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📰 Trudeau steps down

📰 Trudeau steps down

and Syrian rebel diplomacy

Ross Crabtree
January 07, 2025

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Syria makes several headlines today, with its foreign minister courting Gulf states to support the country’s economic recovery, while fighting breaks out between Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces in the north. Today's main story delves into the geoeconomics of Assad's narco-state.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 Northern Syrian erupts as Turkish–backed SNA fights Kurdish forces: The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that clashes near Manbij resulted in the deaths of 85 Turkey-backed fighters and 16 Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters. The largely Kurdish SDF, supported by the US, stated that it had successfully repelled all attacks, which were aided by Turkish airstrikes. The violence erupted when the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) resumed its offensive against the SDF, following the November 2023 ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by rebel forces. The conflict resulted in the capture of Manbij and Tal Rifaat in northern Aleppo, with both sides suffering significant casualties. The SNA now aims to seize the cities of Kobane and al-Tabqa before advancing toward Raqqa.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 Indonesia accedes to BRICS membership: Indonesia officially became the tenth member of BRICS on Monday, joining the group of emerging economies. Brazil—the current BRICS chair for 2025—announced Indonesia’s entry, highlighting the country’s significant economic and demographic influence in Southeast Asia. The Brazilian government emphasized Indonesia’s shared commitment to global governance reform and South-South cooperation. Although BRICS leaders endorsed Indonesia’s membership in August 2023, the nation delayed joining until after its new government was in place.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23 seize key town in eastern DR Congo: M23 rebels—backed by Rwanda—have taken control of Masisi, a key town near Goma in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The Tutsi-led group has been escalating its insurgency since 2022, with accusations from both DRC and the UN that Rwanda provides direct military support. Despite Rwanda's claims of defensive actions, M23 has gained ground, with Masisi now under its control. Efforts to de-escalate—including a scheduled meeting between the DRC and Rwandan presidents—were delayed, worsening the humanitarian crisis that has displaced over 1.9 million people. Local officials are working to regain control, while international organizations in the area face challenges in continuing operations amid the violence.

4️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇦🇪 Qatar’s shrinking regional diplomatic stature and the UAE’s growing diplomatic clout: Recent high-level engagements between Emirati and Qatari officials signal a notable warming of ties, but regional stability remains fragile as the Trump administration’s stance on Iran looms. If Trump adopts a more aggressive posture or allows Israel unchecked freedom to target Tehran, Gulf states could face retaliatory threats, with Iran explicitly warning that US bases in the region would be legitimate targets. While reconciliation efforts—such as the China–brokered 2023 Iran-Saudi rapprochement—reflect a shift, many Gulf nations still view Tehran as a significant threat. Tensions in Palestine and Lebanon, driven by Israel’s actions, risk further drawing the Gulf into regional conflicts. Qatar, often scrutinised for its mediation efforts, may reduce its involvement in Gaza under US pressure. Conversely, the UAE appears poised to take a larger role in Gaza’s reconstruction, which could enhance cooperation with Doha and solidify their rapprochement.

5️⃣ 🇨🇦 Trudeau announces resignation: Justin Trudeau has announced he will step down as Canada’s prime minister once the Liberal Party selects a new leader, effectively ending his nearly decade-long tenure. He cited internal party divisions and the need to offer Canadians a clear choice in the next election. Trudeau will remain in office until a successor is chosen through a national leadership process. His departure comes amid sinking polls for the Liberals, with the Conservatives poised to win the upcoming election, scheduled no later than October.

Major Story

🇸🇾 SYRIA’S SHADOW ECONOMY: THE FALL OF A NARCO-STATE

The term "narco-state" is often criticized for its vague and broad application, writes New Lines’ Ralph Outhwaite, as it is traditionally associated with state failure, the concept implies a country where criminal syndicates infiltrate government institutions. However, Syria under Bashar al-Assad challenges this narrative, as the regime, rather than succumbing to criminal influence, actively sponsored and profited from the production of captagon, a powerful amphetamine.

State Sponsorship of the Drug Trade

Unlike typical narco-states, where declining state authority allows criminal groups to thrive, Syria’s government deliberately promoted the captagon trade. Under the protection of Assad’s loyalist forces, including the 4th Armored Division and various militias, Syria became a hub for captagon production. The regime’s involvement in the narcotics trade provided vital financial support, especially amid the economic hardships caused by international sanctions. Between 2020 and 2023, millions of captagon pills were confiscated, revealing the scale of the trade, which targeted markets in Jordan and the Gulf.

The Economic Impact

The captagon trade became a cornerstone of Syria’s economy, with estimates suggesting it generated between $1.9 billion and $5.6 billion annually. However, these profits did not fund state services such as education or healthcare. Instead, they lined the pockets of Assad’s patronage networks, underscoring Syria’s shift from a narco-failed state to a "narco-regime"—where the regime itself controls and benefits from the illicit economy.

Syria exemplifies a “narco-state” not through failure, but as a deliberate policy choice by the regime. The future of Syria’s involvement in the captagon trade depends on whether the next government continues the cycle of state-sponsored narcotrafficking or dismantles it entirely.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇯🇴 🇦🇪 🇶🇦 🇸🇦 Syria’s foreign minister courts Jordan, Gulf states to ‘support economic recovery’: Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani has announced plans to visit Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan following his first official trip to Saudi Arabia earlier this week. In a social media post, he stated the visits aim to promote stability, security, economic recovery, and foster strong partnerships. The new Syrian government, formed by rebels who ended the al-Assad family's long reign last month, is seeking investment from wealthy Gulf nations to rebuild the country's war-torn infrastructure and revive its economy. Saudi Arabia, already playing a significant role, hosted al-Shaibani's high-level delegation this week, which included the new defense minister and intelligence chief.

2️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan suspects Chinese undersea cable sabotage: Taiwan suspects a Chinese-owned cargo ship damaged an undersea cable near its northeastern coast, raising concerns about the security of its offshore communications. The vessel is linked to a Hong Kong company led by a mainland Chinese citizen, prompting allegations of sabotage from Taiwanese officials. This follows a similar incident in the Baltic Sea involving another Chinese vessel in November.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Caretaker government to increase public sector salaries by 400%: Syria’s finance minister announced a 400 percent salary increase for public sector employees, set to take effect next month following administrative restructuring aimed at enhancing efficiency. The pay rise, projected to cost approximately 1.65 trillion Syrian pounds ($127 million), will be funded through existing resources, regional aid, and renewed investments. Finance Minister Mohammed Abazeed described the move as a critical step toward addressing Syria’s economic crisis, with this month’s wages scheduled for immediate distribution. The initiative is part of a broader strategy to stabilize the economy after years of war and sanctions, targeting public employees with essential skills while eliminating ghost workers from the payroll.