Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

The Australian government blocks release of Nauru translation for a decade, UN calls RSF-controlled el-Fasher “a crime scene,” and Nigeria jails Biafran separatist leader for life.

As the G20 summit opens in South Africa this weekend, we analyse diplomatic strain, multilateral ambition, and global realignment.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy signals openness to Trump-backed peace talks despite deep concern in Kyiv: Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed receipt of a US-Russian draft peace plan. The plan, reportedly prepared without Kyiv’s input, proposes major concessions including territorial surrender, military downsizing, and restrictions on Ukraine’s long-range weapons—terms some Ukrainian officials denounced as a “provocation” and tantamount to capitulation. 

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel expands Gaza ceasefire line, trapping Palestinian families: Israeli forces have pushed several hundred metres beyond the agreed “yellow line” in eastern Gaza City, tightening control and effectively besieging dozens of Palestinian families in violation of the US-brokered ceasefire. The escalation comes as Israeli attacks continue despite the truce, with authorities reporting dozens killed in the past 24 hours.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇧🇪 🇬🇷 🇪🇸 Belgian deputy PM emerges as frontrunner for Eurogroup leadership: Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Vincent Van Peteghem has quickly become the leading contender to replace Paschal Donohoe as Eurogroup president following Donohoe’s unexpected resignation to join the World Bank. However, Belgium’s opposition to using frozen Russian assets to fund a €140bn reparations loan for Ukraine could undermine his bid, opening space for potential rivals from Greece and Spain.

4️⃣ 🇸🇾 SDF recapture checkpoints amid renewed clashes in Al-Raqqa: Fighting has reignited in Raqqa after Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reclaimed three checkpoints previously held by Syrian government-affiliated factions. Earlier, the SDF also intercepted and downed a drone deployed by the Interim Government following an attempted strike on a security post, as drone activity intensified in the area.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Industry leaders warn of rising Chinese AI threat, question US model sustainability: Nvidia chief Jensen Huang has dismissed concerns of an “AI bubble,” but growing evidence from industry leaders suggests Chinese AI models are increasingly outperforming and undercutting their US counterparts. Executives from Airbnb, Social Capital, and venture firm 16z report that many US firms are turning to Chinese open-source systems like Kimi K2 and Qwen, which offer comparable or superior performance at a fraction of the cost. 

Major Story

🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA’S G20 PRESIDENCY: DIPLOMATIC STRAIN, MULTILATERAL AMBITION, AND GLOBAL REALIGNMENT

As South Africa prepares to host the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 22–23 November, the first ever chaired by an African nation, it does so amid significant geopolitical tensions. Critics at home warned the presidency could be a diplomatic burden, a prediction partly borne out by the unprecedented boycott by the United States. President Donald Trump has accused Pretoria of “fuelling disproportionate violence” against white landowners and ultimately barred all U.S. officials from attending, branding the summit a “total disgrace.” The absence of the world’s largest economy has undoubtedly diminished the event’s profile, marking the first G20 summit without U.S. representation since 2008.

Other notable absences include Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who avoids travel due to the ICC arrest warrant, and likely China’s Xi Jinping, who may send Premier Li Qiang. Argentina’s Javier Milei is expected to skip the summit in solidarity with Trump. Despite these setbacks, many leaders have publicly supported South Africa and criticised Washington’s stance as diplomatically self-defeating.

Navigating Global Divisions and Advancing African Priorities

Despite fractures over Gaza, Ukraine, and broader geopolitical divides, President Cyril Ramaphosa has used the G20 presidency to revitalise multilateral dialogue, secure stronger African representation, and build new bridges between the Global North and South. Pretoria hosted consultations with the African Union, now a permanent G20 member, to deepen continental engagement and push for reforms in global financial governance, climate funding, and debt relief. South Africa has carefully managed EU relations, repairing ties strained by its non-aligned stance on the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, Ramaphosa has cultivated alternative partnerships with China, India, Japan, and Russia, seeking to counterbalance U.S. disengagement. Domestically, the presidency has helped reinforce his role as a consensus builder amid a fragile coalition government.

U.S. Hostility, Global Support, and South Africa’s Legacy

Washington’s boycott reflects deeper tensions over Pretoria’s positions on ICC litigation against Israel, BRICS membership, diversification of trade alliances, and its emphasis on equity-focused policies. The U.S. has imposed steep tariffs, withdrawn health programs, and slashed climate commitments, yet isolation has strengthened South Africa’s standing among many emerging powers. Although the summit may end without a joint declaration, Ramaphosa aims to secure lasting legacies: the Africa Expert Panel, efforts to reform global financial architecture, and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz’s international initiative on inequality. These could shape future G20 policy agendas well beyond South Africa’s presidency.

In a turbulent multipolar world, Pretoria’s G20 stewardship may not deliver grand declarations, but it has strengthened South Africa’s diplomatic leverage, widened its coalition of partners, and elevated African priorities in global governance.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇳🇷 Australian government suppresses translation of Nauru documents for ten years: The Albanese government has imposed a decade-long suppression order on a translation of Nauruan President David Adeang’s public remarks on the NZYQ deportation deal, citing diplomatic sensitivity. The transcript has been sealed by federal and high courts as part of a legal challenge brought by a deportee, highlighting the extreme secrecy surrounding Australia’s offshore detention arrangements and ongoing transfers to Nauru.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 RSF-held el-Fasher is “a crime scene” says UN: The UN’s humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, described Sudan’s el-Fasher as “essentially a crime scene,” citing testimonies of mass killings, abductions, and sexual violence after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured the city in late October. The UN has launched an investigation into the alleged atrocities, as RSF forces advance eastward into Kordofan.

3️⃣🇳🇬 Nigeria sentences Biafran separatist leader to life imprisonment: A Nigerian court has sentenced Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), to life imprisonment after ruling that he used the separatist group to incite violent attacks on security personnel and civilians. His conviction marks a decisive blow against the region’s secessionist movement, which has been linked to hundreds of deaths and enforced shutdowns in southeastern states since 2021.

Weekly Updates?

Want weekly updates as well as daily?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Weekly here ⤵️

Grow Your Audience With Us

Build your reach. Strengthen your brand.

We’ve helped brands, podcasts, and media organisations grow audiences using proven short-form video systems.

From scripting and editing to analytics and optimisation — every decision is driven by data, not guesswork.

Visit www.horizonatlasmedia.com to learn more.