Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Israel attacks UN peacekeepers in South Lebanon, Iraq’s Sudani bloc leads an election that opens a fraught coalition fight, and Mohammed bin Salman travels to Washington seeking far-reaching US defence and nuclear assurances.

Our main focus today is Chile, where national elections are defined by surging fears over crime and a stagnating economy.

 More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 🇺🇸 Iran signals openness to US nuclear talks: Tehran says it is prepared to resume nuclear negotiations with Washington, but only if the US engages “with dignity and respect.” He insisted Iran emerged militarily and politically stronger from the June Israeli-US strikes on its nuclear sites, denied having undeclared facilities, and said UN inspectors cannot yet access bombed locations for security reasons. 

2️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇨🇳 Japan protests China’s travel warning after remarks on Taiwan escalate tensions: Tokyo has lodged a formal protest after Beijing urged Chinese citizens to avoid travelling to Japan, a move that followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s assertion that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could pose an “existential threat” to Japan. The dispute has heightened concerns that relations may deteriorate further under Japan’s new leader, who favours a stronger military posture amid escalating Chinese pressure around Taiwan.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 Israel lobbies US to close door on Palestinian statehood before UNSC vote: Tel Aviv is mounting a last-minute push to reshape a US-drafted UN Security Council resolution that would deploy an international force to oversee security and reconstruction in Gaza, with the Israeli army withdrawing to a ‘buffer zone’. Israeli officials want the mission to wield broader executive authority than currently outlined—including the power to enforce “Hamas violations,” conduct disarmament operations, and coordinate directly with Israeli forces.

4️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Washington pressures Thailand to uphold Cambodia ceasefire amid renewed clashes: The US has urged Thailand to recommit to its ceasefire with Cambodia, warning that ongoing trade negotiations could be paused after Bangkok accused Phnom Penh of planting new landmines along the frontier. The breakdown of the truce—followed by deadly exchanges of gunfire—prompted the Office of the US Trade Representative to signal a halt to talks.

5️⃣ 🇸🇸 Kiir Removes Bol Mel Amid succession tensions in South Sudan: South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has abruptly dismissed Benjamin Bol Mel as vice president and deputy party leader, severing ties with a figure long rumoured to be his preferred successor. Kiir also removed the central bank governor and revenue authority chief—both allies of Bol Mel—deepening political turmoil as succession questions intensify and violence escalates. 

Major Story

🇨🇱 CHILE VOTES AMID SURGING PUBLIC ANXIETY OVER CRIME AND ECONOMIC STAGNATION

Chileans headed to the polls on Sunday for a presidential and parliamentary election dominated by fears of rising organised crime and irregular migration. With mandatory voting in place and 15.7 million citizens registered, turnout was strong, yet no candidate is expected to cross the 50% threshold, setting up a runoff on 14 December. Although the race appears polarised between Communist former labour minister Jeannette Jara and ultraconservative lawyer José Antonio Kast, both have shifted toward the political centre as public insecurity becomes the defining issue.

Voters demand tougher crime and immigration policies 

Across the political spectrum, candidates have adopted hard-line positions on immigration and gang violence. Kast has promised mass deportations and a fortified northern border, while Jara, despite her left-wing credentials, has proposed new prisons and the removal of foreign nationals convicted of drug crimes. Centre-right candidate Evelyn Matthei and libertarian firebrand Johannes Kaiser are also polling competitively, splitting the right-wing vote and likely giving Jara an edge in the first round.

Economic stagnation and social pressures fuel discontent

Economic frustration also looms large. Jara has emphasised fiscal restraint alongside expanded social protections, including a proposed $800 monthly “living” income. Kast, by contrast, has pledged deep spending cuts and tax reductions, drawing comparisons with Argentina’s Javier Milei. Many Chileans, however, remain sceptical of radical reforms after years of slow growth and rising unemployment.

Runoff risks and a shifting political landscape

While Jara is widely expected to lead the first round, analysts note that she could struggle in a runoff against a consolidated right-wing challenger promising harsher security measures. Sunday’s vote underscores a profound political shift since 2021, when Gabriel Boric’s reformist agenda captured public imagination. Today, concerns over crime, migration, and economic precarity dominate—a transformation that is likely to shape Chile’s political trajectory long beyond this election.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Israel attacks UN peacekeepers in South Lebanon: UNIFIL says the attack constitutes a grave breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, the foundation of both the 2006 ceasefire and last year’s truce with Hizbollah. Lebanese authorities have condemned the strike as another violation of sovereignty, warning that repeated Israeli fire on peacekeepers threatens stability in the south and obstructs the army’s mandated deployment alongside UNIFIL.

2️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 MbS seeks sweeping US defence and nuclear guarantees: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is arriving in Washington with an ambitious agenda, seeking a defence pact stronger than Qatar’s. Analysts say the crown prince wants a durable, multifaceted partnership—one that spans nuclear cooperation, cutting-edge weapons such as F-35s and AI-enabled drones, and deep localisation of US defence technology—to position Saudi Arabia as a central power in the emerging multipolar order.

3️⃣ 🇮🇶 Sudani coalition leads Iraq vote as parties begin contentious coalition building: Iraq’s sixth parliamentary election since 2003 saw turnout climb to 56% despite a Sadrist boycott, a notable rise from 2021’s 43%, though the voter roll is smaller than the country’s eligible population. Iran-aligned factions posted mixed returns, and while Sudani appears positioned for a second term, complex coalition negotiations lie ahead, with final outcomes dependent on court certification and likely legal disputes.

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