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Ukrainian drone strike ignites Sochi oil depot as cross-border attacks escalate; Rwanda and DRC deepen economic ties under U.S.-brokered peace; Trump deploys U.S. nuclear submarines to strategic waters following Medvedev’s warning.

Our lead story examines Syria’s captagon trade after Assad, assessing its shifting dynamics and the security implications for Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 Trump and von der Leyen strike trade deal heavily favouring United States, according to Politico: The trade accord announced by U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at Trump’s Scottish resort tilts decisively toward Washington. Europe faces 15 percent tariffs on most exports while committing to $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases and $600 billion in prospective investments. Some sectors, like aviation and semiconductors, benefit from zero-for-zero tariffs, but European automakers and pharmaceutical firms are bracing for job losses and higher costs. Analysts note that much of the deal is politically performative and logistically unrealistic, with energy targets requiring a tripling of U.S. imports. While U.S. industries—from oil to AI chips—stand to gain, the agreement exposes Europe’s economic vulnerabilities and raises fears that investment and production will shift to the United States.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇷🇺 India rejects Trump’s claim of halting Russian oil purchases: India has dismissed claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that it has stopped importing Russian oil ahead of looming U.S. sanctions on Moscow’s trading partners. Indian officials said state refiners continue buying Russian crude under long-term contracts, guided by price, supply logistics, and market conditions, stressing that such imports comply with international norms and the G7-EU price-cap system. Trump, who has threatened 25% tariffs on Indian goods and penalties for energy trade with Russia, hailed reports of a suspension as “a good step,” though New Delhi denied any policy change. Russia remains India’s top oil supplier, providing about 35% of imports. Officials argue that buying discounted Russian crude helps stabilise domestic costs and global prices, even as Washington pressures partners to isolate Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

3️⃣ 🇸🇸 Kiir escalates military offensive as border tensions and political reshuffles intensify in South Sudan: President Salva Kiir’s SSPDF, backed by Ugandan forces, pressed attacks on SPLA‑IO strongholds across Unity, Jonglei, Upper Nile, and the Equatorias through July. Fighting in Jonglei’s Fangak spilled into Pigi, while opposition forces launched raids and abductions in Western and Central Equatoria. Mid‑July assaults in Mundri East and Tambura killed over 20 people, including SSPDF soldiers, and displaced thousands. On 28 July, SSPDF exchanged fire with Uganda’s UPDF in Kajo‑Keji, highlighting frictions with its own security partner despite subsequent de‑escalation pledges. Politically, Kiir continued consolidating power: he replaced Army Chief Paul Nang Majok with Dau Aturjong, purged security officials, and installed Paul Logali Jumi as SPLM secretary‑general to revitalise a party fractured by reshuffles and the rise of Kiir’s favoured successor, Bol Mel.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli forces kill more aid seekers in Gaza as Ben-Gvir sparks outrage with al-Aqsa visit: Israeli forces killed at least 27 Palestinians seeking food in Gaza on Sunday, while six more died from starvation, according to local officials. Witnesses said troops opened fire on crowds near a US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation distribution site, as hunger deepens under Israel’s blockade. The Gaza health ministry reported 119 deaths in 24 hours, including aid seekers and victims of strikes on a school and the Palestinian Red Crescent headquarters in Khan Younis. Famine is accelerating, with 175 deaths from hunger—93 of them children—since the war began. The crisis coincided with Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praying at al-Aqsa mosque, prompting Jordan to condemn the move as a “provocation.”

5️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukrainian drone strike ignites Sochi oil depot amid intensified cross-border attacks: A Ukrainian drone strike overnight set ablaze an oil depot near Sochi, Russia, sparking a massive fire that required over 120 firefighters to extinguish. Regional governor Veniamin Kondratyev confirmed that debris hit a fuel tank as videos showed black smoke towering over the 2014 Olympic host city. Flights at Sochi airport were briefly suspended. The attack came amid one of Ukraine’s deadliest weeks in months, with a Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv injuring at least seven, and earlier strikes on Kyiv killing 31. Ukraine said it destroyed 60 of 76 Russian drones, while Moscow claimed to have intercepted 93 Ukrainian drones. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans for a 1,200-person prisoner swap as he urged allies for more air defences. Meanwhile, Kyiv pledged “zero tolerance” for corruption after arrests in a weapons procurement scandal.

