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Today, G7 leaders bridge divides on trade and security, unveiling measures implicitly aimed at China. In the Middle East, Israel intensifies its strikes on southern Lebanon, while the PKK’s dissolution signals a potential shift in Turkey’s domestic politics.

In today's lead story, we take a closer look at the fragile peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan—and what’s at stake.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Pakistan blames India for deadly bombing in Balochistan: Pakistan has accused India of orchestrating a suicide bombing that killed three children in Balochistan’s Khuzdar district on Wednesday. The attack targeted a school bus en route to an army public school, killing five—including the driver and security guard—and injuring dozens more. While no group has claimed responsibility, Pakistan’s military alleged India had “planned and orchestrated” the attack using proxy militants. India rejected the accusation as “baseless.” Tensions between the two nuclear powers remain high following recent missile exchanges and a fragile 10 May ceasefire. Islamabad has intensified claims of Indian-backed terror in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where attacks by groups like the BLA and TTP have surged. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack as evidence of India’s “hostility.”

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇱🇹 🇷🇺 Germany deploys troops to Lithuania in first foreign deployment since WWII: Chancellor Friedrich Merz marked Germany’s first permanent overseas military deployment since WWII during a visit to Lithuania, where he inaugurated the 45th Armoured Brigade—part of Berlin’s expanded effort to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. The 4,800-strong combat unit, stationed in Vilnius, is seen as a key deterrent against Russia and a symbol of Germany’s commitment to Baltic allies. Merz stressed that European defence must urgently scale up in light of Moscow’s “aggressive revisionism” and called for greater defence industrial capacity within Europe. Lithuania, bordering Russia and Belarus, praised Germany’s support and pledged to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP. Merz also reaffirmed Germany’s aim to meet that benchmark by 2032. His firm stance echoes and builds on Scholz’s earlier Zeitenwende defence policy shift.

3️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇸🇩 South Sudan faces economic collapse amid oil export threat from Sudan: Sudan’s military-led government has warned it may halt oil exports from South Sudan, a move that could cripple Juba’s economy, which relies on oil for over 90% of its revenue. The announcement followed drone attacks by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Port Sudan—where South Sudan’s oil is shipped—prompting Khartoum to claim the damage hindered exports. Analysts suggest Sudan’s army is pressuring Juba to sever ties with the RSF and its ally, the SPLM-N. South Sudan, meanwhile, is financially vulnerable: most oil profits go to foreign firms or debt servicing, and without exports, President Salva Kiir’s fragile coalition could collapse. With no economic fallback, growing civilian hardship, and regional actors like the UAE and Uganda involved, the risk of South Sudan becoming a proxy battleground is intensifying.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UN warns of imminent mass infanticide amid Israel’s Gaza blockade: The UN’s humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher has warned that as many as 14,000 infants in Gaza could die within 48 hours if life-saving aid, including baby food and nutrition supplies, is not urgently delivered. Speaking to BBC Radio, Fletcher said hundreds of aid trucks remain stalled at the border, with only five allowed in through Kerem Shalom this week—a figure he called a "drop in the ocean." The 11-week Israeli blockade has plunged Gaza into a humanitarian disaster, with acute malnutrition threatening over 70,000 children under five. International pressure on Israel has surged, with 22 countries urging it to allow full humanitarian access.

5️⃣ 🇧🇴 Bolivia’s Left in turmoil as electoral tribunal bars Morales and Rodríguez: Judicial rulings have blocked the electoral bids of Bolivia’s two most prominent left-wing figures, former President Evo Morales and Senate President Andrónico Rodríguez. Morales was disqualified after his chosen party lost legal status, while Rodríguez’s candidacy remains under review by the electoral tribunal. Both men’s supporters have threatened mass protests if the bans are not overturned, with cocalero groups loyal to Morales vowing roadblocks. Critics allege political interference by the ruling government to sideline rivals and consolidate control of the left under Interior Minister Eduardo del Castillo, now the official MAS candidate. Meanwhile, Bolivia’s right-wing candidates face no such hurdles.

