Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Today Xi and Putin reaffirm their partnership at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, Mexico inaugurates its first elected Supreme Court under scrutiny over judicial independence, and von der Leyen’s visit to a Bulgarian arms plant triggers nationalist protests.

At the heart of today’s coverage Trump’s envoy revives US focus on the Maghreb.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇺🇳 RSF builds barrier around El Fasher, UNICEF warns of catastrophic child suffering: After 500 days under siege, Al Fasher in North Darfur has become the epicentre of Sudan’s child crisis, UNICEF said, with malnutrition, disease, and violence claiming young lives daily. The UAE-backed RSF have constructed a military-purpose berm around El Fasher, trapping some 260,000 civilians, including 130,000 children, who have been cut off from aid for over 16 months. Since April 2024, more than 1,100 grave violations have been verified in the city, including the killing or maiming of over 1,000 children and forced recruitment. At least 6,000 children with Severe Acute Malnutrition are without treatment, while attacks have destroyed hospitals, schools, and nutrition centres. UNICEF urged an immediate humanitarian pause and safe, sustained access to deliver lifesaving food, medicine, and clean water.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 President Prabowo orders crackdown as Indonesia reels from deadly protests over lawmakers’ perks: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced that political parties had agreed to cut lawmakers’ allowances in an effort to calm nationwide protests that have left at least five people dead. Demonstrations, sparked by anger over excessive parliamentary benefits, escalated into riots last week, with state buildings torched and the home of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati looted. Prabowo, flanked by party leaders at the Presidential Palace, vowed “firm action” by police and military against rioters, some of whom he accused of treason and terrorism. Student groups dismissed the concessions as insufficient, citing oligarchic politics and inequality as root causes, and vowed further demonstrations. Amnesty International criticised the president’s rhetoric as “excessive.” Investor confidence has slumped, with markets hit by heavy selloffs amid ongoing unrest.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 United States blocks Palestinian officials from UN assembly in violation of treaty obligations: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Washington will bar and revoke visas for members of the Palestine Liberation Organization and Palestinian Authority ahead of the UN General Assembly, exempting only accredited mission staff in New York. The move mirrors the Reagan administration’s 1988 refusal to grant Yasser Arafat entry, widely condemned then as a breach of the UN Headquarters Agreement. Critics say today’s decision is similarly designed to silence Palestinian voices at a moment when several Western governments are weighing recognition of Palestinian statehood. While the US justifies the restrictions as a stand against “terrorism” and “lawfare,” observers argue it further entrenches Washington’s role as Israel’s diplomatic shield, stripping Palestinians of even legal and diplomatic avenues for asserting sovereignty.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇮🇳 🇹🇷 Xi and Putin reaffirm partnership at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, underscoring their “limitless” partnership as both leaders confront heightened tensions with the United States. The summit, the bloc’s largest since its founding in 2001, gathered leaders from ten member states and sixteen partner nations, including India’s Narendra Modi and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Xi emphasised that the SCO has become a vital force for a “shared future for mankind,” while Putin called the meeting a step toward consolidating Eurasian solidarity and building a multipolar order. Modi’s first visit to China in seven years came days after Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods, highlighting how Trump’s trade policies are reshaping alliances.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 US court rules President Trump’s global tariffs illegal, trade allies ‘confused’: The US Court of Appeals ruled 7-4 that President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), were issued unlawfully, upholding an earlier trade court decision. Judges noted the law never mentions tariffs, rejecting Trump’s claim of a trade “emergency.” Still, the court left the levies in place while the case proceeds, a partial win for the administration. Democratic-led states and small businesses argue the tariffs burden Americans with higher costs and demand billions in refunds. New York Attorney General Letitia James said the ruling proves Trump “cannot invent a fake emergency.” The administration may appeal to the Supreme Court, as uncertainty clouds ongoing trade talks with China, India, Mexico, and others impacted by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Major Story

🇲🇦 🇪🇭 🇩🇿 🇹🇳 🇱🇾 TRUMP’S ENVOY REVIVES US FOCUS ON THE MAGHREB

In July, President Donald Trump dispatched Massad Boulos—businessman, Lebanese émigré, and father-in-law to his daughter Tiffany—on an ambitious diplomatic mission to the Maghreb. Visiting Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, and Morocco, Boulos sought to revive negotiations on the Western Sahara, address Libya’s fragmentation, and ease mounting Algerian–Moroccan tensions. His appointment underscored Trump’s preference for trusted insiders over career diplomats, but also signalled Washington’s renewed interest in a region long viewed as peripheral.