Major Story

🇸🇾 🇯🇴 🇸🇦 🇱🇧 SYRIA’S CAPTAGON TRADE AFTER ASSAD

Before his ouster in late 2024, Bashar al-Assad presided over a state-backed captagon industry that became central to Syria’s wartime economy and regional leverage. Investigations tied the 4th Armored Division, Military Intelligence Directorate, and Assad family members to industrial-scale production and trafficking, using state facilities such as Mazzeh Airport and regime-linked farms. Captagon sales generated up to $1.8 billion annually—twice Syria’s legal exports—funding loyalist networks and granting the regime leverage over Gulf states by exporting a public health crisis it could later “solve” for political concessions. Assad’s claims that Syria was merely a transit hub collapsed after his fall, when seizures in former regime strongholds exceeded 200 million pills in four months—20 times the regime’s reported 2024 total.

Post-Assad Shifts and Persistent Challenges

Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has pledged to dismantle the industry. Major interdictions of labs and warehouses signal genuine intent, but production expertise and smuggling networks endure. Southern Syria, particularly Suwayda, remains a hotspot, with some labs relocating to Lebanon under protection from local militias. Smuggling persists at a smaller scale, and rising prices may spur proliferation of low-grade, decentralised labs and push users toward methamphetamine, deepening public health risks.

Regional and Policy Implications

The regional response has intensified. Jordan has launched cross-border airstrikes and intelligence operations, while Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon now coordinate border security under a Saudi-brokered agreement. Yet Syria’s interim authorities lack institutional capacity: seizures are often burned or dumped in waterways, posing environmental hazards, and enforcement remains fragmented.

As industrial-scale state sponsorship disappears, supply is likely to decline but decentralise, increasing volatility and violence in trafficking routes. In a New Lines Institute report, Karam Shaar advocates that regional actors should prioritise intelligence sharing, joint border operations, and standardised safe disposal protocols, supported by Gulf states, the U.S., EU, and U.K. Strengthening Syria’s economic resilience and local livelihoods is essential, as without alternative revenue streams and border security, the captagon trade will continue to adapt rather than disappear.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Trump orders U.S. nuclear submarines to strategic waters after Medvedev remarks: President Donald Trump announced Friday that he had ordered two Navy nuclear submarines to “appropriate regions” in response to inflammatory statements by Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev. Posting on Truth Social, Trump said the move was to ensure the US was “prepared,” without specifying the submarines’ type or location. The U.S. Navy operates three classes of nuclear-powered submarines: Ohio-class ballistic-missile subs, capable of launching Trident nuclear warheads from thousands of miles away; converted guided-missile subs carrying Tomahawks; and fast-attack subs designed to hunt enemy vessels and strike land targets. Submarine deployments are among the military’s most closely guarded secrets, and their movements are typically undisclosed. Trump’s order signals heightened deterrence amid escalating rhetoric between Washington and Moscow.

2️⃣ 🇷🇼 🇨🇩 Rwanda and DRC advance economic integration under Washington peace deal: Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have agreed on a preliminary framework for regional economic integration, advancing the U.S.-brokered peace deal signed in Washington in June. The outline covers cooperation on energy, infrastructure, mineral supply chains, public health, and conservation, with input from civil society and private stakeholders expected before finalisation. The plan affirms each nation’s sovereign control over its natural resources while committing to curb mineral exploitation by armed groups and develop local processing capacity. Projects highlighted include the Ruzizi III hydropower plant and sustainable methane extraction from Lake Kivu, alongside links to the U.S.-backed Lobito Corridor to boost trade and counter Chinese influence. A formal signing by regional leaders at the White House is planned, as Kigali and Kinshasa seek to stabilise conflict-prone eastern Congo and unlock foreign investment.

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Book Shelf

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