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📰 Trump issues new reciprocal tariffs

📰 Trump issues new reciprocal tariffs

and Venezuela's gold rush

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 01, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Iran grapples with a resurgence of Baluch and Kurdish militancy amid post-war instability, while in northern Burkina Faso, a JNIM assault on a military base has left 50 soldiers dead. Israel has also admitted to hundreds of ceasefire violations along the Lebanese border.

Our lead story shifts to Venezuela, where the country’s gold rush—fuelled by economic collapse—is driving crime, conflict, and environmental devastation, as criminal networks, guerrillas, and rogue soldiers battle for control of lucrative mining zones.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇲🇽 🇨🇦 Trump imposes new round of global tariffs as trade partners brace for economic fallout: U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a sweeping executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs of 10–41% on imports from 68 nations and the EU, targeting both allies and adversaries. The measures, aimed at bolstering U.S. exporters, will take effect in seven days, replacing Friday’s initial deadline and giving select countries—like Mexico—a brief window for negotiations. Canada now faces a 35% tariff, while Syria, Laos, and Myanmar are hit with punitive rates of 40% or more. Trump cited foreign “looting” of U.S. trade and linked Canada’s penalty to fentanyl concerns and Ottawa’s recognition of Palestine. Critics warn the tariffs could stoke inflation and disrupt supply chains, while legal challenges to Trump’s broad use of emergency economic powers are already underway. Despite global unease, Trump insists the strategy is “going very well, very smooth.”

2️⃣ 🇧🇩 🇲🇾 Bangladesh seeks Malaysia’s backing for ASEAN entry amid political uncertainty: Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus has revived efforts to join ASEAN, seeking Malaysia’s support as the bloc’s current chair. Dhaka hopes first to secure sectoral dialogue partner status, a step toward eventual membership. Yet analysts warn the path will be slow and fraught, given domestic instability, the delayed 2026 election, and lingering regional scepticism. ASEAN remains cautious about admitting states with governance risks, particularly amid Myanmar’s ongoing turmoil and tensions over the Rohingya crisis. Malaysia’s influence could aid Dhaka’s bid, but all 10 members must consent, and Myanmar is expected to resist. Analysts note that membership could help Bangladesh diversify exports, integrate into regional supply chains, and enhance its diplomatic profile—but only if Dhaka demonstrates stability and commitment to ASEAN’s principles.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇳 Myanmar junta ends state of emergency to prepare for heavily boycotted December election: Myanmar’s military has lifted its state of emergency to pave the way for elections planned for December, despite a nationwide civil war and a boycott by opposition groups. The junta, led by Min Aung Hlaing since the 2021 coup against Aung San Suu Kyi, claims the vote will restore “multiparty democracy,” though UN experts have dismissed it as a bid to legitimise military rule. Political parties are registering and electronic voting preparations are underway, yet vast areas remain beyond government control, and a 2023 census missed 19 million people due to security constraints. New laws threaten protesters with up to 10 years in prison, and analysts warn the poll could trigger intensified rebel offensives even as the junta offers cash incentives for fighters to surrender.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 State Dept. sanctions Palestinian leadership: The Trump administration has imposed visa bans and sanctions on members of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), accusing them of supporting terrorism and undermining peace efforts. Yet analysts warn the move is counterproductive: by weakening the PA, Washington risks strengthening Hamas, the PA’s chief political rival, which the U.S. claims it seeks to isolate. A robust PA is widely seen as the most credible political counterweight to Hamas. The State Department cited the PA and PLO’s appeals to the International Criminal Court and payments to prisoners’ families as justification for their sanctions. Critics argue the measures align with Trump’s sweeping defense of Israel during the Gaza war, including sanctions on ICC judges and UN officials, and further marginalise Palestinian diplomacy as global momentum builds for formal recognition of Palestinian statehood.

5️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇮🇷 Cairo and Tehran forge pragmatic rapprochement: Egypt and Iran are cautiously moving toward normalisation after four decades of estrangement, driven by shared crises rather than genuine affinity. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s June visit to Cairo—including symbolic gestures like the renaming of Khalid al-Islambouli Street—marked a decisive thaw. Both nations now face converging pressures: Houthi attacks have cut Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue, while Israel’s strikes on Iran and Gaza have heightened Tehran’s isolation and exposed Egypt’s energy vulnerability. Regional shifts, from Sudan’s war to Saudi-Iran détente, further incentivise cooperation. Despite prospects for embassies and limited trade, the partnership remains transactional. Egypt’s reliance on Israel and U.S. aid, and Iran’s support for Hamas, ensure that the rapprochement is a marriage of convenience, not a strategic alliance.

