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Mexican President Sheinbaum resists pressure for a harsher security crackdown after a mayor’s assassination, while Moscow scales back its Middle East footprint to concentrate on Ukraine. Meanwhile, Israeli ceasefire breaches in Lebanon intensify, raising fears of a total breakdown.

In the Pacific, China’s expanding influence and the islands’ fight for sovereignty unfold amid the steady erosion of U.S. power in the region.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇪 🇲🇽 Peru severs diplomatic ties with Mexico over asylum for former prime minister: Lima has cut diplomatic relations with Mexico after the Mexican government granted asylum to former Peruvian Prime Minister Betssy Chávez, who faces prosecution for her alleged role in the failed 2022 coup led by ousted President Pedro Castillo.

2️⃣ 🇲🇬 🇲🇦 🇰🇪 🇹🇿 Gen Z protests reshaping Africa’s political landscape: From Antananarivo to Rabat, a new generation of African protesters is declaring that the social contract has collapsed. Over the past year and a half, youth-led movements have shaken Morocco’s monarchy, forced Kenyan President William Ruto to retract a divisive tax plan, and toppled Madagascar’s government. Unlike the Arab Spring, which targeted autocrats, these uprisings are erupting in nominal democracies that have failed to deliver jobs, services, or accountability.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 EU warns Ukraine to sustain anti-corruption reforms amid membership push: The EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos cautioned that Ukraine must maintain its anti-corruption momentum to stay on track for EU accession, despite its wartime progress on reforms. Her warning followed controversy over Kyiv’s attempt to curb the independence of anti-graft agencies—an effort later reversed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after international backlash. 

4️⃣ 🇧🇦 Bosnian court upholds political ban on Serb leader Milorad Dodik: Bosnia’s Constitutional Court has rejected an appeal by Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, upholding his one-year prison sentence and six-year ban from holding office for defying international envoy Christian Schmidt. Dodik, a pro-Russian nationalist who has long advocated for Republika Srpska’s secession, argued that Schmidt lacked the authority to amend Bosnia’s criminal code, but the court dismissed his claims as “unfounded.” 

5️⃣ 🇻🇳 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Vietnam deepens arms ties with Russia, China as US presence falters: Frustration with erratic U.S. trade and aid policies have nudged Vietnam toward greater military and diplomatic engagement with Russia, China, and North Korea. Leaked records and official interviews show Vietnam quietly ordering advanced Russian air-defence systems, submarine upgrades and fighter jets, often routed through third parties to sidestep sanctions. 

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇸🇧 🇫🇲 🇻🇺 🇫🇯 CHINA’S PACIFIC POWER PLAYS AND THE STRUGGLE FOR ISLAND SOVEREIGNTY

As U.S.-China rivalry intensifies across the Indo-Pacific, the Pacific Islands, twelve small nations scattered between the Philippines and Hawaii, have become a new front in the contest for regional influence. Over the past two decades, Beijing has poured investments, loans, and infrastructure projects into the islands, courting governments that see Chinese support as a source of leverage and development. Yet as China’s influence deepens, the islands’ “Blue Pacific” vision of unity and self-determination faces growing strain, with democratic institutions under mounting pressure.

Washington’s wavering engagement

The United States, long complacent in this hemisphere, began reversing course under the first Trump and Biden administrations, launching new partnerships and aid programs to counter China’s reach. But the second Trump administration’s retrenchment—marked by USAID’s regional mission closure, aid freezes, and blanket tariffs on island economies—has weakened U.S. credibility. Climate change denial has further alienated Pacific nations that view rising seas as an existential threat. Washington’s allies in Canberra have stepped in, but their resources are insufficient to match Beijing’s scale.

Beijing’s maritime ambitions

China’s Pacific strategy has evolved from diplomacy and investment to securing strategic footholds. Through dual-use infrastructure—ports, airstrips, and maritime mapping—Beijing aims to extend its naval reach and undermine U.S. dominance across successive “island chains.” Since 2019, several nations have switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, tightening Beijing’s grip. The People’s Liberation Army now routinely operates in Micronesia and Melanesia, while Chinese coast guard and research vessels expand surveillance and law enforcement roles under the guise of cooperation.

Preserving sovereignty amid rivalry

For Pacific governments, the challenge lies in balancing great-power competition without losing autonomy. Transactional aid and militarisation pose spoilers to the Pacific Islands Forum’s pledge to keep the region demilitarised and free from external coercion.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇽 Sheinbaum rejects calls for tougher security crackdown after mayor’s killing: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has ruled out revising her security strategy after Uruapan Mayor Carlos Manzo Rodríguez was gunned down during Day of the Dead festivities in Michoacán. Defending her approach, Sheinbaum said homicide rates had fallen and accused critics of exploiting the tragedy, insisting that “militarisation and war” had already failed.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇸🇾 🇺🇦 Moscow retreats from Middle East to focus on Ukraine and leverage against the West: Russia is scaling back its role in West Asia, abandoning its earlier ambition to shape the region’s balance of power in favour of a minimalist strategy centred on presence, pragmatism, and leverage. Instead, Moscow seeks to maintain open channels with all actors, trade influence for economic opportunities, and avoid being drawn into regional conflicts such as the Iran–Israel confrontation.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israeli ceasefire violations in Lebanon escalate: Nearly a year after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, Israeli airstrikes and cross-border incursions persist, undermining Beirut’s efforts—backed by the UN—to assert control and disarm Hizbollah. Newly elected President Joseph Aoun walks a tightrope between Western pressure and expectations — and Lebanon’s domestic realities.

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