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📰 Trump reshapes US diplomacy

📰 Trump reshapes US diplomacy

and Horn of Africa tensions rise

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 13, 2024

Hello and welcome back,

Today’s stories spotlight key Middle Eastern and African developments. Israeli airstrikes have pounded Beirut’s southern suburbs in one of the heaviest daytime assaults so far, while humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza have plummeted to levels not seen since December—despite the expiration of a U.S. ultimatum demanding increased aid.

In the Sahel, fierce clashes between Boko Haram and Chadian forces have erupted, while in the Horn of Africa, the breakaway state of Somaliland heads to the polls in an election with significant geopolitical stakes.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 European Commission Vice-President condemns North Gaza “ethnic cleansing”, Smotrich announces West Bank annexation plan: EU High Representative Josep Borrell has condemned Israel's recent airstrike on Gaza's Jabalia, which left many civilians dead. Borrell’s statement raised concerns over what he described as "ethnic cleansing" in northern Gaza, citing forced displacements and the use of hunger as a weapon—both of which breach international law. The UN's IPC alert has also warned of imminent famine without immediate aid access. As the occupying power, Israel is urged to facilitate humanitarian aid, while the international community and Israel’s allies are called on to act swiftly to end Palestinian suffering and secure the release of hostages. Meanwhile, Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has initiated plans to annex the West Bank, seeking U.S. recognition under President-elect Donald Trump. Smotrich, who also oversees the Defence Ministry’s administration of the West Bank, has declared 2025 as "the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria."

2️⃣ 🇸🇴 Somaliland goes to the polls amid rising Horn of Africa tensions: Somaliland—a self-declared independent region in Somalia—is holding a presidential election today, after the 2022 election was delayed. Although it remains unrecognised internationally and is legally part of Somalia, Somaliland declared its independence in 1991. “The elections are on track,” said Mohamed Warsame Dualeh, former presidential advisor and member of the Somaliland People's Party, adding that the National Election Commission has done “exceptional” work and the public is ready to vote peacefully. Mubarak Abdulahi Daljir, a vice president at Admas University in Hargeisa, noted the election will end two years of political instability and bolster Somaliland’s international image. Tensions in the Horn of Africa have escalated since Somaliland signed a January MoU with Ethiopia to build a naval base and enhance trade at Somaliland's Berbera port. Somalia condemned the deal, expelling Ethiopia's ambassador in April, while in August, it entered a security pact with Egypt, receiving new arms support from Cairo.

3️⃣ 🇹🇩 Boko Haram clash with Chadian military leaves over 100 dead: Boko Haram insurgents killed 17 Chadian soldiers in a weekend attack on a military post in western Chad, according to a statement from Chad’s army. The clash, which occurred in the Lake Chad region, also left 96 militants dead, said army spokesperson Gen. Issakh Acheikh on national television, though he withheld further details. This area—increasingly targeted by Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa—has seen a rise in attacks following a lull after Chad’s 2020 military campaign to destroy insurgent strongholds. Last month, a Boko Haram assault claimed the lives of 40 soldiers, prompting President Mahamat Deby Itno to intensify efforts to remove militants from Lake Chad. Chad, with a population of nearly 18 million, has been struggling with political instability, particularly after Deby Itno’s election following his father’s death in 2021.

4️⃣ 🇮🇳 Militants clash with security forces in India’s Manipur: In India’s northeastern Manipur state, ten armed militants were killed in a gunfight with security forces after attempting to assault a police station, according to local officials. The state has been gripped by ethnic violence since May 2023, following a court decision that considered extending special economic benefits and quotas to the majority Meitei community, benefits previously granted only to the tribal Kuki population. Since the conflict began, Manipur’s population of 3.2 million has been effectively divided: the Meiteis control the valley, while the Kukis hold the surrounding hills, separated by a monitored no-man’s land patrolled by federal forces. The unrest has led to over 250 deaths and displaced around 60,000 people. Police reported that Monday’s clash lasted about 45 minutes and was swiftly contained.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸🇮🇱Trump elects Huckabee as ambassador to Israel, Ratcliffe as CIA director: Donald Trump has appointed former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as the new U.S. ambassador to Israel. Known for his strong pro-Israel stance, Huckabee has previously supported Israel’s claim to the West Bank, referring to it by the biblical names Judea and Samaria. This territory, desired by Palestinians for a future state, is marked by Israeli settlements which exist in violation of international law. Huckabee avoids calling them “settlements,” preferring “communities” or “neighbourhoods,” and denies the West Bank is under military occupation since Israel took it from Jordan in 1967. On his Truth Social platform, Trump praised Huckabee’s commitment to Middle East peace, calling him “a great public servant.” Trump also named John Ratcliffe, a former director of national intelligence, as his choice for CIA director.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇺🇸 U.S. ULTIMATUM TO ISRAEL FAILS TO ENSURE ARRIVAL OF HUMANITARIAN AID 🇵🇸 🇮🇱

