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South Sudan’s Vice President Machar’s treason trial heightens political turmoil, the UK finalises an £8bn Typhoon jet deal with Turkey despite human rights concerns, and Palestinian factions agree to establish a technocratic administration in Gaza.

Our lead story examines security guarantees and the future of Ukraine’s defence.

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Top 5 Stories

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5️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇱🇹 🇧🇾 EU urged to tighten sanctions on Belarus over hybrid warfare tactics: Lithuania has called on the European Union to impose tougher trade restrictions on Belarus to cripple its military industry and curb what it describes as “hybrid warfare” tactics against the bloc. The demand came after Lithuania shut its border with Belarus following a series of balloon incursions carrying smuggled items.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 SECURITY GUARANTEES AND THE FUTURE OF UKRAINE’S DEFENCE

Security guarantees are formal commitments, usually codified in treaties, where one state pledges to defend another if attacked. They differ from political “assurances,” which carry no legal weight. Such guarantees underpin alliances like NATO, where an attack on one member could trigger a collective response. Yet even NATO’s Article 5, often seen as sacrosanct, stops short of mandating the use of force, requiring only that allies act “as they deem necessary.” Similar arrangements exist within the EU’s Treaty on European Union, though its mutual-defence clause is largely symbolic compared with NATO’s military capacity.

Guarantees, therefore, depend less on their wording than on the credibility and capability of the guarantor. The United States, for instance, reinforces its commitments by stationing forces and weapons on allied territory, while Russia’s deployment of nuclear arms in Belarus serves a parallel deterrent purpose. When such pledges are ignored—as history shows—the deterrent effect collapses, eroding confidence among allies and emboldening adversaries.

Ukraine’s Pursuit of Binding Protection

Ukraine’s demand for binding guarantees stems from its betrayal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Moscow, Washington, and London offered only non-binding assurances to respect its sovereignty. Russia’s subsequent annexation of Crimea and full-scale invasion in 2022 convinced Kyiv that only legally enforceable guarantees, ideally NATO membership, can prevent future aggression. Unable to join the alliance amid war, Ukraine now seeks alternative pacts ensuring rapid military support and long-term funding for its armed forces. Kyiv hopes such commitments will deter renewed attacks and strengthen its negotiating position in any settlement with Moscow.

Diverging Visions in Washington, Europe, and Moscow

European governments remain divided. Some, like France, favour “strategic ambiguity,” while others, such as Finland, argue guarantees must entail readiness to fight. The United States, wary of nuclear escalation, has refused to extend direct defence pledges. Russia, by contrast, frames “security guarantees” as mechanisms to limit Ukraine’s military capacity and enshrine its own dominance, proposing collective arrangements that would effectively grant Moscow veto power over any Western response.

The Only Viable Deterrent

For now, the most realistic safeguard for Ukraine is its own military strength, backed by enduring Western support, intelligence sharing, and arms production. Hollow guarantees that fail to deter or defend would be worse than none at all; lasting peace will depend not on promises, but on capability, credibility, and unity of purpose.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇸 Machar’s treason trial deepens South Sudan’s political crisis: South Sudan’s Vice President Riek Machar appeared in court last month alongside 20 co-defendants. Supporters and observers have condemned the proceedings as politically motivated, accusing President Salva Kiir’s government of weaponising the judiciary to eliminate its main rival and unravel the 2018 peace agreement that ended a devastating civil war.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Palestinian factions agree to technocratic Gaza administration: Major Palestinian factions, meeting in Cairo, have agreed to transfer control of Gaza’s administration to an independent technocratic committee tasked with overseeing essential services in coordination with Arab and international partners. The factions also called for revitalising the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the unified representative of the Palestinian people.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇹🇷 UK seals £8bn Typhoon jet deal with Turkey despite human rights concerns: Prime Minister Keir Starmer has signed an £8 billion agreement to sell 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Turkey, hailing the deal as a boost for British industry and NATO security. Critics say the sale risks legitimising Ankara’s human rights abuses, including the jailing of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu on fresh “espionage” charges. 

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