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South Korean investigators allege Yoon Suk Yeol planned martial law to sideline rivals, a U.S.-backed operation kills civilians in an al-Shabaab stronghold, and Moscow sues Euroclear as the EU weighs using frozen Russian assets.

In our main story, we turn to Haiti, where the limits of international pressure are exposed amid violent gang ascendancy.

 More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 Western allies outline NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine: Western capitals say negotiations toward ending the Ukraine war have made their most tangible progress yet, with the United States proposing NATO-style security guarantees designed to deter future Russian aggression. Zelenskyy welcomed the offer as a significant breakthrough after talks in Berlin, though he stressed key issues, especially the status of occupied territory, remain unresolved and dependent on Kyiv’s consent.

2️⃣ 🇪🇷 🇪🇹 Eritrea withdraws from IGAD: Eritrea has withdrawn from East African multilateral bloc, IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), accusing it of abandoning its founding mandate and serving as a political instrument against certain member states. The decision comes as relations with Ethiopia sharply deteriorate over Red Sea access and sovereignty disputes, reviving fears of renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa. IGAD rejected the accusations.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Israel advances Atarot settlement to sever East Jerusalem from Ramallah: Jerusalem authorities warn that Israel is moving ahead with plans to build a large settlement on the site of the former Atarot airport north of occupied East Jerusalem in a major escalation in illegal settlement expansion. The project, which would add roughly 9,000 housing units, is intended to break Palestinian territorial continuity between Jerusalem and Ramallah.

4️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇹🇹 🇺🇸 Maduro accuses Trinidad & Tobago of aiding oil tanker seizure: Venezuela has accused Trinidad and Tobago of colluding with the United States in the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker near its coast, denouncing the operation as piracy and a violation of international law. Caracas responded by immediately suspending all gas-related agreements and negotiations with Port of Spain, including plans to develop the Dragon gas field. 

5️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 Russia sues Euroclear as EU weighs using frozen assets: Russia’s central bank has filed a $230bn damages claim against Belgium-based Euroclear, signalling legal retaliation as the EU considers using frozen Russian sovereign assets to finance Ukraine’s defence and economic stability. Moscow has branded the plan theft and threatened counter-seizures of European assets, while EU officials insist the mechanism is lawful and are preparing safeguards against Russian legal action in friendly jurisdictions.

Major Story

🇭🇹 🇺🇳 HAITI’S GANG ASCENDANCY AND THE LIMITS OF FORCE

Haiti’s dominant gang coalition, Viv Ansanm, has transformed criminal violence into a systemic threat to the state. Emerging from Port-au-Prince’s most powerful gangs, it announced itself by encircling the capital in early 2024, precipitating Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation, then expanded outward, choking highways, attacking the airport, and isolating the country. Since 2022, gang violence has killed more than 16,000 people, while operations have diversified into extortion, piracy, and drug trafficking. Yet leaders increasingly frame their campaign as a defence of the poor, blending brutality with political messaging.

This evolution has roots in decades of elite reliance on armed groups. After President Jovenel Moïse’s 2021 assassination, rival coalitions—the G-9 and Gpèp—fought for control, brokered local truces, and ultimately merged. The resulting platform, Viv Ansanm, paired territorial consolidation with a bid for political relevance, including talk of a party and demands for amnesty ahead of a post-transition government due by February 2026.

A tougher security response—by itself insufficient

International partners are pivoting toward a more muscular response. The UN has authorised a new Gang Suppression Force to replace the underpowered Kenya-led mission, promising clearer command, stronger funding, and roughly 5,500 troops, with deployment expected in 2026. In the interim, Haitian authorities have turned to drone strikes, private contractors, retrained forces, and ad hoc community self-defence—measures that risk civilian harm and retaliation if not tightly governed.

A capable force could shift the balance if paired with coordination, accountability, and civilian protection, Crisis Group writes. Force alone is unlikely to uproot gangs embedded in communities or sever their political ties.

Negotiating from strength

If security gains materialise, experts say the state should complement coercion with conditional pathways out: scaled programs for child exit, targeted demobilisation incentives, and a transitional justice framework that rewards disarmament and cooperation without granting blanket impunity. Negotiations undertaken from a position of strength—aimed at reducing civilian harm and dismantling armed networks—offer Haiti a more viable route toward stability than perpetual escalation alone.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 Investigators say Yoon Suk Yeol planned martial law to eliminate rivals: Investigators concluded that former South Korean president Yoon spent more than a year preparing to impose martial law as a means of consolidating control, including by provoking tensions with North Korea to manufacture a pretext. The failed decree collapsed within hours, but prosecutors say it formed part of a deliberate strategy to neutralise the legislature and judiciary, leaving Yoon now jailed and facing rebellion charges.

2️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇺🇸 US-backed operation kills civilians in al-Shabaab stronghold: A US-supported operation involving airstrikes and Somali ground forces killed at least 11 civilians during an assault on an al-Shabaab-controlled area in southern Somalia, according to witnesses. AFRICOM confirmed it carried out strikes in support of Somali troops but did not address civilian casualties, as residents described heavy bombardment of residential areas.

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