Background

Humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza have drastically declined, reaching lows unseen since December. Despite a US ultimatum for increased aid, Israel allowed only an average of 57 trucks per day in October—far below the 350-truck minimum requested by the US and the 600-truck level aid agencies deem necessary. Recently, only 8,805 tonnes of food crossed Israeli checkpoints, with distribution hurdles causing critical shortages.

Security Council Addresses Food Crisis Amid Ongoing Offensive

In response to an alarming famine warning from the Famine Review Committee (FRC) for northern Gaza, the UN Security Council convenes under the “Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict” agenda. Humanitarian and rights officials, including Joyce Msuya from the UN and a Food and Agriculture Organization representative, are expected to brief on the escalating risks. The situation has become especially dire in Jabalia and surrounding areas under prolonged siege since Israel’s 5 October military offensive, which has devastated the region and disrupted aid.

Mounting Humanitarian and Security Concerns

The UN and aid organisations report that restrictions, shortages, and insecurity prevent essential aid deliveries, with Israeli officials often blocking access for humanitarian convoys. UN personnel describe an “apocalyptic” landscape where displacement affects over 80% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, food and medical supplies are critically scarce, and inflation pushes basic goods out of reach. Adding to the crisis, looting by criminal groups exacerbates the aid shortage.

Calls for Immediate Action and Ceasefire

UN officials will likely urge the Security Council to facilitate open humanitarian corridors and an immediate ceasefire. However, efforts toward truce remain stalled as US-brokered talks face deadlock. Meanwhile, the deteriorating humanitarian conditions compel renewed calls for accountability and adherence to international humanitarian law, as the region faces a crisis on multiple fronts.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇴 🇮🇱 U.S. financed Colombia’s 2020 purchase of Israeli Pegasus spyware: In 2020, the United States funded the purchase of Israeli spyware Pegasus for Colombia's security forces, without informing then-President Ivan Duque, a senior US official has revealed. The software, which can remotely access phone data, including calls, messages, and files, was reportedly used to track drug traffickers. However, the US official emphasised that there was no evidence it was used to spy on politicians, and Washington had implemented strict protocols to ensure it was used only for that purpose. Following the revelation, Colombian President Gustavo Petro condemned the acquisition, warning it could be used for political surveillance. The US ended the program in 2021, before Petro assumed office, and did not inform him of its existence.

2️⃣ 🇲🇺 Opposition wins Mauritius elections: Pravind Jugnauth, Mauritius's prime minister since 2017, has acknowledged his coalition's likely defeat in the recent parliamentary election. "The Alliance Lepep is heading for a significant loss. I have done my best for the country, but the people have chosen a different path. I wish the country well," Jugnauth told reporters on Monday. Though final results are pending, opposition leader Navin Ramgoolam appears set to assume the prime minister's role for a third term, leading his Alliance of Change coalition. On Sunday, voters cast ballots to fill 62 parliamentary seats for a five-year term, choosing from 68 parties and five alliances. The coalition winning a majority secures the prime ministership. Just last month, Jugnauth, 62, celebrated a historic agreement with the UK, reclaiming Mauritius's sovereignty over the Chagos Islands.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Israel and Hizbollah exchange strikes: Israeli airstrikes targeted Beirut's southern suburbs in one of the heaviest daytime attacks to date, with strikes also hitting central Lebanon and leaving over 20 civilians dead, according to Lebanese health authorities. In northern Israel, two residents were killed in Nahariya following Hizbollah's drone attack on a nearby military site. Additional strikes killed civilians in Baalchmay, Joun, Tefahta, Nabatieh, Tyre, and Hermel. Since the conflict began last year, Lebanese health officials report at least 3,287 civilian deaths, with most occurring in the past seven weeks.