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South Sudan pushes to shutter key UN peacekeeping bases, the deadly attack near Palmyra exposes the fragility of U.S.–Syrian security cooperation, and Washington eases sanctions as Belarus releases political prisoners.

Our main story, drawing on Matías Bianchi’s Foreign Policy analysis, examines the global shift from democratic momentum toward increasingly coordinated authoritarian power.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 European leaders launch Ukraine reparations body: EU leaders have met in the Netherlands to formally establish an International Claims Commission to adjudicate tens of billions of euros in reparations for Ukraine, with President Zelenskyy warning that any peace deal must not reward Russian aggression. Russia downplayed the initiative and dismissed the prospect of a Christmas ceasefire, while eastern flank states meeting in Helsinki reiterated that Moscow remains a long-term security threat. 

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syria–SDF integration deal falters as deadline nears and trust erodes: With a 31 December deadline looming, the March integration agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces controlling northeastern Syria is increasingly at risk, as political, security and economic talks remain stalled. Analysts warn that without near-term progress on confidence-building measures—particularly economic coordination and security integration—the deal could unravel, raising the risk of renewed military escalation in 2026.

3️⃣ 🇸🇰 🇪🇺 Slovaks protest judicial overhaul under Fico government: Thousands demonstrated across Slovakia, including a mass rally in Bratislava, after Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government rushed through judicial changes critics say weaken whistleblower protections and undermine the rule of law. Opposition leaders warned the reforms favour organised crime and mirror Hungary’s illiberal turn, while protesters waved EU flags and accused the government of dismantling democratic safeguards. 

4️⃣ 🇨🇴 🇺🇸 Rubio labels Colombia’s Gulf Clan an FTO: The United States has designated Colombia’s Gulf Clan as a foreign terrorist organisation, citing its nationwide reach, cocaine trafficking empire, and control of key smuggling corridors including the Darién Gap. The move, announced by Secretary of State Rubio, marks the Trump administration’s first such designation in Colombia and is likely to deepen tensions with President Gustavo Petro, who opposes Washington’s increasingly militarised foreign policy in Latin America war. 

5️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 UAE-backed Yemen separatists expand military push to Abyan: The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) said its forces have advanced into Abyan province, extending a campaign to consolidate control across southern Yemen and sidelining the internationally recognised government. The move follows the group’s seizure of much of Hadramout and Mahra, heightening fears of renewed conflict as Saudi-led de-escalation efforts stall.

Major Story

🇭🇺 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 FROM DEMOCRATIC MOMENTUM TO AUTHORITARIAN COORDINATION

In earlier eras, ideological movements advanced through cross-border organisation: communist parties coordinated through Moscow in the interwar years, while liberal democracy spread globally after the Cold War under U.S.-led institutional and economic pressure. Today, however, international cooperation is increasingly favouring autocracy. A loose but growing ecosystem of authoritarian governments, illiberal leaders within democracies, antisystem political parties, and aligned private actors is pooling resources, synchronising narratives, and shielding one another from accountability. What binds these actors is not ideology but a shared hostility to liberal constraints on power, including judicial independence, civil liberties, pluralism, and the rule of law.

From leaders such as Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán to entrenched autocrats like Alexander Lukashenko, these figures personalise authority, undermine checks and balances, and weaponise disinformation to delegitimise opponents. Acting together, they form transnational illiberal networks that amplify each other’s messaging, provide financial and diplomatic cover, and tilt the global balance away from democracy. High-profile displays—such as the 2025 Beijing appearance of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un—symbolise this trend, but the real strength lies in constant, lower-level coordination. In 2024 alone, tens of thousands of meetings, media partnerships, and political exchanges linked authoritarian-leaning actors across regions.

Why autocracy is gaining ground

Democratic cooperation, by contrast, has weakened. Although Western support for democracy was often selective, it once combined economic incentives, diplomatic pressure, and a compelling narrative of political freedom. Today those tools are blunted. Democratic institutions are underfunded, coordination is cautious, and some former champions—most notably the United States—have stepped back or even legitimised illiberal actors. As a result, democratic backsliding has become harder to reverse, while authoritarian rule is easier to sustain.

This shift has consequences beyond civil liberties. Authoritarian systems are more prone to conflict, corruption, and exclusionary growth, producing instability that spills across borders. With autocrats better networked, better financed, and increasingly confident, the erosion of democratic cooperation leaves the international order less free, and less safe, write Nic Cheeseman, Matias Bianchi, and Jennifer Cyr, in Foreign Affairs. Unless democracies adapt their strategies and rebuild collective resolve, the advance of the illiberal international is likely to continue.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇺🇳 South Sudan presses for closure of key UN peacekeeping bases: Juba has renewed its demand that the United Nations close its major peacekeeping bases in Wau and Bentiu, framing the move as a matter of sovereignty as UNMISS carries out a mandated drawdown. Juba says it has cooperated with the withdrawal of peacekeepers and accepted the closure of seven smaller sites, but insists the strategically significant bases must also shut, a position the UN disputes as it scales back operations amid budget cuts.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 Palmyra attack exposes fragility of U.S.-Syrian security cooperation: Following the deadliest attack on U.S. forces in Syria since 2019, Washington has blamed an ISIS-linked assailant later identified by Damascus as a member of Syria’s security services flagged for extremist views. The incident highlights vulnerabilities created by rapid, uneven integration of armed factions into state forces, raising doubts about vetting and oversight just weeks after Syria joined the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition, and risks chilling joint operations.

3️⃣ 🇧🇾 🇺🇸 Washington lifts sanctions as Belarus frees political prisoners: Belarus has released 123 detainees, including opposition figures, following talks with a U.S. envoy that led Washington to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash exports. The move marks a sharp shift in U.S. policy toward Minsk, easing Alexander Lukashenko’s international isolation despite continued non-recognition by the EU.

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