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📰 Trump calls Putin

📰 Trump calls Putin

and COP29 opens in Baku

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 11, 2024

Hello,

Today's dispatch covers key developments from conflict zones in Sudan, Russia-Ukraine, and the Middle East.

Chad is considering withdrawing from the counter-insurgency Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), while Sudan rejects Chad's denial of any collaboration with the Rapid Support Forces.

The main focus of this report is the evolving relationship between the African Union and the United Nations, which has been highlighted by high-level consultations between the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council.

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇦🇿 COP29 begins in Baku: COP29 opens today in Baku, Azerbaijan, running until 22 November, though it may extend. About 100 world leaders are expected to attend during the first three days, after which high-stakes negotiations will be handled by their representatives, mainly environment ministers and senior officials. A primary focus for this summit is climate finance. Developing nations are seeking commitments for trillions in funding over the next decade to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address the escalating impacts of climate change. This funding is critical to maintaining the ambitious 1.5C warming limit and managing the severe weather events increasingly driven by rising global temperatures.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇹🇩 Sudan rejects Chad’s denial of Rapid Support Forces collaboration, battle for El Fasher intensifies: Sudan’s Foreign Ministry has dismissed Chad’s denial of support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), asserting that satellite imagery and UN reports confirm Chad's involvement in funnelling weapons and fighters from the UAE to the RSF. Human rights groups, including the U.S.-funded Conflict Observatory, have backed these allegations. “Chad’s support for this terrorist militia — the Rapid Support Forces — is indisputable,” the ministry stated. Chad, however, refuted these claims, noting it has hosted 1.5 million Sudanese refugees over two decades. Sudan has since filed a complaint with the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, accusing Chad of complicity in RSF-led aggression and violence. Meanwhile, as the RSF attacks El Fasher in North Darfur, the IOM reports that 350 families were displaced between November 7 and 9 amidst intensifying battles.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇮🇱 Germany’s military assistance to Israel violates international law: In late October, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock defended Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians in a parliamentary address, sparking international criticism. The UN’s special rapporteur on Palestine, Francesca Albanese, warned that Germany’s alignment with a state allegedly committing international crimes is not only a political choice but one with legal repercussions. Many have denounced Germany’s unwavering pro-Israel stance, which includes censorship, police raids, bans on keffiyehs in schools, and repression of pro-Palestine protests—all attributed to its historical guilt. Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed this support, pledging Germany’s loyalty to Israel. Sociologist Jürgen Mackert argues that while Germany claims to have learned from its history, it remains trapped in selectively remembering the Holocaust while ignoring its colonial crimes in Namibia, thus perpetuating support for actions seen as genocidal, without confronting its own past of “annihilating the Other.”

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia and Ukraine exchange drone attacks: Ukraine launched its largest drone strike on Moscow since Russia's 2022 invasion, temporarily closing three airports and diverting flights, with at least one injury reported. Russian sources said its air defences intercepted 70 drones, half over Moscow and others in western Russia. Ukraine’s military reported hitting an ammunition depot near Bryansk, with video footage showing fires and explosions. The strike is viewed as a response to an intense Russian drone attack on Kyiv following Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president. Over the weekend, Moscow deployed 145 drones, the largest assault yet, causing damage in Odessa. Both nations have advanced their UAV programs, with Ukraine enhancing its drone range and Russia deploying jamming-resistant drones. Meanwhile, Russia amassed 50,000 troops, likely preparing a major offensive to retake Ukrainian-held areas in the Kursk region.

5️⃣ 🇹🇩 🇳🇬 🇨🇲 🇳🇪 🇧🇯 Chad mulls MNJTF withdrawal: Chad’s government announced during the weekend that it may withdraw its troops from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a regional coalition with Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Benin—dedicated to fighting Islamist militants like Boko Haram across the Lake Chad Basin—citing inadequate regional coordination. This follows a late October attack by Boko Haram in Chad’s Lake Province, which killed over 40 Chadian soldiers. Fulbert Ngodji, an analyst with International Crisis Group, sees this move as a sign of mounting frustration within Chad, where officials feel increasingly isolated in the fight against Islamist insurgents. Should Chad proceed with this withdrawal, it could significantly weaken the MNJTF, already struggling with competing member-state priorities, and further undermine the coalition’s effectiveness against transnational jihadist threats.

Major Story

🇺🇳 UNITED NATIONS–AFRICAN UNION COOPERATION: PROGRESS AND CHALLENGES

Background

In October 2023, significant steps were made in strengthening the cooperation between the United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU). Key events included high-level consultations between the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC), the first informal dialogue retreat, and the UN-AU High-Level Conference in Addis Ababa. These meetings underscored the depth of the partnership between the two organisations, highlighting their joint efforts in advancing peace and security across Africa.

The cooperation between the UN and the AU is grounded in Chapter VIII of the UN Charter, which allows for regional partnerships in maintaining international peace. Over the years, the UN has developed a robust relationship with the AU, focusing on areas such as peace and security, human rights, and development. Notable platforms for this cooperation include the UN-AU Joint Task Force (JTF) and the annual UN-AU High-Level Conference, established in 2017, which rotates between New York and Addis Ababa.

The Role of the A3

A key player in this partnership is the A3—three African members of the UN Security Council—who have played a pivotal role in advancing African priorities within the Council. Their coordination has led to significant resolutions on African peace and security issues, such as the “Silencing the Guns” initiative, and the financing of AU-led Peace Support Operations (AUPSOs). However, their unity faces challenges, particularly with the competing interests of permanent members of the Security Council.

Challenges & Geopolitical Rivalries

Despite progress, challenges remain in ensuring effective crisis management in Africa. Diverging interests between the UN and the AU, as well as geopolitical rivalries, complicate responses to conflicts in regions like the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. For the partnership to succeed, both organisations must work pragmatically, focusing on joint action and overcoming political obstacles to address Africa's pressing peace and security challenges effectively.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israeli airstrikes on Damascus kills over seven civilians: Syrian authorities reported an Israeli airstrike on Sunday that struck a residential building in the Sayyidah Zaynab area near Damascus, according to state news agency SANA. Israel’s military did not confirm the strike, but spokesperson Avichay Adraee recently stated on X that Israel has targeted ostensibly Hizbollah-affiliated weapons facilities in Syria. Since 2011, Israel has periodically launched airstrikes in Syria, primarily targeting Iranian, Syrian, and Hizbollah positions.

2️⃣ 🇶🇦 Qatar suspends role as mediator between Israel and Hamas: Qatar has paused its mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas, citing a lack of willingness from both parties to negotiate. This follows U.S. pressure to expel Hamas representatives from Doha, with reports of frustration over stalled ceasefire talks. Hamas leadership may now seek a new base, with Turkey emerging as a likely candidate amid ongoing Israeli assassination attempts on senior figures.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump talks to Putin, urges de-escalation in Ukraine: President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging against escalation in Ukraine while highlighting the U.S. military presence in Europe. Trump hinted at supporting a peace deal where Russia might retain some captured territory, a stance raising concerns in Kyiv. The call, part of Trump’s outreach to global leaders post-election, reflects uncertainty about his approach to the war as Ukraine braces for intensified Russian counteroffensives.