Reclaiming Influence in a Strategic Vacuum

Europe’s retreat from the Maghreb, coupled with Russia’s expanding defence ties and China’s Belt and Road investments, has created a vacuum. Washington now seeks to anchor itself by advancing what Trump brands “economic peace”: transforming disputes into opportunities for trade, investment, and integration. For the White House, stabilising North Africa is not only about curbing insecurity but also about limiting Moscow’s arms sales to Algeria and Beijing’s infrastructure diplomacy.

Boulos carried a clear message. US engagement would hinge on turning conflict into commerce. He urged regional leaders to accept compromise, unlock trade flows, and embrace integration within the Arab Maghreb Union. The timing is significant: Algeria’s costly backing of the Polisario Front, Morocco’s expanding defence ties with Washington, and Libya’s fragile oil economy all converge at a moment of heightened US leverage.

Western Sahara and the Algerian Dilemma

The Sahara dispute remains the region’s deepest fault line. Washington reiterated its recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the “Southern Provinces,” touting Rabat’s autonomy plan as the only “serious and realistic” framework, at the expense of the UN-led process for Sahrawi self determination. Remarkably, Algerian media published Boulos’s remarks—an unprecedented tolerance that analysts interpreted as a tentative gesture, perhaps laying groundwork for compromise. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has admitted the burden of financing the Polisario resembles “the wealth of Qarun,” hinting at fatigue and possible readiness to trade political rigidity for economic relief.

Trade as Diplomacy

The Trump administration is wielding tariffs and trade deals as strategic levers. While Morocco enjoys preferential access under its 2006 free trade agreement, Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya face steep tariff hikes, some as high as 30%. Morocco has become Washington’s main partner in the region, with bilateral trade surpassing $3.7bn in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, new US investments in Libya’s energy sector, coupled with punitive tariffs on Algeria, illustrate Washington’s intent to reward alignment and penalise drift toward Moscow or Beijing.

A Fragile Path Forward

Whether Boulos’s mission can reshape entrenched conflicts remains uncertain. The Maghreb’s divisions are profound, and decades of mistrust cannot be undone by promises of investment alone. Yet the mission reflects a strategic recalibration: The US, according to Al Majalla,  is no longer content to cede North Africa to European neglect, Russian arms, or Chinese capital.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇧🇬 Von der Leyen visit to Bulgarian arms plant sparks nationalist protests: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Bulgaria’s state-owned arms producer VMZ Sopot was met with protests from far-right Revival and nationalist Velichie parties, underscoring divisions over the country’s expanding defence role. Accompanied by Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, von der Leyen praised Bulgaria’s contribution to European security, highlighting plans to create up to 1,000 jobs and boost ammunition output. The visit followed Rheinmetall’s announcement of two new factories, positioning Bulgaria as Europe’s largest gunpowder producer. Protesters denounced the focus on “dirty and dangerous” gunpowder rather than advanced defence technology, with Revival leader Kostadin Kostadinov accusing the EU of false promises of economic growth. The stop formed part of von der Leyen’s regional tour to reassure frontline states bordering Russia and Belarus.

2️⃣ 🇲🇽 ​​Mexico inaugurates elected Supreme Court amid scrutiny over independence: Mexico’s first elected Supreme Court convened Monday, with observers watching whether it can remain independent of the ruling Morena party, which pushed through the country’s first judicial elections. Only three of the nine justices have prior high court experience, while new president Hugo Aguilar, a defender of Indigenous rights, leads the bench. Former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador argued that elections would make judges more accountable, though critics warned of politicisation, especially after reports of campaign pamphlets linking candidates to Morena. The court faces nearly 1,400 pending cases, including challenges to mandatory pretrial detention, state abortion bans, transgender rights, and recent mining reforms. Its decisions will shape whether Mexico’s judiciary continues as a check on government power—or bends to partisan influence.

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Israeli airstrike kills Houthi prime minister Ahmed al-Rahawi in Sana’a: The Houthis announced that Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Sana’a Thursday, alongside several ministers and officials. Rebel leader Mahdi al-Mashat vowed revenge and warned foreign companies to leave Israel. Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz hailed the strike as “a crushing blow” and said it marked “only the beginning.” The attack targeted a villa in Beit Baws during a government meeting, according to tribal sources. Al-Rahawi, a former ally of ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh, became Houthi premier in 2024. His death is the most significant loss of a Houthi leader since US and Israeli strikes began in response to Red Sea shipping attacks. Analysts say the escalation signals Israel’s shift from hitting infrastructure to dismantling the Houthis’ leadership structure.

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