Major Story

🇻🇪 🇨🇴 VENEZUELA’S GOLD RUSH: CRIME, CONFLICT, AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEVASTATION

Southern Venezuela’s Bolívar and Amazonas states have become the epicentre of a sprawling illicit gold economy. Criminal syndicates, Colombian guerrilla groups, and rogue Venezuelan soldiers compete—and often collaborate—for control of mines that generate vast profits amid global gold price highs. As Venezuela’s sanction-inflicted economic collapse deepens and political conflict grinds on, small‑scale miners, many displaced from other regions, labour under the thumb of whoever controls the pits. These mines have become contested zones where violence, extortion, and exploitation are routine.

While Caracas claims to be cracking down on illegal mining, evidence suggests that military deployments largely reshuffle who profits. Soldiers frequently impose “taxes,” seize mines for personal enrichment, or enter informal arrangements allowing guerrillas to retain control in exchange for favours. When Venezuelan crime networks, known as sistemas, are displaced, they move deeper into the rainforest, accelerating deforestation and the spread of unregulated mining.

Human and Environmental Toll

The boom in illicit mining has come at devastating human and ecological cost. Mercury, widely used to extract gold, contaminates rivers and fish, threatening the health of local communities. Accidents are frequent, as untrained miners work in perilous conditions with little safety equipment. Armed groups enforce arbitrary rules with violence; defiance can mean beatings or death. Child labour and human trafficking are widespread, and Indigenous communities—about half the population of Amazonas—face both coercion and co‑option. Some leaders are bribed to allow mining on their lands, while others watch traditional agriculture give way to risky and exploitative mining work.

Political Calculations and International Leverage

Despite sporadic military operations since 2022, illicit mining has only expanded, reflecting the state’s complicity and reliance on local actors to secure profit and loyalty. Following Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election, President Nicolás Maduro’s dependence on the armed forces appears to have given commanders freer rein in the south. The government’s rhetoric of environmental protection has, in practice, masked a system of predation that fuels both local suffering and ecological destruction. Yet Maduro’s desire for renewed international legitimacy presents a potential point of leverage. Foreign governments and gold buyers—particularly in Asia and the Middle East—could press Caracas to curb abuses by demanding conflict‑free sourcing. International environmental and humanitarian organisations, if granted access, could help monitor conditions, support Indigenous communities, and mitigate harm.

Turning the Tide

Ultimately, meaningful change depends on Venezuelan authorities abandoning their role as predators and assuming responsibility for protecting local populations and the Amazon’s fragile ecosystem. Without that shift, the gold rush in Venezuela’s south will remain a driver of violence, exploitation, and environmental devastation—one that foreign pressure can only partially temper.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 Iran faces renewed Baluch and Kurdish militancy amid post-war fragility: Iran is facing a surge in cross-border militancy, with deadly attacks by Baluch and Kurdish groups targeting security forces in recent days. In Zahedan, the Sunni militant group Jaish Ul-Adl claimed a courthouse assault that killed six, while unidentified gunmen later shot dead a local Basij commander. In the Kurdish-majority west, clashes in Baneh and Sardasht killed multiple border guards and Basij fighters, with PJAK, the Iranian arm of the PKK, claiming responsibility for some incidents. These flare-ups follow Iran’s 12-day war with Israel and highlight the persistent instability of its borderlands. While Tehran has previously responded with strikes in Iraq and Pakistan, it is now likely to prioritise diplomacy with Baghdad, Erbil, and Islamabad to contain violence without opening new fronts.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇺🇳 Israel admits to hundreds of ceasefire violations in Lebanon: Israel has acknowledged carrying out over 500 airstrikes in Lebanon since a ceasefire began in November 2024, despite the truce remaining formally in place. According to Haaretz, the military described these operations as “achievements,” claiming they killed over 230 Hizbollah fighters, destroyed thousands of rockets, and severely weakened the group’s leadership and infrastructure. Neutral monitoring sources reveal that the number of violations totals over 3000, with civilians overwhelmingly targeted. UN and Lebanese officials report that over 80 civilians, including children, have been killed since the ceasefire began, with homes, schools, and medical facilities damaged in repeated Israeli attacks.

3️⃣ 🇧🇫 50 soldiers in killed in northern Burkina Faso base after latest JNIM attack: Around 50 soldiers were killed in northern Burkina Faso when suspected fighters from Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) stormed a military base in Dargo, Boulsa province. Local sources told the Associated Press that roughly 100 militants overran the site, killing troops before looting and burning the base. The military government has not publicly commented on the assault. JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate, has escalated attacks across Burkina Faso, which now faces widespread militant control beyond the capital. The surge in violence has fueled political instability, prompting two recent coups, but military leader Ibrahim Traoré has struggled to contain the insurgency despite reshuffling security and political alliances.