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📰 Trump prepares for Gulf visit

📰 Trump prepares for Gulf visit

and Macron requests Syria sanction relief

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 09, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In Africa today, Mali’s military junta has suspended all political party activities, while Libya’s rival administrations in Tripoli and Benghazi deny any deal with the U.S. to accept deported migrants. In Latin America, President Sheinbaum walks a tightrope—seeking to meet U.S. demands while defending Mexican sovereignty.

Today’s top story examines U.S. President Trump’s upcoming tour of the Middle East and the strategic stakes behind it.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Pakistan signals willingness to de-escalate: Following Indian missile strikes on Pakistani territory and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Islamabad has vowed to retaliate, claiming it downed five Indian aircraft. Yet amid the most serious flare-up in over two decades, both sides appear cautiously weighing their next moves. Pakistan’s defence and foreign ministers confirmed ongoing contact between national security advisors, with Islamabad expressing openness to U.S. mediation. While Pakistan reserves the right to respond if provoked again, officials stress that “restraint is still being applied.” Analysts suggest Islamabad’s ambiguous messaging may be deliberate—intended to maintain pressure without escalating. With both militaries on alert, miscalculation remains a risk, but diplomatic lines remain open.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇸🇾 🇪🇺 Macron meets al-Sharaa, calls for sanction relief: French President Emmanuel Macron has called on the U.S. and EU to lift sanctions on Syria, following a meeting in Paris with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa—his first trip to Europe since assuming power. Macron said it was in everyone's interest, including Washington’s, to ease restrictions and support Syria’s recovery, promising that France would work to allay allies’ concerns. Al-Sharaa, who came to power after ousting Bashar al-Assad, blamed remnants of the former regime for a recent surge in violence and announced investigation and reconciliation committees. While Brussels suspended some sanctions in February, a full review is due in June, and Macron pressed for continued support to normalise Syria’s reintegration into the international community.

3️⃣ 🇱🇾 🇺🇸 Libya’s rival governments in Tripoli, Benghazi deny agreement with U.S. for deportations: Libya’s two rival governments have denied claims of an agreement with the United States to receive deported migrants under President Trump’s immigration policy, amid reports flights could begin this week. Both the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity and the eastern House of Representatives rejected the Reuters report, asserting no coordination had taken place. The GNU warned of “parallel entities” acting without legal authority, while Haftar’s forces also denied any talks. U.S. officials have not confirmed whether a formal deal exists, and the plan faces diplomatic and legal challenges given Libya’s instability and poor human rights record.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇸 UN arms embargo on South Sudan faces uncertain renewal: The UN Security Council is set to vote later this month on whether to extend its arms embargo on South Sudan, as the country edges toward renewed civil war. Initially facing opposition, the embargo’s renewal now hangs in the balance following the outbreak of conflict in Nasir and growing instability nationwide. The embargo—first imposed in 2018 to curb heavy weapons imports—had slowed under diplomatic pressure, but U.S. backing for its continuation and Uganda’s reported violations by aiding Kiir’s forces have shifted momentum. With clashes spreading across multiple states and South Sudan’s economy crumbling amid oil pipeline failures, the risk of further arms proliferation looms large, and the Security Council’s decision may prove pivotal in shaping the next phase of South Sudan’s fragile peace.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Smotrich calls for 'entire' destruction of Gaza: Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has declared that Gaza will be “entirely destroyed” and its population displaced en masse to third countries, prompting fierce international condemnation and fears of ethnic cleansing. His remarks came as Israel’s security cabinet approved "Operation Gideon’s Chariots" — a plan for the full conquest and occupation of Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu said residents would be relocated “for their own protection,” while humanitarian officials and legal scholars warned that the rhetoric and intent may constitute crimes against humanity.

Major Story

🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇶🇦 🇺🇸 TRUMP’S UPCOMING MIDDLE EAST TOUR

President Donald Trump’s upcoming Middle East tour (May 13–16) is less a diplomatic courtesy and more a calculated effort to secure economic, political, and geopolitical leverage. Facing domestic inflation and needing to bolster his foreign policy credentials, Trump will seek Gulf investment, oil price concessions, and alignment on major global issues. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are central to this strategy—seen as platforms for U.S. power projection without the burdens of direct military entanglement.

Energy and Security Bargaining

Trump aims to pressure Riyadh on oil output, potentially trading military guarantees or arms deals for temporary price relief. At the same time, he is likely to demand distancing from China and greater cooperation on AI and high-tech trade—particularly with the UAE. In return, Gulf states will pursue security assurances, advanced weapons systems, and support for initiatives like a Syrian reconstruction policy shift and nuclear energy development.

Regional Flashpoints and Political Trade-offs

Trump may use Saudi ties to broker progress in Ukraine diplomacy or reinvigorate the Abraham Accords, though public opinion across the Arab world could limit traction. A proposed U.S. base on Tiran Island could escalate tensions with Egypt, potentially destabilizing a key regional alliance if mishandled. Meanwhile, Gulf leaders want restraint on Israeli military actions and de-escalation in Red Sea shipping routes to protect their coastal investments.

Redefining U.S.–Gulf Relations

This trip underscores a new model of U.S. engagement in the Gulf: transactional, short-term, and results-driven. But the Gulf states are no longer passive players—they will offer compliance only when it aligns with their own strategic calculus. Trump’s visit may not redefine the alliance, but it will solidify a shift toward pragmatic, interest-based relations amid a more contested global order.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇱 Mali’s junta suspends all political parties’ activities: Mali’s military-led government has suspended all political party and political association activities “until further notice,” citing public order concerns. The decree, signed by transitional president General Assimi Goita, follows a rare opposition protest in Bamako and the recent repeal of laws regulating political parties. Protest leaders condemned the move as an attempt to silence dissent and vowed to continue advocating for a return to civilian rule. Goita, who came to power in 2020 and 2021 coups, has faced growing pressure to end military rule and restore constitutional governance.

2️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Sheinbaum balances U.S. demands with Mexican sovereignty: In her first 100 days dealing with President Donald Trump, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has walked a tightrope. Under pressure from Trump to curb fentanyl flows and undocumented migration, Sheinbaum has deployed troops, extradited top criminals, and tightened border control—all while defending Mexico’s sovereignty. Her firm yet diplomatic stance has earned Trump’s praise and left her domestic approval near 82 percent. Still, growing signals from Washington hint at possible unilateral U.S. military action in Mexico, which could trigger a crisis in bilateral relations if carried out without Mexican consent.