Hello and welcome back. 

From the Middle East, rising investments in the U.S. signal a shift from security dependence to economic influence, while Trump and Netanyahu clash over Iran nuclear diplomacy. In South Asia, India greenlights a stealth fighter programme amid ongoing tensions with Pakistan. In Latin America, Mexico’s unprecedented judicial elections stir both hope and concern.

Today’s lead story explains the debate around the UN80 reforms—renewal or retrenchment?

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Israeli Gaza aid plan descends into chaos, IDF fires at civilians: A joint U.S.-Israeli aid initiative in Gaza spiralled into chaos as thousands of starving Palestinians rushed a fenced-off distribution site, prompting gunfire from Israeli forces and possibly U.S. contractors. Eyewitnesses cited delays and crowd control failures, while sources reported three deaths and dozens injured—claims Israel denies. Humanitarian agencies condemned the use of Israeli-made food parcels as grossly insufficient for those recovering from starvation. The scheme, paired with forced evacuations and military offensives, has been denounced as part of a broader depopulation strategy. The UN has denounced the scheme and viral images of fenced-in civilians triggered global backlash. Since March, nearly all aid has been blocked, pushing Gaza’s population toward famine. Hundreds of Palestinians—mainly children and elderly—have died from hunger and lack of medicine.

2️⃣ 🇲🇽 Mexico’s unprecedented judicial elections raise hopes and fears: On 1 June, Mexico will hold the world’s largest-ever direct election of judges, replacing nearly 2,600 sitting officials—including Supreme Court justices—with candidates chosen by popular vote. While the move is framed by President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government as a way to democratise justice and tackle corruption, critics argue it exposes the judiciary to politicisation, weakened oversight, and infiltration by criminal groups. Independent turnout projections are low, and concerns abound over rushed vetting, political meddling, and violence. Supporters say the reform breaks elite control, while opponents warn it may deepen impunity in a country already plagued by systemic legal failures. The reform is a legacy of former president López Obrador’s clashes with the judiciary, and its outcome could shape Mexico’s battle against organised crime—and the integrity of its democratic institutions—for years to come.

3️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 U.S. Republicans accuse EU of influencing Poland elections: U.S. House Republicans have accused the European Commission of favouring Polish centrist candidate Rafał Trzaskowski ahead of Sunday’s presidential run-off, criticising what they called a “double standard” in EU oversight. In a letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Brian Mast cited alleged foreign-backed social media campaigns supporting Trzaskowski and discrediting his right-wing rival Karol Nawrocki. Poland’s NASK agency confirmed the ads but could not verify their origin. The PiS party, backing Nawrocki, also alleges government interference in freezing public campaign funds. While EU officials maintain that elections are a national matter, critics say the Commission’s selective enforcement—tough under the PiS government but silent now—risks damaging its democratic credibility.

4️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇸🇩 Iran reasserts itself in Sudan, but influence remains constrained: Since renewing ties with Sudan in late 2023, Iran has deepened its role in the country’s civil war, supplying drones, advisors, and technical aid to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This marks a shift from covert backing to open strategic cooperation, reinforced by military and economic agreements signed in February 2024. However, Iran’s ambitions face serious constraints. Its request for a Red Sea naval base was denied, and SAF’s ties to Egypt, Turkey, and Russia dilute Tehran’s leverage. While Iranian support has helped the SAF regain ground, Sudan’s fragmented battlefield and the risk of Israeli or U.S. retaliation limit Iran’s reach. Tehran has gained influence—but remains bound by Sudan’s complex geopolitics (including the exhaustive engagement of foreign actors) and its own need for caution.

5️⃣ 🇼🇸 Samoa’s prime minister seeks early election after budget collapse: Samoa’s Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata‘afa, one of the Pacific’s few female leaders, has called an early election after losing a crucial budget vote 34–16 in parliament. The defeat follows months of political infighting, including her expulsion from the ruling FAST Party after forcing out its chair, La’auli Leuatea Schmidt, who faces criminal charges. Schmidt then aligned with the opposition, isolating Fiame and enabling the budget’s failure. Despite previous no-confidence motions and personal attacks, Fiame will remain caretaker PM until polls are held. Her 2021 victory ended four decades of HRPP rule, but her future now hinges on the election. Observers note her lasting legacy as a reformist and anti-corruption figure, with speculation mounting over whether she will form a new party and remain a political force.

