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📰 Bolsonaro convicted

📰 Bolsonaro convicted

and global press freedom and democracy declines

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
September 12, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

From South America, Brazil’s supreme court convicts Jair Bolsonaro for attempting a coup, while Colombia edges perilously closer to renewed conflict. In Africa, Sudan’s war destabilises Chad, while in Libya, Prime Minister Dbeibah faces off with Al-Rada in a Tripoli power struggle.

Our lead story examines the case for decentralisation as Syria seeks a post-Assad political settlement.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Brazil supreme court convicts Bolsonaro for coup attempt: Brazil’s supreme court has convicted Jair Bolsonaro, making him the first former president in the country’s history found guilty of attempting a coup. Three of five judges ruled that Bolsonaro led a “criminal organisation” to overturn the 2022 election won by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The plot allegedly included plans to assassinate Lula, his vice-president, and Justice Alexandre de Moraes, abandoned only after military chiefs refused to back Bolsonaro. The conviction also extends to seven top officials, including senior officers—unprecedented since Brazil’s military dictatorship. Bolsonaro, under house arrest since August, faces a potential decades-long sentence but may serve it at home due to health issues. He remains barred from elections, though conservatives are pushing an amnesty bill likely to face constitutional challenge.

2️⃣ 🇨🇴 Bogota struggles to contain Colombia’s slide back to conflict: Colombia’s fragile peace is collapsing less than a decade after the 2016 deal ended half a century of war. In regions like Guaviare, once freed from FARC control, residents now live under the rule of new armed groups that enforce curfews, issue ID cards, and mete out punishment. Homicides and kidnappings are again rising, while violence has intensified ahead of the 2026 elections, including the assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay. President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” strategy, aimed at negotiating with all armed groups, has stalled as criminal networks multiply, driven less by ideology than by control of lucrative illicit economies. With U.S. aid under review and state presence weak in rural areas, Colombia risks sliding back into prolonged instability unless dialogue and development accompany security efforts.

3️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 Ethiopia’s Red Sea claims raise risk of war with Eritrea: The Global Yiakl Eritrean Movement has warned of an imminent conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, urging urgent international action to prevent catastrophe. Addis Ababa has escalated threats against Eritrea, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed calling access to the Red Sea a matter of “survival” and vowing to “correct” what he terms a “historical mistake.” Ethiopia’s mobilisation near the border and propaganda campaigns stoking public support for war violate international law and challenge the binding 2002 boundary ruling. While Eritrea’s authoritarian regime exploits the crisis to tighten repression, a renewed war would devastate both nations, fuel humanitarian disaster, and destabilise the Horn of Africa. The movement called on the UN, AU, EU and others to condemn Ethiopia’s rhetoric, press for de-escalation, and uphold Eritrea’s sovereignty.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Smotrich unveils West Bank annexation plan: Israeli Finance Minister and de facto West Bank governor Bezalel Smotrich unveiled a sweeping annexation proposal that would fold more than 80 percent of the West Bank into Israel, reducing Palestinian presence to six isolated cities including Ramallah and Hebron. He warned the Palestinian Authority (PA) would be “uprooted like Hamas” if it resisted and urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to adopt the plan as his legacy. The proposal follows escalating Israeli raids on PA-controlled cities and Smotrich’s financial clampdown that has crippled the Authority’s ability to function. While some describe his plan as “maximalist,” most of Israel’s political spectrum supports annexation in some form, whether of settlements, Area C, or the Jordan Valley. U.S. backing remains pivotal: Washington has long resisted formal annexation, yet continues to underwrite Israel’s de facto control of the illegally occupied territories.

5️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇲🇲 🇰🇷 Global democracy and press freedom suffer sharpest decline in half a century: Press freedom has experienced its steepest drop in 50 years, reflecting a wider democratic downturn, according to the International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Report 2025. The study found democracy declined in 94 countries over the past five years, with press freedoms worsening in a quarter of them. Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Myanmar, and South Korea saw the sharpest falls, the latter under former president Yoon Suk Yeol’s crackdown on critical media. The report also highlighted press restrictions in Palestine, where nearly 200 journalists have been killed since October 2023, and Israel has blocked foreign media from Gaza. While Chile, Botswana, and South Africa saw gains, the US has scaled back democracy promotion abroad, with its institutions increasingly cited as examples of executive overreach rather than democratic resilience.

