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Israel launched deadly air raids on a Syrian town following a failed ground incursion, while Amnesty International cautions that reforms under Syria’s transitional authorities remain largely superficial. In South Sudan, a looming succession crisis around President Salva Kiir threatens to deepen political fissures and fuel instability.

Our main story turns to Myanmar, where we examine Shan state’s fragmented future.

 More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇬🇼 🇨🇬 African Union suspends Guinea-Bissau: The AU has suspended Guinea-Bissau following a military coup, reiterating its “zero tolerance” stance on unconstitutional power grabs and barring the country from all AU activities until democratic rule is restored. The ousted president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, has fled to Congo-Brazzaville as the military installs a transitional government.

2️⃣ 🇭🇳 🇺🇸 Trump threatens to cut aid to Honduras, should his preferred candidate lose: Hondurans headed to the polls amid an unusually charged atmosphere after President Trump threatened to cut off U.S. aid if his preferred candidate, right-wing Nasry “Tito” Asfura, fails to win— a move critics denounced as blatant foreign interference. With three candidates locked in a tight race and both sides pre-emptively alleging fraud, fears of post-election unrest are mounting.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 Netanyahu seeks presidential pardon: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formally requested a pardon from Israeli President Isaac Herzog, arguing that ending his corruption trial—where he faces charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust—would serve the “public interest” by easing societal tensions and promoting national unity. 

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 US and Ukraine negotiate security guarantees ahead of envoy’s Moscow visit: Ukrainian and U.S. officials have begun high-level talks to refine President Donald Trump’s peace proposal, seeking durable security guarantees and a framework that preserves Ukraine’s sovereignty ahead of a planned Moscow visit by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff. The outcome of these talks will shape the next phase of diplomacy, as Putin signals willingness to use the U.S. proposal as a basis for negotiations.

5️⃣ 🇹🇳 Tunisian court hands heavy sentences to political opponents: A Tunisian appeals court has delivered sentences of up to 45 years in prison against opposition figures and activists accused of plotting against state security, in a case widely condemned as politically motivated and devoid of credible evidence. Human Rights Watch denounced the proceedings as a “parody of justice,” while Amnesty International said the judiciary was being weaponised to silence dissent.

Major Story

🇲🇲 🇨🇳 SHAN STATE’S FRAGMENTED FUTURE: ETHNIC POWER SHIFTS AND THE QUEST FOR INCLUSION AND STABILITY

Since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, Shan State has entered one of its most volatile periods in decades. Its strategic location, ethnic diversity, and central role in illicit trade make it vital to Myanmar’s future stability. Historically controlled through a delicate balance of military dominance, proxy militias, and fragmented ethnic authorities, the coup shattered this equilibrium. With the junta overstretched, non-Shan ethnic armed groups, particularly the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), have seized Shan-majority areas, sidelining Shan armed groups and weakening Shan political influence. China has stepped in as a key broker, securing ceasefires to protect trade routes and curb instability, but its selective engagement has entrenched a fractured political order and resentment among Shan people.

Rising Shan Disempowerment and Nationalist Sentiment

The marginalisation of Shan actors has deepened frustrations, especially among youth who accuse Shan armed groups — the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) — of passivity and self-interest. Many feel caught between predatory non-Shan forces and unaccountable Shan leaders. In areas now controlled by the TNLA and MNDAA, residents report forced taxation, recruitment, cultural exclusion, and abusive administration. These grievances risk coalescing into a defensive, exclusionary Shan nationalism, threatening the longstanding ethos of peaceful coexistence and raising the potential for inter-ethnic conflict. Although some Shan have joined other armed groups or formed local militias for self-defence, there is no cohesive Shan political or military force capable of channelling rising nationalist sentiment constructively.

Outlook

Lasting stability in Shan State ultimately hinges on broader political transformation in Myanmar. As per research from Crisis Group, more inclusive governance, protection of local rights, and support for legitimate civil and political structures can mitigate risks. Without such efforts, deepening grievances could ignite a fractured, militarised Shan nationalism, destabilising not only the state but also Myanmar’s post-regime future.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇸 Power struggle over Kiir succession risks plunging South Sudan deeper into crisis: President Salva Kiir’s ongoing purge of rivals and the sidelining of potential successors, including the ousting of Benjamin Bol Mel, is fuelling speculation that he may be preparing his daughter Adut Salva Kiir for the presidency, triggering fierce political jockeying in Juba. Defection-prone elites are increasingly aligning with Nhial Deng’s emerging movement, while Riek Machar’s treason trial threatens to fracture the opposition and reignite violence.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Amnesty International warns Syrian reforms remain superficial amid fragile transition: Amnesty’s Secretary General said Syria’s post-Assad authorities have signalled a willingness to pursue legal reform, transitional justice, and accountability, but cautioned that these steps remain shallow and democracy is still absent. While engagement with rights organisations show progress, the monitor warned that without deeper institutional overhaul and stronger international support, Syria’s transition risks stalling.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Israel conducts deadly raid on Syrian town after failed ground incursion: Israel killed at least 13 people, including two children, in the Syrian town of Beit Jinn after an attempted raid to detain alleged militants was repelled by local residents, wounding six Israeli soldiers. Israel claimed it was targeting members of Lebanon’s Jamaa al-Islamiya, but the group denied operating outside Lebanon, while Damascus condemned the strike as a “full-fledged war crime.”

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