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Finland urges binding European security guarantees for Ukraine, Ecuador advances referendum to scrap foreign base ban and rewrite its constitution, and Israel ramps up its Gaza City assault as residents refuse displacement.

Today’s lead story: at the UN General Assembly, geopolitics and UN survival take centre stage.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 War between Ethiopia and Eritrea ‘inevitable,’ say local sources: A former senior TPLF official warns that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is now “inevitable,” describing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as treating conflict as both a distraction from Ethiopia’s crises and a personal mission to capture the Red Sea port of Assab. He claims Abiy has dismantled the Pretoria Agreement, alienated former allies, and aligned with the UAE to secure military support, even at the cost of destabilising the entire Horn. The insider cautions that renewed fighting could erupt within months, with Ethiopia pursuing confrontation as a calculated gamble rather than a last resort.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇧🇪 🇪🇺 🇵🇸 France and Belgium join European states in recognising Palestine: France, Belgium, Andorra, Luxembourg, Malta, and Monaco formally recognised Palestinian statehood at a summit co-hosted with Saudi Arabia ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York. French President Emmanuel Macron said the time had come to secure a just peace, proposing a “renewed Palestinian Authority” backed by an International Stabilisation Force to prepare Gaza for future governance.

3️⃣ 🇵🇭 Filipinos protest nationwide over multibillion-dollar flood-control corruption scandal: Tens of thousands of Filipinos marched across Manila and other cities to denounce massive corruption in flood-control projects, with estimates suggesting up to £13bn was siphoned off from climate and disaster relief funds. The scandal, revealed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr in his state of the nation address, has triggered senate investigations and forced top congressional leaders to resign. Marcos backed the protests, saying public anger is justified and pledging that the inquiry would “spare no sacred cows.”

4️⃣ 🇭🇺 🇷🇺 Hungary rejects US demand to end Russian oil imports: Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said Budapest will continue buying Russian oil and gas, insisting it is the only way to guarantee the country’s energy security. His comments came after Trump threatened major new sanctions on Russia if all NATO allies stop purchasing Russian oil. Despite mounting pressure from Washington and European partners, Hungary and Slovakia remain the last major buyers of Russian crude through the Druzhba pipeline, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán maintaining close ties to the Kremlin and defying EU efforts to impose stricter energy measures.

5️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇪🇬 Gulf official denies report of rejected Egypt-led Arab defence force: A Gulf official has dismissed claims that Egypt’s proposal for a Nato-style Arab defence force was rejected at the Doha summit, calling reports of Qatari and Emirati opposition “entirely false.” The official insisted no such proposal was raised, saying all participants agreed unanimously on the summit’s final statement. Egyptian diplomats, however, maintain that Cairo’s plan was blocked over disputes on leadership, with Riyadh and Cairo each seeking command, and accused Washington of steering Arab states toward symbolic statements rather than concrete action against Israel’s war in Gaza.

Major Story

🇺🇳 GEOPOLITICS AND UN SURVIVAL TAKE CENTRE STAGE AT UNGA WEEK

Day two of the U.N. General Assembly’s high-level week is dominated by anticipation of U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech, his first address since returning to office. Trump is expected to champion his administration’s achievements, tout recent peace efforts, and deliver his signature mix of boasts and barbs that resonate beyond the hall. Allies and rivals alike are listening for signals on Washington’s foreign policy priorities—particularly on China, Russia, and asylum restrictions—as they gauge whether Trump will double down on confrontation or seek deals. 

Gaza and the Two-State Solution

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the defining issue of this year’s gathering. Leaders are set to press for recognition of a Palestinian state, with France, Saudi Arabia, and several European countries spearheading a renewed push for the two-state solution. Washington has attempted to frustrate the process by denying visas to Palestinian officials, but President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to join by video link after being denied a diplomatic visa. Diplomats fear Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could escalate tensions further by using his address to announce plans to annex parts of the occupied territories.

Iran, Ukraine, and Other Flashpoints

Backchannel talks are quietly underway between U.S., European, and Iranian officials as a September 28 deadline looms to reimpose sanctions under the “snapback” mechanism tied to the 2015 nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the Security Council will meet on Ukraine, with Europeans keen to reaffirm support for Kyiv amid signs of U.S. hesitancy. Other crises, including Sudan’s war and the Rohingya refugee plight, are set to receive far less attention.

The Future of the U.N.

Beyond the headline crises, there are deeper questions about the institution itself. Secretary-General António Guterres is pushing his ”UN80” reform agenda, aimed at streamlining the bureaucracy and relocating staff to cheaper duty stations, but transformative change may fall to his successor. Diplomats are already speculating about who might replace him, with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi emerging as an early favourite. Security Council reform and the balance of power at the U.N. remain contentious, with calls growing for permanent African representation.

The General Assembly’s 80th session is thus less a celebration than a stress test for multilateralism. With trust in global governance eroding, the week’s proceedings may reveal whether the U.N. can still serve as a forum for problem-solving—or merely a stage for power politics.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇫🇮 🇷🇺 Stubb calls for binding European military guarantees for Ukraine: Finnish President Alexander Stubb has urged Europe to back any future security guarantees for Ukraine with a clear commitment to military action if Russia attacks again, insisting that deterrence must be “plausible” and “strong.” Speaking ahead of the UN General Assembly, Stubb said such guarantees must follow a negotiated settlement but be crafted without Russian input, adding that U.S. participation is essential for credibility. 

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Israel intensifies Gaza City campaign as residents refuse to flee: Israel has escalated its ground offensive in Gaza City under “Operation Gideon’s Chariots II,” using airstrikes, tanks, and explosive-laden “suicide APCs” to force mass displacement. Many residents, unable to afford the high cost of fleeing or fearing permanent exile, remain under bombardment. Some reject relocation entirely, saying leaving would mean never returning, a fear widely seen as an echo of the 1948 Nakba.

3️⃣ 🇪🇨 Ecuador pushes referendum to lift foreign base ban and rewrite constitution: Ecuador’s electoral council has approved President Daniel Noboa’s plan for a nationwide referendum seeking constitutional changes, including lifting the ban on foreign military bases and ending state funding for political parties. Noboa has also renewed calls for a constituent assembly despite the Constitutional Court suspending the measure, in what critics say is an attempt to bypass judicial oversight. The move comes as Noboa intensifies his crackdown on drug cartels with militarisation, emergency powers, and expanded security cooperation with the United States amid surging violence and assassinations.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

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