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Amwaj reports that waning Gulf confidence in U.S. security assurances signals symbolic gains for Moscow, while in Africa, Fano militias have seized new territory amid renewed fighting with Ethiopian forces in Amhara, and police have clashed with demonstrators demanding the release of Nigeria’s separatist leader.

Our lead story focuses on the Red Sea, examining what’s at stake in the Red Sea and Yemen.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 US envoy threatens Lebanon with renewed Israeli invasion: US envoy Tom Barrack warned that Israel will launch unilateral attacks on Lebanon if Hizbollah is not disarmed, accusing Beirut of paralysis and indecision. 

2️⃣ 🇦🇷 🇺🇸 Trump approves $20bn swap deal to bolster Argentina’s faltering economy: Argentina has sealed a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the US, part of a broader financial lifeline orchestrated by President Trump to stabilise the country’s volatile economy ahead of its midterms. Trump has warned that US support would be withdrawn if Milei lost the upcoming election.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 EU to end all Russian energy imports by 2028: EU member states have voted to phase out all Russian oil and gas imports by 2028, marking a major step to end the bloc’s energy dependence on Moscow amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. While Hungary and Slovakia opposed the move, the proposal is expected to pass the European Parliament.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel orchestrates repeated Gaza ceasefire violations as civilian toll climbs: Since the US-brokered truce took effect on 10 October, Israeli forces have killed over 100 Palestinians and wounded over 200 in Gaza, drawing accusations of systematic ceasefire breaches. Despite claiming Hamas fighters attacked troops in Rafah—a zone under Israeli control—Israel had already carried out multiple strikes and imposed new restrictions on aid deliveries. 

5️⃣ 🇧🇴 Paz wins Bolivian presidential runoff: Centrist senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira has won Bolivia’s presidential runoff with 54.6% of the vote, defeating conservative ex-president Jorge Quiroga and ending nearly twenty years of dominance by the leftist MAS party. 

Major Story

🇾🇪 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 THE QUIET FRONT: WHAT’S AT STAKE IN THE RED SEA AND YEMEN

Amid the post–7 October 2023 confrontation between Israel and Hamas-aligned actors, Yemen has been an under-reported but pivotal arena of conflict. Houthi forces controlling northern Yemen have targeted Red Sea shipping and fired missiles toward Israel to disrupt commerce and signal solidarity with the “axis of resistance.” Israel has struck Houthi-controlled sites and leaders in response, while the United States briefly mounted its own campaign before reaching a limited truce with the group. Beyond trade disruption, this tit-for-tat has deepened Yemen’s internal stalemate between the Houthis in Sanaa and the internationally recognised government’s Presidential Leadership Council in Aden.

Red Sea dynamics and external responses

After a 2023 Saudi-Houthi truce, the Houthis expanded their Red Sea footprint—deploying fighters to islands, upgrading naval capabilities, and installing maritime radars. Their maritime attacks, initially focused on Israel-linked vessels, broadened over time, prompting multinational escorts and air defences. The Houthis also launched strikes on Israel proper, testing Israeli air defences with progressively sophisticated munitions. A 42-day Gaza ceasefire in early 2025 briefly paused Houthi activity, but hostilities resumed until an Oman-brokered understanding led the Houthis to halt attacks on U.S. assets—an arrangement that does not cover Israel, leaving Israeli-Houthi exchanges ongoing.

Peace process on ice

Red Sea escalation froze Omani-mediated talks that had produced a three-phase roadmap to formalise a nationwide truce and implement humanitarian measures such as salary payments and revenue sharing. Riyadh and Washington judged continued negotiations as rewarding maritime coercion, and the UN envoy has struggled to open space even on humanitarian issues. Both sides have reinforced positions around Marib and Yemen’s western coast, where the Houthis fear a PLC-aligned thrust from National Resistance Forces under Tareq Saleh.

Economic fracture and humanitarian crisis

Yemen’s economy remains split between rival central banks in Sanaa and Aden. The rift widened in July 2025 when the Houthis issued new currency unilaterally, while revenue shortfalls—exacerbated by disrupted Hodeida trade—bit deeper. The humanitarian picture is dire: over 17 million Yemenis face hunger, tens of thousands are near famine, and acute malnutrition affects millions of children. Funding shortfalls, tighter Houthi restrictions on aid groups, and renewed terrorism designations and sanctions have further impeded relief operations.

What’s at stake

If the Gaza ceasefire endures, it offers an opening to de-escalate the Red Sea and revive Yemen talks. Without renewed diplomacy and humanitarian access, however, the war-at-sea risks hardening into a protracted choke point—compounding Yemen’s suffering and endangering a vital global trade corridor.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇹 Fano forces seize territory amid renewed clashes with Ethiopian army in Amhara: Heavy fighting has erupted across Ethiopia’s Amhara region this week between Fano militias and government troops, with reports indicating that Fano fighters have captured several areas, including parts of North Wollo and South Gondar.

2️⃣ 🇳🇬 Police clash with protesters demanding release of Nigerian separatist leader: Police in Abuja used tear gas to disperse demonstrators calling for the release of Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), who remains detained on terrorism charges despite a 2022 court acquittal later overturned by the Supreme Court. 

3️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇷🇺 Gulf doubts over US security guarantees represent symbolic gains for Moscow: Israel’s unprecedented airstrike on Hamas officials in Doha has shaken Qatar’s faith in US protection and seen Moscow assert its posture as a defender of sovereignty. Yet while Russia benefits from the erosion of US credibility, its limited capacity, entanglements in Ukraine, and weakened alliances mean Gulf states remain unlikely to look to Moscow as an alternative security partner. 

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