Major Story

 🇦🇲 🇦🇿 A FRAGILE PEACE IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

Nearly two years after Azerbaijan’s swift reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh and the mass displacement of ethnic Armenians, Yerevan and Baku have finalised the text of a peace agreement. Yet signing remains stalled over Azerbaijan’s insistence that Armenia amend its constitution, which Baku sees as enshrining territorial claims on Azerbaijani land. While Yerevan says it intends to reform the constitution on its own terms by 2026, the impasse has deepened mistrust and raised fears of renewed conflict.

Border Volatility and Military Posturing

Tensions along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border have flared, with accusations of ceasefire violations and disinformation campaigns fuelling suspicion. Both sides continue to expand their militaries, with Armenia diversifying its suppliers and Azerbaijan investing heavily in Israeli and Turkish weapons. Skirmishes, strategic occupations, and military drills underscore the risk of escalation absent a signed peace accord.

The EU’s Opportunity and Constraints

While no longer at the centre of peace talks, the EU can still play a pivotal supporting role, Crisis Group writes. It can encourage Armenia and Azerbaijan to adopt a phased approach to the constitutional dispute, linking future obligations to current commitments. Brussels should also spearhead investment programmes for conflict-affected regions and promote confidence-building measures such as joint border incident mechanisms. With Russia preoccupied in Ukraine and U.S. policy unclear under President Trump, the EU has an opening to reshape regional dynamics—provided it can navigate perceptions of bias stemming from its energy ties to Baku and outreach to Yerevan.

Conclusion

A peace treaty is within reach, but its success hinges on creative diplomacy and sustained international engagement. The EU’s role should now be one of quiet facilitation: helping close the gap between signature and implementation while preparing the region for the hard work of post-conflict recovery and economic integration.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇺🇳 Israel unleashes wave of attacks on south Lebanon: Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has condemned a surge in Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon, urging international pressure to uphold a fragile ceasefire agreement brokered in November between Israel and Hizbollah. Israeli forces struck several towns, including Toul, Soujod, and the Rihan Mountain area, claiming they targeted Hizbollah-linked sites. The escalation comes just days before key municipal elections in southern Lebanon, prompting fears for voter safety. Salam affirmed the elections will proceed, despite the attacks. Under the UN-backed truce, Hizbollah was to withdraw north of the Litani River, while Israel agreed to exit southern Lebanon—yet Israeli troops remain in contested zones.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇺🇦 G7 officials bridge divides on trade, security: Finance leaders from the G7 have overcome internal rifts over U.S. tariffs and reached a consensus on countering global economic “imbalances”—an indirect critique of China’s trade practices. The three-day meeting in Canada produced a joint communiqué, though it notably excluded earlier commitments to climate action, softened language on Ukraine, and omitted any defence of free trade. While U.S. tariffs went unmentioned, Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne insisted the issue was thoroughly discussed. The final statement condemned Russia’s actions but used milder language than in previous declarations. As Washington pursues potential peace negotiations with Moscow, divisions over tariffs and support for Kyiv remain, setting the tone for next month’s G7 leaders’ summit in Kananaskis, which President Trump will attend.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 PKK dissolution poised to transform Turkey’s domestic politics: The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced the end of its four-decade armed campaign on 12 May, marking a major turning point for Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy. With no external mediators involved, the peace process begins with the insurgency’s end—shifting the Kurdish issue into the realm of democratic and civilian politics. Addressing Kurdish grievances will now require a broader redefinition of Turkish citizenship and inclusive governance. Domestically, dismantling the PKK’s threat narrative may lead to reduced securitisation, potentially revitalising democratic space. Internationally, the move could reshape Turkey’s ties with the Kurds across Syria, Iraq, and Iran—transforming geopolitical fault lines into opportunities for cooperation. It may also ease tensions with the U.S. and EU, while reducing Turkey’s reliance on Russia.

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