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📰 Trump's 'Golden Dome' threatens global arms race

📰 Trump's 'Golden Dome' threatens global arms race

and UK nears Gulf trade deal

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 30, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, the UK edges closer to finalising a trade deal with Gulf states despite mounting criticism over human rights omissions, while Mauritania’s Sidi Ould Tah is elected president of the African Development Bank amid looming funding concerns. In Mexico, cartel-planted IEDs kill eight soldiers, marking a sharp escalation in Michoacán’s mine warfare.

Our lead story examines Poland’s pivotal presidential runoff and what it means for the future of democratic reform.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ risks reigniting arms race, strains global security architecture: President Trump’s newly announced $175 billion “Golden Dome” missile defence proposal aims to shield the U.S. from hypersonic and space-based threats through a vast orbital system of interceptors and sensors. Inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome and Reagan’s defunct Star Wars initiative, the plan envisions hundreds of satellites with lasers and advanced tracking. Yet experts warn the technology remains unproven and prohibitively expensive, with Congressional estimates topping $500 billion. Critics argue the system could destabilise nuclear deterrence by appearing to seek U.S. invulnerability, spurring rivals like China and Russia to expand their arsenals or deploy countermeasures in space. Rather than risk escalation, analysts urge Washington to leverage the initiative as a diplomatic catalyst—reviving stalled arms control talks and establishing space security norms to reduce the risk of miscalculation and military confrontation in orbit.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇱🇹 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Germany asserts military independence, Trump signals softer stance on Russia: Two statements this week underscore growing divergence in transatlantic defence priorities. On May 27, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed on social media that “lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia” without his intervention—an unusual remark that some read as shielding Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces war crimes charges. The next day, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced plans to help Ukraine develop long-range missiles for use against targets inside Russia. This marks a striking shift: as Trump retreats from traditional commitments, Berlin is assuming a more assertive defence role. Germany now aims to build Europe’s strongest conventional military, with plans to deploy a brigade to Lithuania, expand defence procurement, and possibly reintroduce conscription. European security, once underwritten by Washington, now hinges on whether the EU can act decisively—and independently.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇯🇴 Israel announces plans for 22 new settlements in the occupied West Bank: Israel’s approval of 22 new settlements in the occupied West Bank has drawn sharp condemnation from Palestine and Jordan, both denouncing it as a breach of international law. The Palestinian Authority warned the move would deepen instability and derail efforts toward a two-state solution, while Jordan called it “null and void,” citing Israel’s lack of sovereignty over Palestinian land. Israel’s Defence Ministry justified the expansion as a strategy to prevent Palestinian statehood. The decision comes despite a July 2024 International Court of Justice ruling declaring Israel’s occupation illegal and ordering the dismantlement of settlements, now widely seen as the greatest barrier to a negotiated resolution.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 U.S. court blocks liberation day tariffs, warns of executive overreach: A U.S. trade court has blocked President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports, ruling he overstepped his constitutional authority by bypassing Congress. The Court of International Trade found that the Constitution gives Congress—not the president—exclusive power over trade, which Trump’s actions under emergency powers violated. The ruling, which applies broadly beyond just the plaintiffs, halts tariffs introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and could unravel key aspects of Trump’s global trade strategy. The White House quickly appealed, arguing trade imbalances constituted a national emergency. Judges appointed by Trump, Obama, and Reagan issued the unanimous decision. Critics say the tariffs hurt small businesses and failed to improve US trade balances, while analysts warn the decision injects uncertainty into talks with China and the EU. The Supreme Court may ultimately decide the issue.

5️⃣ 🇲🇷 Sidi Ould Tah elected new African Development Bank president as funding challenges loom: Mauritanian economist Sidi Ould Tah has been elected president of the African Development Bank (AfDB), securing 76% of the vote after three rounds in Abidjan. Tah, formerly head of the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, defeated World Bank vice-president Samuel Maimbo to succeed Akinwunmi Adesina, who steps down in September after two terms. Tah will lead the 60-year-old institution at a time of shifting global priorities and tightening finances, as the Trump administration plans to slash U.S. contributions by ~$555 million. With donor replenishments for the African Development Fund due in November, Tah has pledged to expand cooperation with Gulf partners to bolster infrastructure investment across the continent. The AfDB, co-owned by 54 African countries and global powers, currently manages ~$318 billion in capital.

Major Story

🇵🇱 🇪🇺 POLAND’S PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF WILL SHAPE THE FATE OF ITS DEMOCRACY

Though largely ceremonial, Poland’s presidency holds potent veto powers that can paralyse legislation unless overturned by a supermajority. Since 2020, President Andrzej Duda has wielded this authority to obstruct Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda. Key bills—ranging from judicial independence to access to emergency contraception—have been either vetoed outright or delayed via referral to a Constitutional Tribunal dominated by former PiS loyalists. In this context, Law and Justice (PiS) represents the right-wing populist bloc, while Civic Platform (PO) leads the centrist-liberal coalition aiming to reverse PiS-era democratic backsliding.

A High-Stakes Contest

The June 1 runoff between Civic Platform’s Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, a PiS-affiliated populist, will determine whether Tusk’s centrist coalition can undo PiS’s legacy. That legacy includes politicising the judiciary, undermining democratic institutions, and turning public media into a party organ. While Trzaskowski leads narrowly after the first round, Nawrocki has gained ground by projecting toughness—despite scandals over asset declarations and a controversial meeting with Donald Trump.

Democracy on the Line

This election won’t dramatically alter foreign policy, but its symbolic weight is enormous. PiS’s erosion of democratic norms has left the system fragile. Without a cooperative president, the Tusk government will struggle to enact democratic restoration. And in a polarised landscape dominated by PO and PiS since 2005, presidential assent remains vital. The future of Polish democracy may well hinge on a figurehead president—and the margins of this vote.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇶🇦 UK-Gulf trade deal nears completion amid human rights backlash: The UK is close to finalising a £1.6bn trade deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council, potentially boosting annual trade by £8.6bn by 2035. While the agreement promises benefits for sectors like finance and automotive, rights groups have raised alarms over its lack of binding commitments on human rights, labour protections, and environmental standards. Critics warn it sidesteps transparency, bypasses parliamentary scrutiny, and risks undercutting British farmers via lower-welfare imports. Trade unions and advocacy groups argue the deal prioritises corporate access over ethical values. Ministers defend the talks as economically strategic, but polling suggests minimal public support. With the Trump administration slashing AfDB contributions and growing scrutiny over migrant exploitation in Gulf states, opponents insist future trade must be grounded in enforceable standards—not “warm words” without accountability. Final signoff is expected after Eid al-Adha.

2️⃣ 🇲🇽 Cartel IEDs kill eight Mexican soldiers as mine warfare escalates in Michoacán: Eight Mexican soldiers were killed after their armoured vehicle struck an improvised explosive device (IED) in Michoacán, highlighting the increasing use of landmines by cartels. The deadly blast occurred in Los Reyes, near the Jalisco border—an area embroiled in turf wars between the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel and local groups. Authorities say the region has become saturated with explosives, often planted by ex-military bomb experts allegedly recruited from Colombia. Over 600 IEDs have already been found and destroyed in recent months, with this incident marking the deadliest military loss from such devices to date. Civilians, including farmers and teachers, have also been killed. As IEDs and drone-borne bombs proliferate, some communities have been forcibly displaced, adding to the region’s deepening humanitarian toll.