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Today, oil prices climb as OPEC+ maintains output levels, Trump and Musk’s relationship fractures amid a heated dispute over economic policy, and Israeli strikes in Beirut mark another breach of the ceasefire, alongside reported efforts to arm Gaza paramilitaries. In Latin America, Guatemala escalates tensions by targeting Colombian officials involved in anti-corruption investigations.

Our lead story turns to Nigeria, where ISWAP’s resurgence highlights the deepening security crisis gripping West Africa.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 U.S.-China tensions escalate as Hegseth strikes a hard line in Asia: Despite U.S. President Trump's recently friendly rhetoric toward Chinese President Xi and calls for closer ties, his administration's actions suggest a more hawkish stance. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that Asia faces a choice: align with the U.S. to “achieve peace through strength” or risk Chinese hegemony. Hegseth insisted allies cannot balance economic ties with China while relying on U.S. security guarantees, urging them to commit 5% of GDP to defense. Although regional actors share concerns about Beijing’s assertiveness, particularly in Taiwan and the South China Sea, Hegseth’s remarks offered scant room for diplomacy. Xi’s decision not to send Defense Minister Dong Jun to the forum only deepened the divide. As tensions escalate, maintaining high-level U.S.-China dialogue is crucial. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hints Trump and Xi could speak soon, offering a rare chance to reset fragile relations.

2️⃣ 🇬🇹 🇨🇴 🇺🇳 Guatemala targets Colombian officials over anti-corruption efforts: On 2 June, a Guatemalan court ordered the arrest of Colombia’s Attorney General Luz Adriana Camargo Garzón and Ambassador to the Vatican Iván Velásquez. Both played leading roles in the UN-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), which was disbanded in 2019. Prosecutors under Guatemala’s Attorney General María Consuelo Porras allege a cooperation deal CICIG negotiated with Brazil’s Odebrecht was illegal. Arrest warrants were also issued for 24 former CICIG staff, ten of whom are now in exile. Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo and Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro denounced the charges as politically motivated. Porras, sanctioned by the U.S. and EU for corruption, has faced ongoing tensions with Arévalo since his 2024 inauguration. Though Camargo and Velásquez have diplomatic immunity, the move highlights persistent efforts to undermine Guatemala’s anti-corruption legacy.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇱🇾 🇸🇸 UN sanctions on South Sudan and Libya survive amid growing resistance: Defying growing scepticism toward sanctions, the UN Security Council last week renewed the arms embargo on South Sudan and extended authorisation for the EU’s naval mission enforcing Libya’s embargo. Both measures narrowly passed, overcoming resistance from African states, China, and Russia, who have pushed for loosening sanctions across the continent. With Pakistan replacing Japan on the Council, many anticipated the mandates would fail without vetoes. However, South Sudan’s escalating conflict swayed opinion, while quiet concerns among Algeria, Sierra Leone, and Somalia—despite an African Union request to lift the embargo—led them to abstain, joined by China, Pakistan, and Russia. In Libya’s case, EU diplomacy secured Tripoli’s agreement by establishing a joint working group over the contested Operation Irini. The votes signal that while pressure to erode sanctions remains, many states still view them as a useful, if contested, tool.

4️⃣ 🇱🇾 🇹🇷 🇷🇺 Turkey and Russia tighten grip on Libya’s fractured landscape: Recent militia clashes in Tripoli have reignited fears of renewed conflict in Libya, but the deeper story is the growing dominance of Turkey and Russia. As domestic factions remain gridlocked, Ankara and Moscow are cementing their influence. Turkey, backing Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah’s GNU, has entrenched its role through military support and energy deals, while hedging its bets by courting eastern leaders like Saddam Haftar, son of Khalifa Haftar. Meanwhile, Russia has deepened ties with Khalifa Haftar’s LNA, expanded its military footprint, and pursued energy ventures with Tripoli. This managed rivalry mirrors their engagements in Syria and the Caucasus. With Western influence waning, the power balance tilts toward Turkey, though Russia’s strategic ambitions remain formidable. Libya’s future political settlement is unlikely without Ankara’s and Moscow’s cooperation—entrenching a fragile stalemate with both powers at its core.

