Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Lebanon and Cyprus sign a maritime demarcation pact, Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro prepares to begin his prison sentence, and Taiwan earmarks an additional $40bn in defence spending to counter China.

In Latin America, new Carnegie research finds that democracies consistently outperform autocracies on core governance outcomes.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar junta issues amnesties ahead of disputed elections: Myanmar’s military government has pardoned or dropped charges against more than 8,600 detainees ahead of December’s elections, portraying the move as an effort to ensure “free and fair” voting despite widespread concern that the polls are neither credible nor democratic. Analysts argue that the amnesty is a calculated PR exercise rather than a genuine step toward reform.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Amnesty warns ceasefire masks ongoing Israeli genocide: Amnesty International has warned that Israel’s actions in Gaza still amount to genocide, arguing that the ceasefire merely creates a “dangerous illusion” of normalcy. The organisation says Israeli authorities have neither changed intent nor halted violations, with hundreds killed since the ceasefire and conditions engineered to inflict a “slow death” through lack of food, water, shelter, and medical care.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Europe debates stronger response to Russian hybrid attacks: As Russian drones, sabotage, and cyber operations intensify across NATO states, European leaders are increasingly advocating for a more assertive and coordinated response, including joint offensive cyber capabilities, rapid attribution of attacks to Moscow, and surprise NATO exercises near Russian borders, according to Politico. 

4️⃣ 🇭🇳 🇺🇸 Honduras election marked by high geopolitical stakes: Hondurans head to the polls amid deep public anxiety over corruption, democratic integrity, and national stability. Allegations of fraud, institutional paralysis, and tensions between electoral authorities have cast doubt on the credibility of the process — a fragile system still shadowed by the 2009 US-backed coup — while external actors including the US, have weighed in, intensifying political polarisation. 

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 India escalates Kashmir crackdown: The explosion near the Red Fort has triggered a sweeping investigation focused on Kashmir, leading to mass raids and detentions. Analysts warn that such harsh measures are deepening alienation and anger in the region, reinforcing longstanding grievances over political disenfranchisement and feeding a renewed cycle of militancy.

Major Story

🇨🇴 🇺🇾 🇧🇴 🇨🇺 DEMOCRACIES OUTPERFORM AUTOCRACIES IN LATIN AMERICA’S GOVERNANCE OUTCOMES

Across the globe, populist and authoritarian leaders increasingly claim they can “deliver” better than democracies, using this narrative to justify eroding checks and balances and restricting civil liberties. Yet this assertion is rarely tested rigorously, not least because autocracies suppress criticism, manipulate data, and limit access to independent information, making it difficult to scrutinise their actual performance. To interrogate these claims, researchers from Carnegie Endowment compared governance outcomes in Latin America, examining both democratic and authoritarian systems through a common analytical lens.

The study evaluates performance across four broad categories:

• Socioeconomic outcomes such as poverty, inequality, employment, and access to essential services, with special attention to exclusion along gender, class, geography, and social or political group lines.

• Access to information, including transparency, academic freedom, censorship, internet controls, and the spread of disinformation.

• Rule of law and political equality, covering separation of powers, corruption control, judicial independence, and how power and opportunity are distributed across different social groups.

• Civil liberties, including freedom of expression, association, religion, movement, access to justice, and property rights.

Comparing four Latin American systems

In Latin America, four contrasting cases were selected: democratic Uruguay and Colombia, and more autocratic Bolivia and Cuba. They span different subregions, population sizes, income levels, and historical trajectories, offering a diverse but comparable set. Uruguay combines long-standing democratic stability with high governance performance, while Colombia is a more fragile but functioning democracy grappling with inequality, violence, and regional disparities. Bolivia represents a hybrid, increasingly authoritarian system with uneven social gains and politicised institutions, whereas Cuba is a consolidated autocracy marked by economic decline caused by draconian sanctions regimes, severe repression, and hollowed-out public services.

Democracies deliver better governance

Across all four categories, Uruguay and Colombia generally outperform Bolivia and Cuba, even allowing for state capacity differences and the complexity of each case. The findings reinforce a broader pattern in the literature: democracies tend to provide better welfare, more reliable access to information, stronger rule of law, and greater civil liberties than autocracies. Latin America’s experience thus undercuts the claim that authoritarianism is a more effective route to development, showing instead that democratic systems, despite imperfections, are better placed to deliver sustainable, accountable governance for their citizens.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇨🇾 Lebanon and Cyprus sign maritime demarcation pact: Lebanon and Cyprus have signed a long-delayed maritime border agreement, laying the groundwork for joint exploration of potential offshore gas resources and wider energy collaboration in the Mediterranean. Lebanon now hopes the agreement will revive interest in its underexplored offshore blocks and pave the way for similar arrangements with Syria.

2️⃣ 🇧🇷 Brazil orders Bolsonaro to begin sentence for coup plot: Brazil’s supreme court has ordered former president Jair Bolsonaro to begin serving his 27-year sentence after finalising his conviction for orchestrating a failed plot to block Lula from taking office. Several senior allies, including former defence and intelligence chiefs, have also been jailed for their roles in the conspiracy to “annihilate” Brazilian democracy. 

3️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan earmarks extra $40bn in defence spending to counter China: Taiwan has announced a $40 billion special defence package, warning that Beijing’s military threats, infiltration efforts, and annexation ambitions are accelerating. President Lai Ching-te said Taiwan’s security “leaves no room for compromise,” stressing that the real danger is not invasion but the nation “giving up” and accepting subjugation under a Hong Kong-style model.

Weekly Updates?

Want weekly updates as well as daily?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Weekly here ⤵️

Grow Your Audience With Us

Build your reach. Strengthen your brand.

We’ve helped brands, podcasts, and media organisations grow audiences using proven short-form video systems.

From scripting and editing to analytics and optimisation — every decision is driven by data, not guesswork.

Visit www.horizonatlasmedia.com to learn more.