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- 📰 Trudeau’s future in question
📰 Trudeau’s future in question
and Israel fortifies in Syria
Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 18, 2024
Hello and welcome back.
Today's dispatch centres on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with reports of North Korean troops killed in Kursk and Ukrainian intelligence claiming responsibility for the assassination of a Russian general in Moscow. The main story is an in-depth analysis of Ukraine's mobilisation challenges amid dim prospects for NATO-style defence guarantees and the looming return of Trump to the White House.
In other news, Syria’s HTS hopes for its terrorist designation to be rescinded, and dismisses the possibility of a federal arrangement that encompasses the Kurdish–held northeast, signalling its ambitions for political expansion.
This, and more, below ⤵️
Top 5 Stories
1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukrainian intelligence claim responsibility for assassination of Russian general in Moscow: Igor Kirillov, a senior Russian general overseeing nuclear defence forces, has been killed in a bomb blast in Moscow. The attack, for which Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has claimed responsibility, occurred on Ryazansky Prospekt, 7 km southeast of the Kremlin. The bomb, concealed in an electric scooter, had an explosive yield of approximately 300 grams of TNT, according to Russian investigators. Kirillov had led the Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defence Troops since 2017 and was sanctioned by countries including the UK and Canada for his involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Trudeau’s political future threatened by tariff discussions: Justin Trudeau’s political career faces mounting uncertainty following the unexpected resignation of his deputy, Chrystia Freeland, amid plummeting approval ratings and concerns over the trade implications of Donald Trump’s return. Freeland, who served as deputy prime minister and finance minister, delivered a pointed resignation letter suggesting Trudeau may not be equipped to confront Trump’s "America-first" economic nationalism, particularly in light of threats like 25% tariffs on Canadian goods. Her departure marks a significant blow to Trudeau’s leadership, as Freeland was a trusted ally credited with navigating critical challenges, including the renegotiation of NAFTA.
3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israel to indefinitely occupy a ‘buffer zone’ in Syria: Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, has hinted at plans to maintain prolonged security control over parts of Syria, exploiting regional instability to safeguard against potential threats. Following the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime, Israel seized a 155-square-mile buffer zone and deployed troops to Mt. Hermon, an elevated point offering oversight of key territories. Katz, visiting the area with Prime Minister Netanyahu, instructed soldiers to establish fortifications, referring to Mt. Hermon as “the eyes of the state of Israel.” The move, deemed a violation of international law by the UN and several countries, has drawn widespread condemnation. Meanwhile, Katz signalled that Israel intends to continue security control in Gaza, mirroring its approach in the occupied West Bank.
4️⃣ 🇸🇾 HTS pursues removal of terrorist designation, hints at future conflict with Kurdish-held northeast: The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group has outlined plans for Syria’s future governance following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. Mourhaf Abu Qasra—known as Abu Hassan al-Hamwi—the group’s military leader, announced that the next phase involves dissolving armed factions, including HTS, to form a unified national army. Speaking from Latakia, Abu Qasra also emphasized the new government’s goal of consolidating control over Kurdish-held areas in northeastern Syria while rejecting any form of federalism. HTS has urged Western nations to remove it from their lists of terrorist organizations and called for an end to military incursions and Israeli airstrikes in Syria.
5️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 Ogaden’s tenuous 2018 peace deal at risk amidst Horn of Africa’s growing tensions: The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), established in 1984, began as a social and political movement but evolved into an armed group in the 1990s, seeking self-determination for ethnic Somalis in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia. The conflict, rooted in colonial-era territorial disputes, spanned generations, with ethnic Somalis striving for autonomy amid resistance from Ethiopian authorities. A turning point came in October 2018 when the ONLF and Ethiopian government signed a peace agreement in Asmara, facilitated by Eritrea, bringing an end to decades of hostilities. While the deal marked a shift towards peaceful political engagement, Ethiopia’s leadership has historically viewed Ogaden's self-determination aspirations as a threat to the nation’s territorial integrity.
Major Story
🇺🇦 🇷🇺 MOBILISATION CHALLENGES AMID RUSSIA–UKRAINE CONFLICT
As Russian forces advance in eastern Ukraine and the United States prepares to reset its foreign policy under President-elect Donald Trump, reforming Ukraine’s mobilisation system has become critical, says Ukraine analyst Simon Schlegel. For Ukraine to secure a credible future deterrent against renewed Russian aggression, it must rely on a robust and efficient military system, particularly as NATO-style defence guarantees remain unlikely.
Initial Mobilisation Success and Limitations
At the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine’s mobilisation strategy leaned heavily on volunteer enthusiasm, conscription of men aged 27–60 with prior military experience, and mandatory service for younger men performing support roles. However, by late 2023, this system faltered as volunteer numbers dwindled, outdated population data hampered planning, and inadequate training contributed to a cycle of high casualties and hastily deployed replacements.
Reforms to Strengthen Ukraine’s Defence
In response, Ukraine launched a sweeping reform initiative in late 2023. Notable changes include lowering the mobilisation age from 27 to 25, mandating the registration of men aged 25–60, and introducing a basic military training course to prepare recruits before mobilisation. These efforts have expanded the conscription pool, with over 4.7 million men registering by mid-2024 and an additional 15,000–20,000 conscripts recruited from incarcerated populations.
Addressing Future Needs
These reforms aim to build a more sustainable defence structure, ensuring recruits receive basic training early and alleviating the strain on combat readiness caused by high casualty rates. However, the challenge of maintaining troop morale and readiness amid ongoing conflict persists.
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Other News
1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇲🇺 UK and Mauritius Chagos Islands rift grows: Downing Street has dismissed concerns that its agreement with Mauritius to transfer control of the Chagos Islands is at risk, following comments from Mauritius’ newly elected Prime Minister, Navinchandra Ramgoolam. The deal, struck in October with the previous administration, would see the UK relinquish its last African colony while maintaining control of the UK-US military base on Diego Garcia for at least 99 years. However, Ramgoolam, returning for a third term after November’s election, has ordered a review of the agreement, arguing it does not sufficiently benefit Mauritius. Addressing parliament, he confirmed ongoing talks with UK officials to secure more favourable terms.
2️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 First reports of North Korean troops killed in Kursk: Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) and the Pentagon have reported significant casualties among North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in the Kursk border region. GUR stated on Monday that at least 30 North Korean soldiers were killed or wounded near the villages of Plekhovo, Vorobzha, and Martynovka. According to intelligence from South Korea, the United States, and Ukraine, approximately 11,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed to Russia to support its efforts against Ukrainian forces on the front lines.
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