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Belarusian President Lukashenko rules out seeking re-election and dismisses claims he is preparing his son as successor; ICC issues arrest warrant for Libyan commander over alleged war crimes; and Australia will recognise a Palestinian state at the UN next month.

Our lead story turns to Lebanon, where a U.S.-backed push to disarm Hizbollah is igniting debate over security guarantees and the future of state sovereignty.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 President Trump proposes Russia–Ukraine land swap as basis for peace talks: President Donald Trump said his plan to end the Russia–Ukraine war involves “land swapping,” with both Moscow and Kyiv making territorial concessions. He insisted Russia might have to return some occupied areas, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s refusal to trade land for peace. European diplomats have been taken aback by the lack of clarity on the US side about the territories Putin is demanding from Ukraine and the terms of a ceasefire. The discrepancies within the US reporting back on what Russia is seeking has alarmed European diplomats and only added to a fear that Trump, inflating his personal relationship with Putin, could make damaging concessions. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will host a virtual summit on Wednesday with Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders to explore pressure options on Russia, security guarantees for Ukraine, and the sequencing of talks.

2️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇦🇲 🇦🇿 Iran vows to block U.S.-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan transit corridor: Iran has vowed to block a planned transport corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave under a U.S.-brokered peace deal with Armenia, warning it threatens regional security. Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, called the project — the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — “political treachery” and a NATO gateway “between Iran and Russia.” The corridor, operating under Armenian law, was welcomed by Turkiye as a boost to regional trade, while Russia cautioned against “non-regional” interference. Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have fought multiple wars over Nagorno-Karabakh, appear close to a final peace accord after resolving all territorial disputes.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syrian minorities call for decentralised state and new pluralist constitution: At a conference in Hassakeh, 400 representatives of Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities urged the creation of a decentralised or federal system and a constitution safeguarding cultural, religious, and ethnic rights. The gathering — led by Alawite, Druze, Christian, and Kurdish figures — follows the December fall of President Bashar al-Assad and amid violence targeting minorities. Alawite leader Ghazal Ghazal condemned extremist ideology, while Druze cleric Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hijri hailed pluralism as a unifying strength. SDF officials, hosting the event, accused interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s government of perpetuating dictatorship and resisting democratic reform. Organisers stressed that decades of centralised rule have failed and that pluralism must anchor Syria’s political future, as the country moves toward September elections and a lengthy constitutional process.

4️⃣ 🇮🇳 Two Indian soldiers, militant killed in eight-day Kashmir gunbattle: Two Indian soldiers and a suspected militant have been killed in one of the longest ongoing clashes in Indian-controlled Kashmir’s recent history. The firefight began on 1 August when troops, acting on intelligence, cordoned off the Akhal forest in southern Kulgam district. An initial exchange left one militant dead and seven soldiers wounded, but intermittent combat has continued for over a week, with helicopters and drones deployed against an unknown number of insurgents. Fighting flared again late Friday. Unrest has simmered since New Delhi ended the region’s semi-autonomy in 2019 and drastically curbed dissent, civil liberties and media freedoms while intensifying counterinsurgency operations.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump delays China tariff hike for 90 days as trade talks continue: President Donald Trump has granted a 90-day extension on sweeping tariffs against China, postponing their implementation until 9 November. The move, announced just hours before the previous agreement’s expiry, follows recent trade talks in Stockholm and signals cautious optimism from both sides. Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 245% if no deal is reached, while China has warned of retaliatory duties of 125%. Currently, most US exports to China face tariffs of around 30%, while Chinese imports to the US carry a baseline 10% tariff plus a 20% levy tied to fentanyl smuggling claims. Economists warn such measures will drive up US prices, with Goldman Sachs projecting consumers could bear two-thirds of the costs. The delay aims to avert escalation while negotiations continue.

Major Story

🇱🇧 🇺🇳 LEBANON’S DISARMAMENT DRIVE TESTS HIZBOLLAH AND STATE SOVEREIGNTY

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s cabinet has approved its most assertive measure yet to restore Lebanon’s monopoly over armed force, directing the Lebanese Army to prepare a plan to disarm all non-state actors by year’s end. The move—hailed by U.S. envoy Tom Barrack as a “historic” step towards sovereignty—directly challenges Hizbollah’s entrenched military autonomy. The Iran-allied group, armed with a formidable arsenal and deep political influence, views the decision as an existential threat. Without binding guarantees for the security of south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, areas that have seen thousands of Israeli ceasefire violations, it argues that accepting the U.S. plan would amount to capitulating to Israeli interests.