Major Story

🇺🇳 UN80 REFORMS: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RENEWAL OR A MASK FOR RETRENCHMENT? 

The United Nations’ UN80 initiative, unveiled by Secretary-General António Guterres in March 2025, aims to modernise and streamline the organisation ahead of its 80th anniversary. But while framed as a strategic overhaul, the reform drive has triggered concern within UN circles that its true focus is austerity, not effectiveness. Leaks and dissent suggest growing anxiety among staff that critical work—particularly on human rights, gender equality, and development—could be weakened under the guise of efficiency.

Mounting Financial Pressures

With the U.S. and other member states delaying or slashing contributions—leaving $2.4 billion in dues unpaid against a $3.5 billion budget—the UN faces a fiscal crisis. Guterres’s task force, led by Guy Ryder and Catherine Pollard, has proposed deep structural changes, including merging mandates across the UN’s three pillars (peace and security, development, human rights) and relocating staff from New York and Geneva to cheaper cities. While pitched as cost-saving, critics fear this will diminish impact, particularly in areas already under strain.

Risks to Human Rights Monitoring

One proposal to consolidate multiple human rights mandates into a single Office for the Protection of Vulnerable Populations has alarmed advocates. Human Rights Watch warns this risks blunting specialised scrutiny on sexual violence, children in conflict, and abuse prevention—functions that rely on expert attention. A similar precedent in Yemen, where the UN disbanded an investigative body in 2021, was followed by a rise in civilian attacks, reinforcing concerns about accountability erosion.

Gender Equality and Development in Jeopardy

Gender advisers and former officials fear that gender units—many staffed by women on short-term contracts—may be viewed as expendable in the proposed 20% staff cuts. Meanwhile, critics argue the development reforms simply shrink operations without empowering local actors or correcting structural inefficiencies. As ODI’s Sara Pantuliano notes, the reform risks being “another technocratic exercise” disconnected from ground realities.

A Polarised Reform Debate

Some, like former UN official Damian Lilly, argue that the moment offers a rare chance to confront inefficiencies and redundancies. But others, including staff unions, raise alarms over the rushed process, lack of transparency, and absence of gender or equity experts on key working groups.

Ultimately, while many agree reform is necessary, the fear is that UN80 will prioritise savings over substance—weakening the very mandates that give the organisation its moral and operational legitimacy.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 Trump, Netanyahu clash over Iran nuclear diplomacy: A phone call between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly turned heated last week, as the two leaders disagreed over the U.S. approach to Iran’s nuclear programme. According to Israel’s Channel 12, Trump pushed for a diplomatic resolution, claiming confidence in his ability to broker a deal. Netanyahu, wanted by the ICC over Gaza war crimes, reportedly opposed this stance. Both sides have denied tensions, but strains persist amid direct U.S.-Hamas talks and Israel’s continued Gaza siege. Meanwhile, Washington and Tehran have completed five rounds of indirect talks in Oman and Italy, with Iran refusing to halt uranium enrichment. Trump warned of “powerful” military consequences if diplomacy fails. 

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 India approves stealth fighter programme amid Pakistan tensions: India has greenlit the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program, its first indigenous twin-engine 5th generation stealth fighter, the Defence Ministry confirmed. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh approved the initiative, which will be led by the state-run Aeronautical Development Agency in collaboration with industry partners. The project aims to enhance India’s aerospace self-reliance by using domestic expertise and resources. While India has traditionally relied on Russian and Israeli military imports, it is increasingly prioritising homegrown systems. The approval follows a 9.5% rise in India’s defence budget this year, now totalling $78.7 billion. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India remained among the world’s top five defence spenders last year.

3️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇺🇸 Gulf investments in the U.S. mark shift from security clients to economic powerbrokers: Trump’s return to office has spurred a bold strategic pivot from Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are leveraging vast investments—$600B to $1T from Riyadh and $1.4T from Abu Dhabi—to entrench themselves in the U.S. economy. Moving beyond traditional oil-for-security deals, Gulf sovereign wealth funds are now anchoring partnerships in semiconductors, clean energy, and R&D. This marks a deliberate shift toward economic co-stewardship, aiming to shape global rules on technology and finance. By tying U.S. jobs and lawmakers to Gulf capital, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seek not only diversification but geopolitical influence—redefining national security through economic entanglement.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics