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India moves toward deeper Taliban engagement, the EU weighs coercive measures to cut reliance on Chinese imports, and Thailand launches a sweeping asset seizure targeting regional scam networks.

Our lead story focuses on Myanmar’s staged elections and the illusion of political transition.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Trump hosts Rwanda–DRC peace accord in Washington: President Trump hosted the leaders of Rwanda and the DRC to formalise a peace deal aimed at defusing their escalating conflict in eastern Congo, despite ongoing fighting on the ground. Alongside the Accord’s pledge to respect territorial sovereignty, Trump announced forthcoming US rare-earth mining agreements with both countries, tying diplomacy to strategic resource access.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Lebanon and Israel hold first civilian talks in decades: Lebanese and Israeli civilian envoys met for the first time in decades at UNIFIL’s Naqoura headquarters, marking an unprecedented expansion of last year’s ceasefire-monitoring framework and signalling tentative steps toward non-military dialogue. The talks unfold against warnings of renewed escalation, with Israel threatening further strikes and Lebanese officials rejecting any move toward normalisation.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 EU-US backed Lobito corridor risks mass displacement: A joint EU- and US-supported rail and port corridor designed to secure access to critical minerals could force up to 6,500 people from their homes in Kolwezi, according to Global Witness, as buffer zones around the Benguela railway expand. The Lobito Corridor aims to accelerate exports of copper and cobalt for green technologies, but residents fear evictions without compensation amid weak land protections. 

4️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇲🇲 🇰🇭 Thailand launches major asset seizure against regional scam networks: Thai authorities have seized more than $300 million in assets and issued arrest warrants in a sweeping crackdown on transnational online scam syndicates operating across Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia. The investigation targets figures linked to forced-labour fraud compounds, including Cambodian networks accused of laundering illicit profits through Thai energy and financial assets.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 🇺🇸 Anger in Beijing as Trump signs new Taiwan legislation: Taipei welcomed new U.S. legislation requiring periodic reviews of Washington’s engagement guidelines with Taiwan, calling it a reaffirmation of shared democratic values and a boost to bilateral ties. Beijing, however, condemned the law as a breach of its “red line,” warning Washington to halt all official contacts with Taipei and avoid encouraging what it calls separatist forces. 

Major Story

🇲🇲 🇺🇳 MYANMAR’S STAGED ELECTIONS AND THE ILLUSION OF POLITICAL TRANSITION

Myanmar’s military regime has announced tightly managed elections in three phases, beginning on December 28 and concluding in January, in an exercise widely dismissed as political theatre rather than a genuine democratic process. Nearly five years after the 2021 coup, the country remains locked in civil war, with the junta fighting People’s Defence Forces and multiple ethnic armed groups. Thousands of political prisoners remain behind bars, including ousted civilian leaders Win Myint and Aung San Suu Kyi, while vast swathes of territory lie outside military control. As a result, voting will occur in only 274 of Myanmar’s 330 townships, sharply limiting even the appearance of national participation.

Engineering legitimacy through repression

The elections are being organised under a military-dominated Union Election Commission that has systematically eliminated meaningful competition. Dozens of parties have been deregistered for failing to meet regime-defined requirements, and the National League for Democracy has been formally dissolved. The legal environment is equally coercive: criticism of the vote is criminalised under new anti-sabotage laws, with social media dissent punishable by long prison terms or even death sentences. In this context, the ballot is less a mechanism of public consent than a tool to manufacture legitimacy and project administrative control.

Regional pragmatism, not reform

While Western governments are expected to reject the process outright, the junta’s priority is not international approval but regional acceptance. ASEAN has reiterated that peace and inclusive dialogue should precede any election and has refused to send observers. Still, some states may pursue limited engagement out of self-interest. Neighbouring countries are increasingly driven by concerns over border security, narcotics trafficking, cyber-scam networks, irregular migration, and environmental damage from unregulated mining. For them, post-election contact with Myanmar may become politically defensible, stripped of any illusions about reform.

China has signalled quiet support for stabilising mechanisms but remains non-committal publicly. Even Thailand—long the most tolerant of engagement—is now signalling unease. Yet few regional actors are likely to prioritise democratic restoration over immediate security and economic interests.

No transition—only recalibration

Unlike the 2010 elections that preceded Myanmar’s brief reform era, these polls will not mark a transition to civilian rule. Min Aung Hlaing is expected to shift from military chief to president, installing a loyal successor while retaining ultimate influence. Violence and repression will remain core instruments of regime survival.

Yet the process could marginally alter internal power dynamics. A future commander-in-chief, no longer personally implicated in the coup, might one day favour negotiations. This remains a remote possibility—but it is more than the static permanence of unchecked military rule.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇦🇫 India deepens Taliban engagement: India has gradually expanded its engagement with Afghanistan beyond humanitarian aid, reopening its Kabul embassy and reviving development projects as Pakistan’s influence over the Taliban wanes and China’s footprint grows. Yet New Delhi remains unwilling to confer formal recognition, balancing strategic access to Central Asia with concerns over the Taliban’s ideology and human rights record. 

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 EU considers forcing firms to reduce Chinese imports: The EU has unveiled a €3bn plan to curb its dependence on Chinese critical raw materials, warning that it may eventually mandate companies to diversify if voluntary efforts fall short. The new programme aims to “de-risk” supply chains by boosting domestic production and using major European Investment Bank funding to help industry shift away from China, which still provides the majority of the bloc’s key inputs.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel’s Gaza proxy leader killed: Yasser Abu Shabab, head of the Israeli-backed Popular Forces militia in Gaza, has been killed, ending the short-lived rise of a figure who styled himself as an alternative to Hamas despite being widely rejected by Palestinians as a collaborator. The group has been accused by UN sources of systematic looting. 

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