threats: Military parades and drills were held across Venezuela as President Nicolás Maduro ordered a nationwide training day for members of the Bolivarian National Militia in their local communities. The move came as U.S. President Donald Trump demanded Venezuela accept thousands of deported prisoners and psychiatric patients, warning of “incalculable” consequences if Caracas refuses.

3️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇺🇸 Taliban rejects Trump demand to hand over Bagram airbase: The Taliban has rebuffed US President Donald Trump’s demand to return Bagram airbase, warning that Afghanistan’s sovereignty is non-negotiable and urging Washington to honour past agreements. Trump has threatened consequences if the Taliban refuses, citing Bagram’s strategic value, including its proximity to China’s Lop Nur nuclear site. Kabul officials insist no deal over Afghan soil is possible, underscoring fierce opposition to any renewed US military presence.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics