Hello and welcome back.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu hails her country’s pro-EU vote as a rebuke to Kremlin interference, Trump’s deputy chief of staff emerges as a key architect of U.S. strikes on Venezuelan drug boats, and Chile enters yet another turbulent election cycle. 

Today’s lead story examines the Trump–Netanyahu proposal for possible Gaza annexation under Tony Blair.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Xi seeks U.S. shift on Taiwan independence during Trump talks: Xi Jinping is expected to press Donald Trump to go beyond Washington’s traditional “One China” ambiguity by formally declaring U.S. opposition to Taiwanese independence—a move Beijing views as the ultimate prize in its long campaign to weaken Taipei’s confidence. Trump, eager for an economic deal with China, has already delayed military aid to Taiwan and softened diplomatic support, raising concern that trade concessions may be taking precedence over deterrence.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Merz warns Europe is “no longer at peace” with Russia: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that while Europe is “not at war, it is no longer at peace” with Russia, describing Moscow’s campaign as an assault on democracy and unity. He backed EU plans to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defence for several years, while Defence Minister Boris Pistorius pledged 2,000 troops in Lithuania to bolster Baltic security. 

3️⃣ 🇲🇬 Madagascar’s president dissolves government after youth-led protests: Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina has dismissed his government after mass protests over crippling power and water shortages left at least 22 people dead and more than 100 injured, according to the UN. The unrest, driven largely by young demonstrators in Antananarivo, marks the most serious challenge to his rule since re-election in 2023.

4️⃣ 🇨🇱 Chile faces yet another election cycle: Since mass protests in 2019, Chileans have gone to the polls almost a dozen times—rejecting both left- and right-leaning attempts to rewrite the Pinochet-era constitution and cycling between extremes while shunning centrist options. Ahead of November’s elections, the Communist Party’s Jeannette Jara and far-right José Antonio Kast lead the field, reflecting once again a frustrated electorate that craves transformation but consistently recoils from concrete proposals.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 RSF closes in on full encirclement of El Fasher: A Yale University report warns that the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are on the verge of fully encircling El Fasher in Darfur, with satellite imagery showing over 68 kilometres of earthen berms now surrounding the city and only a small gap left unsealed. The RSF has tightened control of key exit routes with new checkpoints and armed vehicles, while civilians have been seen fleeing on foot as the paramilitary escalates its assault.

Major Story

🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 TRUMP AND NETANYAHU PROPOSE GAZA ANNEXATION UNDER TONY BLAIR

Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have issued an ultimatum to Hamas, warning the group to accept their 20-point Gaza peace plan or face severe repercussions.

The framework would pause hostilities only if Palestinians surrender political and human rights, accept effective annexation of Gaza under a U.S. administrator (reportedly Tony Blair), and cede control of security and governance to a Washington- and Tel Aviv-led occupying force. The plan sidelines the United Nations, legal protections, and the prospect of a contiguous Palestinian state by legally separating Gaza from the west bank and east Jerusalem while allowing continued Israeli control and detention practices.

Exogenous Peace

The blueprint demands Palestinians renounce resistance and trade the long-term prospect of self-determination for a temporary cessation of violence — all while preserving Israel’s ability to control territory and detain thousands. It would nullify recent rulings and obligations under international law, including orders from the International Court of Justice, and effectively outsource occupation to foreign powers. Even where some regional actors or elements of the Palestinian Authority find the proposal expedient, it contradicts recognised norms about sovereignty, human rights, and the role of the UN in conflict resolution and humanitarian protection.

Analysts warn that the Trump-Netanyahu plan “makes a mockery” of recent recognitions of Palestine by Britain, France, Canada, and Australia, since under its terms no Palestinian state could exist without U.S. and Israeli approval. By formalising dispossession, it strips Palestinians of political agency, undermines civilian protection, and blocks a rights-based settlement. Crucially, it erases legal pathways to accountability and statehood.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 Stephen Miller takes central role in US strikes on Venezuelan boats: Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff and homeland security adviser, has taken a central role in authorising U.S. strikes on alleged Venezuelan drug boats, eclipsing Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The campaign has seen U.S. forces sink multiple vessels, backed by a major naval deployment in the Caribbean, but legal experts warn the justification may not withstand legal scrutiny.

2️⃣ 🇲🇩 🇷🇺 Sandu hails Moldova’s pro-EU vote as rejection of Kremlin interference: Moldovan President Maia Sandu praised voters for resisting Russian pressure after her pro-EU Action and Solidarity party (PAS) secured a slim parliamentary majority in Sunday’s elections. The result, stronger than pre-election polls predicted, bolsters Sandu’s bid to anchor the country of 2.4 million closer to Brussels and further from Russia, despite allegations of cyberattacks, bomb threats, and vote-buying schemes linked to the Kremlin.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

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The Tragedy of Great Power Politics