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📰 Troops land in Haiti

📰 Troops land in Haiti

and Trump eyes Greenland

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 09, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In Latin America, Argentina pursues ICC action against Venezuela, while a Central American security force has arrived in Haiti to combat gang violence. In Africa, Nigerian militants attacked Cameroonian forces, and Mogadishu approved Ethiopian military involvement in anti-al-Shabaab operations.

The U.S. plans to send $8 billion in arms to Israel, and Trump has suggested the possibility of seizing Greenland by force. Today's primary focus is an in-depth look at U.S. military strategy in East Asia amid shifting regional dynamics.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇬🇱 Trump refuses to rule out use of military force to seize Greenland: Greenland sits at the crossroads of climate change, global trade, and geopolitics, making it a focal point for competition over resources and influence, says Ohio University’s Geoff Dabelko. As the Arctic warms four times faster than the rest of the planet, Greenland’s ice melt accelerates sea level rise and reveals untapped reserves of rare earth minerals, oil, and gas. These resources, currently dominated by China, have drawn interest from the United States and other nations. Greenland’s strategic location between the U.S., Russia, and Europe enhances its value, with shifting trade routes amplifying its geopolitical significance. President-elect Donald Trump’s past interest in acquiring Greenland highlights its growing importance.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 Hizbollah says it will not stand in way of Joseph Aoun’s presidential bid: Hizbollah official Wafiq Safa announced the group will not oppose the presidential bid of Lebanon’s Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun. In a televised address, Safa clarified that Hizbollah’s only veto remains against Samir Geagea—a former warlord from Lebanon’s civil war years—accusing him of promoting unrest. Lebanon’s Parliament is set to meet on 9 January to elect a president, following over a year of political deadlock since Michel Aoun’s departure in 2022. General Aoun’s candidacy is viewed as a potential unifying choice, with backing from Western powers eager to maintain Lebanon’s fragile ceasefire with Israel. However, parliamentary divisions and high quorum requirements could still derail the process, leaving Lebanon’s recovery from war and economic collapse uncertain.

3️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 🇹🇷 Mogadishu gives consent to ENDF to join al-Shabaab securitisation mission: Somalia has agreed to allow Ethiopian National Defence Forces to join AUSSOM, the African Union's renewed mission aimed at addressing the al-Shabaab threat, which will replace ATMIS. Historically, Ethiopia has played a key role in Somalia's security, as it shares an interest in containing jihadist expansion. However, the controversial recognition of Somaliland by Ethiopia in a January 2024 MoU initially complicated the situation. Following a personal request from Turkish President Erdogan, Somali President Hasan Sheikh Mohamud had little choice but to accept Ethiopia's participation, though the Somali government needed time to prepare its base for this decision. A series of diplomatic meetings in Addis Ababa and Mogadishu were orchestrated to ease tensions and present the accord as the result of a negotiated process, reflecting Somalia's commitment to regional stability.

4️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇬🇹 🇸🇻 Central American security contingent arrives in Haiti to fight gangs: Troops from Guatemala and El Salvador arrived in Haiti's capital on Friday to support the United Nations-backed mission aimed at restoring security amid escalating gang violence. The group included 75 Guatemalan soldiers and eight Salvadoran troops. Haiti's transitional president, Leslie Voltaire, Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime, and U.S. Ambassador Dennis Hankins welcomed the troops at Port-au-Prince's airport. The government stated that the troops were sent to reinforce the Multinational Force in combating gang violence. Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo had pledged to send 150 military police in September, while El Salvador committed to providing 78 soldiers for medical evacuation operations and three helicopters to aid the mission.

5️⃣ 🇨🇲 🇳🇬 Nigerian militants attack Cameroonian security forces: Armed men suspected to be Nigerian militants crossed into southern Cameroon, launching attacks that left at least seven Cameroonian soldiers dead and displaced civilians from approximately 15 villages. Villagers in Akwaya district, near Nigeria’s Taraba state, reported that the attackers crossed the Moon River twice during the week, taking advantage of low water levels to move easily by foot. The assailants—believed to be ethnic Fulani—fired indiscriminately, burned houses, and threatened civilians. Cameroon's military responded, engaging the attackers in gunfire, but faced a larger, better-armed group during a subsequent assault that left five soldiers and two gendarmes dead. The Cameroonian government suspects the militants aim to occupy the area and has deployed additional troops along the border. Authorities are coordinating with Nigeria to prevent further incursions and strengthen border security.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 U.S. MILITARY STRATEGY IN EAST ASIA: ADAPTING TO A SHIFTING BALANCE OF POWER

For decades, the United States has sought to reduce the risk of conflict in East Asia by reinforcing defence alliances and ensuring open access to critical trade routes. Historically, this strategy relied on the U.S.’s ability to project overwhelming military power, bolstered by technological superiority over China. However, as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) rapidly modernises, this long-standing advantage is diminishing, reshaping the regional balance of power.

Brookings Institute posits that the United States can no longer assume its military dominance will deter challenges to its interests or ensure favourable outcomes without significant cost and risk. Addressing emerging threats requires rethinking existing strategies. For the U.S. to protect its interests, policymakers must craft responses that extend beyond conventional military deployments, combining diplomatic, economic, and military tools to manage tensions. This shift reflects the need to address not just direct military conflicts but also more subtle forms of Chinese assertiveness that fall below the threshold of war.

Operational limitations—such as budget constraints, alliance politics, and the risk of escalation—will heavily influence U.S. options. Forward deployments risk unintended confrontations, while domestic political considerations may limit support for intervention. Moving forward, the U.S. must pursue flexible, cost-effective approaches to secure its interests in East Asia, recognising that the region’s evolving dynamics demand innovation and adaptability.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan accuses China of undermining democracy with disinformation: Taiwan’s government has accused China of intensifying efforts to undermine its democracy and its close relationship with the United States by spreading disinformation, particularly online. The National Security Bureau reported that the amount of false or biased information distributed by China surged by 60% in 2024, rising from 1.33 million to 2.16 million pieces. The report, issued on Friday, noted that social media platforms such as Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and TikTok were the primary channels for this disinformation. China has reportedly created fake accounts on platforms like YouTube, employed AI to generate misleading videos, and flooded comment sections with pro-China propaganda, despite banning such platforms within its own borders.

2️⃣ 🇦🇷 🇻🇪 🇺🇳 Argentina files ICC complaint against Venezuela, as relations deteriorate: Argentina's government announced on Thursday that it had filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Venezuela for the alleged forced disappearance of Nahuel Gallo, a member of Argentina's gendarmerie. Tensions between the two countries have been escalating since Javier Milei, a far-right libertarian, took office as Argentina's president in late 2023. The dispute intensified after Venezuela's disputed presidential election in July, where Nicolás Maduro claimed victory. Venezuela's Foreign Minister Yvan Gil dismissed Argentina's complaint as a "pitiful spectacle," while Attorney General Tarek Saab stated that Gallo was not disappeared but detained and under investigation for alleged links to a group planning destabilizing actions.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 U.S. plans to send a further $8 billion in arms to Israel: The Biden administration has notified Congress of a proposed $8 billion arms sale to Israel's military, whose operations in Gaza have led to tens of thousands of deaths and, according to international legal experts, committed acts of genocide. The package, which requires approval from both the House of Representatives and Senate committees, includes munitions for fighter jets, attack helicopters, and artillery shells, as well as small-diameter bombs and warheads. U.S. officials emphasized that the deal reflects Washington’s stance that Israel has the right to defend its citizens under international law. Protesters have for months demanded an arms embargo against Israel, but U.S. policy has largely remained unchanged.