5️⃣ 🇮🇶 Baghdad–Erbil budget standoff escalates as Kurdish leaders threaten withdrawal: Iraq’s financial dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) deepened after Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and President Abdul Latif Rashid called for constitutional solutions to stalled salary payments. Kurdish lawmakers warned of withdrawing from Baghdad if payments remain suspended. The Finance Ministry recently halted transfers, citing KRG's failure to meet oil revenue obligations under the 2023 budget. Kurdish employees have filed a lawsuit demanding resumed payments, invoking a February court ruling mandating coordination via federal banks. Kurdish blocs condemned the Finance Ministry’s move as politically motivated, with senior figures warning of withdrawal before elections. Tensions have grown after the KRG signed oil deals with U.S. firms, which Baghdad views as provocative. The deadlock threatens Iraq’s stability ahead of national elections amid rising discontent over economic mismanagement.

Major Story

🇳🇬 ISWAP’S RESURGENCE UNDERSCORES WEST AFRICA’S GROWING SECURITY CRISIS 

Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has launched its most successful offensive yet in Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin, overwhelming military bases and displacing recently resettled civilians. Dubbed the “holocaust of the camps,” the campaign has gathered pace since January, culminating in major raids in Borno State, including the temporary capture of Marte—vital for its access to smuggling routes—and attacks on key military formations like the 27 Task Force Brigade near Buni Yadi.

ISWAP’s Strategic Evolution

ISWAP has steadily distinguished itself from Boko Haram’s original faction, Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), by focusing on military targets and adopting governance structures in the Lake Chad region. Since neutralising JAS leader Abubakar Shekau in 2021, ISWAP has expanded its influence, overcoming earlier setbacks from regional military pressure and internal splinters.

The group’s restructuring into three provinces—Buhaira, Faruq, and Krenowa—has allowed it to project power into neighbouring Cameroon and Adamawa State, extending its reach far beyond Borno’s north.

Tactics, Technology, and External Support

ISWAP’s resurgence reflects a tactical and technological leap. It now executes near-simultaneous attacks, employs motorbikes for mobility, and has integrated armed drones—an innovation refined under the guidance of Islamic State operatives active in Lake Chad. These tactics, borrowed from conflicts in Syria and Iraq, mark a significant evolution from earlier guerrilla strategies.

A Regional Threat

ISWAP’s rise is emblematic of a broader crisis. Across West Africa, jihadist groups like al-Qaeda’s Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have expanded their footprints, exploiting governance vacuums and weak regional cooperation. The resurgence of ISWAP, therefore, is not an isolated event but part of a growing, interconnected regional insurgency that threatens stability across the Sahel and beyond.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇨🇦 Oil prices rise as OPEC+ holds output steady: Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Monday, driven by supply concerns after OPEC+ maintained its planned output increase and wildfires in Canada disrupted production. Brent crude closed up 2.95% at $64.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 2.85% to $62.52. Wildfires in Alberta impacted about 7% of Canada’s crude output, prompting evacuations and shutdowns at several oil sands sites. Meanwhile, a weaker U.S. dollar, linked to concerns over Trump’s new tariff threats, made oil cheaper for non-dollar buyers, adding further support. Geopolitical tensions also lifted prices following Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia. OPEC+ confirmed a 411,000 barrels-per-day increase for July, below market expectations. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley foresee gradual monthly output hikes continuing through October.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump and Musk’s rapport unravels in feud over economy: Elon Musk has called for Donald Trump’s impeachment, escalating a bitter feud that saw both men trade personal insults on social media. Tensions exploded after Trump threatened to cut federal subsidies for Musk’s companies, prompting Musk to accuse Trump of being named in unreleased Epstein files. Musk later backed calls for Trump’s removal and warned that Trump’s tariffs could trigger a recession. Their fallout follows disputes over a Republican spending bill Musk denounced as a “disgusting abomination.” Tesla shares plummeted nearly 15% amid the exchange, highlighting the deterioration of a once mutually beneficial relationship.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇵🇸 Israel strikes Beirut in another round of ceasefire violations, allegedly arms Gaza paramilitary wing: The IDF has launched strikes in Beirut’s Dahieh district, following warnings to residents in Hadath, Haret Hreik, and Borj el-Barajneh to evacuate immediately. Although Israel has conducted numerous strikes on South Lebanon and the Bekaa valley since the November 2024 ceasefire, the latest warnings hint at a broader operation. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed coordination with gangs in Gaza, which, as Crisis Group Mairav Zonszein highlights, amounts to the arming of an IDF Gaza paramilitary wing. In Gaza, four journalists were killed at Al-Ahli Hospital amid airstrikes that left 52 Palestinians dead today. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has resumed limited aid distribution after previous suspensions. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned the attacks, calling for urgent international action, while the UN urged restraint to prevent further regional escalation.

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