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US-led diplomacy in Sudan collapses as the RSF seizes El Fasher; Germany seeks a strategic reset with Turkey; and Ethiopia calls for mediation with Eritrea over its Red Sea access dispute.

Our lead story from Busan: Trump and Xi agree to a fragile trade truce after months of escalating tariffs.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

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2️⃣ 🇳🇱 D66 surges as Geert Wilders faces exclusion from new Dutch coalition: The Netherlands’ liberal-progressive D66 party has drawn level with Geert Wilders’s far-right Freedom Party (PVV) after a fiercely contested general election, virtually ensuring Wilders’ exclusion from government. With 99.7% of votes counted, both parties secured 26 seats, though D66 held a narrow lead and is poised to form a broad centrist coalition.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanese president orders army to confront Israeli incursions after border raid: Israeli forces killed a Lebanese municipal worker during a cross-border raid in the southern village of Blida, before launching raids on Nabatieh, sparking outrage and prompting President Joseph Aoun to order the army to confront any future Israeli incursions. Lebanese media reported that soldiers stormed a municipal building and shot Salameh as he slept.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇨🇺 UN overwhelmingly votes to end US embargo on Cuba: The United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to end the decades-old US embargo on Cuba, adopting a resolution backed by 165 countries, with only the United States, Israel, and five others opposing it. Washington had lobbied heavily against the measure, even alleging that thousands of Cubans were fighting for Russia in Ukraine — claims Havana dismissed as baseless. 

5️⃣🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Battle for Pokrovsk intensifies, Putin flaunts new nuclear weapons: Fierce fighting continues around the eastern Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where Russia claims to have encircled 5,500 Ukrainian troops—an assertion dismissed by Kyiv. Meanwhile, Russia escalated its intimidation campaign with a string of weapons tests. President Vladimir Putin announced successful launches of nuclear-powered torpedoes and cruise missiles, boasting they had “no equals in the world.”

Major Story

🇰🇷 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 TRUMP AND XI AGREE FRAGILE TRADE TRUCE AFTER MONTHS OF ESCALATING TARIFFS

The trade war between the United States and China appears to have entered a fragile pause after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached a tentative agreement during talks in Busan, South Korea. Both leaders hailed the meeting as a breakthrough, but the accord looks more like a truce than a lasting peace. After months of punitive tariffs, export restrictions, and retaliatory measures, the deal restores much of the pre-war status quo — easing tensions without resolving the underlying rivalry.

Key concessions and unresolved disputes

Under the agreement, China will resume US soybean imports, delay sweeping restrictions on rare-earth exports, and tighten controls on chemicals used to produce fentanyl. In return, Trump has agreed to halve recent tariff hikes, lowering the average rate to 45%, and to suspend further export controls. However, questions remain over technology restrictions, particularly regarding Nvidia’s AI chips and the pending forced divestment of TikTok’s US operations.

A costly and inconclusive standoff

The six-month confrontation exposed the limits of economic coercion for both powers. US inflation rose to 3%, Chinese exports successfully pivoted to other Asian markets, and Beijing’s stock market outperformed Wall Street. China’s control of rare-earth minerals proved a potent countermeasure, underscoring America’s continued dependence on Chinese supply chains.

Lessons in leverage

For Trump, the pause offers political relief from a costly standoff that hurt US farmers and strained global trade. For Xi, it buys time to advance China’s technological ambitions and present Beijing as a stable global actor. Yet with the truce set to expire in a year, the fundamental contest for economic dominance remains unresolved — and the next confrontation may come sooner than either side expects.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇸 US-led Sudan diplomacy collapses with RSF’s capture of El-Fasher: The RSF’s victory, achieved at catastrophic human cost, underscores the collapse of Sudan’s central authority as the army retreats to its eastern stronghold in Port Sudan. The Trump administration has sought to replicate its Gaza ceasefire diplomacy through the “Quad” — a forum of the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt — but its strategy is undermined by competing regional agendas. With mediators themselves serving as patrons of war, the US effort has devolved into diplomacy by optics — detached from realities on the ground and devoid of leverage to halt Sudan’s violent disintegration.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇹🇷 Germany wants strategic reset with Turkey: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for a deeper strategic partnership between Europe and Turkey during his first official visit to Ankara, praising Turkey’s role as a mediator in Ukraine and Gaza. Merz emphasised the need for closer ties “in a new geopolitical phase marked by great-power politics.” 

3️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 Ethiopia calls for mediation with Eritrea over sea access dispute: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has appealed for international mediation with Eritrea amid rising tensions over Ethiopia’s demand for Red Sea access. Addressing parliament, Abiy reaffirmed Addis Ababa’s “irreversible” claim to maritime access but stressed he had “no intention of going to war.” 

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