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📰 Putin dismisses NATO confrontation as 'nonsense'

📰 Putin dismisses NATO confrontation as 'nonsense'

and Israel intercepts Gaza aid flotilla in international waters

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 03, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Developments from Africa: the African Union mission in Somalia faces collapse amid a severe funding gap; Guinea has set December elections after a new constitution paves the way for Doumbouya; and Afghanistan sinks deeper into crisis as foreign aid evaporates.

Our lead story: in Copenhagen, the EU summit delivered plenty of debate but little policy substance.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇸🇴 🇾🇪 UAE expands Gulf of Aden hegemony with network of Red Sea bases: The UAE has constructed a network of military outposts across Yemen, Somalia, and Somaliland, giving it control over key shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Developed in close partnership with Israel and supported by U.S. backing, these bases host joint radar, drone, and intelligence systems designed to counter the Houthis and Iran, while also enabling covert arms transfers to Sudan’s RSF.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Putin dismisses NATO confrontation as ‘nonsense’ while courting Trump: Vladimir Putin used the Valdai forum in Sochi to warn that Russia would swiftly retaliate against what he called Europe’s “escalating militarisation,” while ridiculing Western fears of a NATO confrontation as “nonsense.” At the same time, he struck a softer tone toward Donald Trump, praising him as a “comfortable interlocutor” and hinting that Moscow seeks a restoration of ties under his leadership, even as Trump has criticised Russia’s war effort.

3️⃣ 🇦🇫 Afghanistan slides further into crisis as foreign aid collapses: The U.S. and other donors slash humanitarian funding to Afghanistan, leaving millions vulnerable amid sanctions, isolation, and Taliban restrictions. Once stabilised by emergency aid flows that peaked in 2022, the economy now faces collapsing services, soaring poverty, and dire shortages, with women and girls hit hardest. Analysts argue that only easing sanctions, reconnecting Afghanistan to global finance, and pursuing an orderly phaseout of aid can avert mass destitution.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel intercepts Gaza aid flotilla in international waters: The IDF seized several humanitarian vessels of the Global Sumud Flotilla 70–80 nautical miles off Gaza’s coast, detaining activists. Organisers said their 40-ship convoy carried food, medicine, and supplies for Gaza but was intercepted in international waters where freedom of navigation applies under international law. Israel, however, maintains its long-running naval blockade, a policy widely deemed unlawful under international law.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇬🇱 Britain nears critical minerals deal with Greenland amid global competition: The U.K. is close to finalising a critical minerals partnership with Greenland, a move aimed at reducing reliance on China’s rare earth dominance and strengthening supply chains vital for clean energy and advanced manufacturing. Officials stress that environmental safeguards and indigenous community participation will be central to the deal’s legitimacy.

Major Story

🇩🇰 🇪🇺 EU’S COPENHAGEN SUMMIT YIELDS MORE TALK THAN ACTION

European Union leaders gathered in Copenhagen for a summit on Europe’s security, but the results fell short of expectations. “We are worried — I am very worried — and now is the time to take action,” Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said, echoing a sense of urgency. Yet after hours of debate, leaders left with little more than they had arrived with: deep concerns, but few decisions.

Frozen Assets Remain Untouched

A key proposal from the European Commission to use frozen Russian assets as collateral for a €140 billion loan to Ukraine stalled. Belgium, home to Euroclear — which holds the assets — demanded stronger legal guarantees, wary of lawsuits from Moscow. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen insisted the plan avoided outright confiscation, but her assurances failed to convince. European Council President António Costa suggested the next summit may prove “decision day.”

Defence Remains a National Prerogative

Debates on common defence stretched well beyond schedule, reflecting member states’ reluctance to cede control. While leaders welcomed the Commission’s ideas, they insisted on retaining authority. Discussions centred on a proposed EU “drone wall” for detecting and neutralising aerial threats. France and Germany resisted Commission oversight, while southern states lobbied for broader border protection. The outcome: more frequent defence meetings, but no agreement.

Enlargement Stuck in Neutral

Costa’s push to ease EU accession rules to fast-track Ukraine’s membership bid met stiff resistance. His proposal to replace unanimous consent with majority approval collapsed quickly, blocked not only by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán — Moscow’s closest ally in the bloc — but also by sceptics in France, the Netherlands, and Greece. Enlargement remains firmly locked behind consensus.

Royal Timetables Overrule Policy Deadlines

Despite the gravity of the topics, the summit was ultimately constrained by a royal dinner invitation. Leaders extended security talks well past their slot but wrapped up in time to dine with Denmark’s monarchy. Symbolically, writes Politico, the evening underscored the day’s theme: ceremony prevailed where decisive policy should have.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 African Union mission in Somalia risks collapse amid funding shortfall: The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia is on the brink of collapse after stakeholders revealed a funding gap of nearly $200 million. The mission, already scaled back from its predecessor ATMIS, remains critical as al-Shabaab escalates attacks across Somalia’s south and centre, while the country’s fractured military and political turmoil leave it ill-prepared to face the insurgency alone.

2️⃣ 🇬🇳 Guinea sets December election after new constitution clears path for Doumbouya: Guinea will hold its first presidential election since the 2021 coup on December 28, after the Supreme Court validated a new constitution that allows junta leader Mamady Doumbouya to run. The charter, passed in a disputed referendum, extends presidential terms to seven years and replaces rules that had barred coup leaders from contesting office. While authorities claim nearly 90% approval with record turnout, opposition figures question the legitimacy of the vote.