Domestic Fallout and Street Tensions

Citing the absence of robust security guarantees, Shia ministers walked out of cabinet sessions in protest, and Hizbollah leaders escalated their rhetoric, warning the decision could undermine “civil peace.” While Hizbollah’s ally, the Amal Movement, has sought to curb provocative street actions, sporadic protests in Beirut and southern suburbs have underscored the risk of unrest spiralling beyond political control. The standoff revives the unresolved issue from the 1989 Taif Agreement, which ended Lebanon’s civil war but left Hizbollah’s weapons untouched. 

Competing Visions and External Leverage

A resounding chorus of analysts, including those not aligned with Hizbollah, denounce the decision as externally driven and question the army’s ability to enforce it, citing unresolved territorial dilemmas such as the Israel-occupied Shebaa Farms. In contrast, Christian nationalist polities such as Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces see a rare opportunity: a U.S.-backed roadmap linking disarmament to Israeli withdrawal, border demarcation, security guarantees, and economic assistance.

Strategic Stakes and Army’s Role

Strategists emphasise that the Lebanese Army, though unlikely to engage Hizbollah directly, now benefits from favourable political arithmetic and growing foreign backing. The looming renewal of the UNIFIL peacekeeping mandate—which, incidentally, has failed to curtail Israeli ceasefire compliance—could expand its resources and remit. Some advocates say the army’s track record in confronting extremist groups in Nahr al-Bared (2007) and Arsal (2017) proves its operational competence if given the mandate and support.

A Defining Moment

For Hizbollah, outright rejection of the plan risks branding it as an armed faction outside the constitution; for the state, failure to act could entrench the status quo and invite further Israeli pressure. Yet should Hizbollah comply, Israel’s strategic footprint in South Lebanon may become established as faits accomplis. Shia ministers warn that concessions before Israeli compliance on the November 2024 ceasefire will erode Lebanon’s sovereignty. The coming months will test whether Lebanon can transition from fragmented authority to unified state control, or relapse into the cycles of confrontation that have defined its post-war history.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇾 President Lukashenko says he will not seek re-election and denies preparing son as successor: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in a TIME magazine interview that he does not plan to run for another term, dismissing speculation he is preparing his son Nikolai to succeed him. In power for over 30 years and re-elected in January for a seventh term, Lukashenko urged any future leader to maintain stability and avoid “revolutionary breakdown.” The 70-year-old, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, has faced sustained criticism for his crackdown on mass protests after the disputed 2020 election, which Western governments deemed fraudulent. Since mid-2024, several hundred detainees convicted of “extremism” have been freed in what analysts view as an effort to ease Western isolation, though rights groups say around 1,200 political prisoners remain—a label Lukashenko rejects.

2️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇳🇿 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Australia to recognise Palestinian state at UN in September: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that Australia will formally recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September, reversing his stance from two weeks ago. He said the move is part of a coordinated global push for a two-state solution, conditional on Palestinian Authority commitments: no role for Hamas in government, Gaza’s demilitarisation, democratic elections, recognition of Israel, reforms under international oversight, and ending stipends to prisoners and families of those killed in Israeli attacks. Albanese accused Israel of defying international law and described Gaza’s situation as catastrophic. The decision, backed by discussions with key allies, drew praise from pro-recognition states but fierce condemnation from Israeli officials, who warned it undermines security. Around 145 UN member states already recognise Palestinian statehood. New Zealand has indicated it may follow suit.

3️⃣ 🇱🇾 ICC reveals arrest warrant for Libyan commander accused of war crimes: The International Criminal Court has unsealed a 2020 arrest warrant for Saif Suleiman Sneidel, accused of war crimes including murder, torture, and “outrages upon personal dignity” in Benghazi and nearby areas between June 2016 and July 2017. Prosecutors say Sneidel, a senior figure in Group 50 of the Al-Saiqa Brigade, participated in three executions that killed 23 people, acting alongside his late commander Mahmoud Al-Werfalli, himself wanted by the ICC before his death. The warrant had been sealed to protect the investigation but was made public to boost arrest prospects and engage international cooperation. The ICC has pursued Libya war crimes cases since the UN Security Council’s 2011 referral.

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