Major Story

source: Getty

🇸🇾 DECENTRALISATION KEY TO SYRIA’S POST-ASSAD FUTURE

For more than five decades, Syria was governed through an intensely centralised system. Under Hafez al-Assad and later his son Bashar, Damascus controlled nearly every aspect of political and economic life. Provincial governors were appointed from the capital, budgets dictated centrally, and local councils functioned only as extensions of state authority. This rigid model not only deepened corruption and marginalisation but also fuelled the 2011 uprising. While the regime’s 2012 constitution promised “administrative decentralisation,” in practice it left local authorities powerless.

The Case for Decentralisation

Assad’s collapse has reignited debate over Syria’s political future, particularly whether the country should adopt a decentralised model. Advocates argue it would allow communities long excluded from decision-making to manage local affairs, prevent a return to authoritarianism, and reduce sectarian tensions. Historical precedent exists: Syria’s 1920 constitution envisioned autonomous districts with local parliaments, while grassroots councils that emerged during the civil war showed communities’ capacity for self-rule.

Kurdish Autonomy as a Model

The strongest demand for decentralisation comes from Syria’s Kurds, who have developed de facto autonomy through the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). This experiment, rooted in inclusivity, uses co-chair systems for gender and ethnic balance and ensures education in Kurdish, Arabic, and Syriac. Kurdish leaders argue their survival of wartime pressures proves that autonomy can be extended nationally, offering a practical template for a multi-ethnic, decentralised Syria. Minorities such as the Druze and segments of the Alawite community have also pressed for greater local control, particularly in the wake of violence targeting their populations. Importantly, decentralisation would benefit not just minorities but also Sunni Arab regions devastated by war and economic neglect. Local empowerment could address grievances, accelerate reconstruction, and enhance accountability while maintaining national unity.

A Balanced Framework

Opponents warn decentralisation risks partition. Yet a carefully designed system could devolve authority over services, economic planning, and local governance to elected councils, while reserving foreign policy, defence, and fiscal oversight for Damascus. Such a model would mirror arrangements in other multi-ethnic states, balancing unity with diversity.

Conclusion

Syria’s collapse has created both peril and possibility. A decentralised system reflecting its ethnic and sectarian diversity offers the most credible path to reconciliation and stability. If Syrians and their international partners seize this moment, they may yet build a state resilient enough to avoid another cycle of authoritarianism and war.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 🇪🇺 Israel escalates strikes in Yemen as EU threatens sanctions: Israel launched heavy airstrikes in Yemen on Wednesday, killing at least 35 people and injuring more than 130, according to Houthi officials. Most casualties occurred in Sanaa, where a military headquarters and fuel station were hit. The escalation followed a Houthi drone strike on an Israeli airport days earlier. At the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to seek sanctions and suspend some trade with Israel over its Gaza campaign, deepening Israel’s diplomatic isolation after its controversial strike on Hamas negotiators in Qatar. In Gaza, Israeli forces continued bombardments around Gaza City, urging mass evacuations despite worsening famine conditions. Hamas vowed further resistance, while Houthi leaders warned of more attacks, raising the risk of broader regional conflict.

2️⃣ 🇱🇾 🇺🇳 Dbeibah confronts Al-Rada in Tripoli power struggle: Tensions are mounting in Tripoli, Libya, as Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah moves to curb the influence of the Special Deterrence Force (Al-Rada), a powerful militia controlling Meitiga airport and detention facilities since 2011. Although no fighting is underway, pro-government forces have mobilised, raising fears of clashes in densely populated neighbourhoods. Al-Rada, embedded in the Suq al-Juma district and enjoying strong local support, has resisted Dbeibah's authority, with past confrontations erupting into heavy fighting. While framed as a bid to centralise security, Dbeibah's push also carries political motives: the UN has proposed replacing him under a new unity government, which he opposes. Many see his campaign against Al-Rada as an effort to secure his grip on power—an escalation that could plunge the capital into urban warfare.

3️⃣ 🇹🇩 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 Sudan war destabilises Chad as displaced populations swell, humanitarian agencies falter: Sudan’s two-year conflict is spilling into Chad, where more than a million refugees from Darfur have overwhelmed aid systems and inflamed local tensions. Humanitarian agencies warn of “catastrophic” conditions as U.S. funding cuts deepen the crisis, fuelling crime, xenophobia and rising mortality in Chad’s impoverished east. At the same time, President Mahamat Déby Itno faces growing dissent within his ruling Zaghawa clan, angered by reports that the UAE is funnelling weapons to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) through Chadian territory. Though Déby denies the allegations, UN findings and regional evidence point otherwise, sparking Sudanese threats of retaliation. With desertions in the army and clan divisions widening, Chad risks being drawn into Sudan’s war unless Déby restores neutrality and secures broader regional support.