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📰 Trump’s Iran pivot

📰 Trump’s Iran pivot

and UK revisits EU ties

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 29, 2025

Hello,

Conflict has escalated in North Darfur, with airstrikes targeting a hospital in El-Fasher, killing dozens amid the ongoing siege of the city. Meanwhile, the Islamic State’s Somalia Province has suffered major setbacks, reportedly being “significantly degraded” after intense clashes with security forces in Puntland.

Syria has returned to the spotlight, grappling with the challenges of a potential federal political settlement. Meanwhile, neighboring Iraq is contending with Syria’s shifting political dynamics, ongoing threats from the Islamic State, the risk of regional fragmentation, and the growing influence of Iran-aligned militias at home.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Witkoff to take over Iran file, anonymous source tells FT: President Donald Trump is set to appoint Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to lead diplomatic efforts with Iran, according to anonymous reports. Unlike his previous "maximum pressure" strategy, which led to sanctions and heightened tensions, Trump now plans to pursue diplomacy with Tehran first. This shift comes after his 2018 decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which saw Iran accept restrictions on its nuclear program. Witkoff, who has been involved in recent negotiations in the Middle East, will explore potential diplomatic breakthroughs while avoiding military conflict. However, some of Trump’s team, including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Senator Marco Rubio, remain in favor of a harder line approach, expressing concerns over Witkoff's stance.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanese civilians massacred by IDF after Israel contravene ceasefire’s withdrawal terms: On Sunday, Israeli forces killed at least 22 people, including a Lebanese soldier, during an assault on southern Lebanon. The violence erupted as civilians attempted to return to their homes after Israel missed a deadline to withdraw, as agreed in a ceasefire deal. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reports that over 80 others were injured, while some civilians were detained by Israeli forces. Despite these actions, there are signs of Israeli withdrawal in areas like Ait al-Shaab, where Lebanese residents returned under army protection. The situation remains tense, with concerns about continued violence, as Israel delays its full withdrawal, accusing Lebanon of failing to meet the ceasefire terms. Lebanese President Aoun has urged citizens to trust the army's efforts to safeguard their return.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 UK poised to accede to Pan-Euro Mediterranean Customs Convention: The UK’s potential inclusion in the PEM Convention is being reconsidered as part of efforts to improve post-Brexit trade ties with the EU. PEM harmonizes trade rules across Europe, North Africa, and the Mediterranean, benefiting sectors reliant on complex supply chains. While UK government officials remain cautious about deeper EU integration, the proposal presents a pragmatic solution to reduce barriers, cut costs, and streamline trade. Despite limited overall economic impact, PEM could help industries like automotive manufacturing and food production by easing tariff complications, offering a small but meaningful step toward rebuilding EU-UK relations. The UK is continuing consultations, weighing the potential advantages while avoiding major political pitfalls.

4️⃣ 🇸🇴 IS-Somalia Province ‘significantly degraded’ after clashes with security forces in Puntland: Somali security forces in Puntland have made gains against the Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS) through a counterinsurgency offensive but have not established lasting measures to defeat the group. The Puntland Security Forces (PSF) reported destroying ISS outposts, weapons facilities, and supply caches in the Cal Miskaad mountains, while also seizing armed drones and holding meetings with local leaders to secure community support. However, ISS remains capable of regrouping due to its ability to exploit rugged terrain and generate significant revenue through racketeering in Bosaso, Puntland's port capital. Unless the offensive disrupts these funding streams and sustains pressure on ISS support zones, the group will likely reconstitute and continue its operations.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 Dozens killed in strike on hospital as North Darfur’s El-Fasher siege rages on: A drone strike on the Saudi Hospital in El-Fasher, Sudan, has killed at least 67 people and injured many others. Since April 2023, Sudan has been embroiled in a conflict between the army and the paramilitary RSF, with heavy fighting in Darfur. The RSF has seized much of the region and laid siege to El-Fasher, despite being pushed back by army-aligned militias. The RSF's push to strengthen its grip on Darfur comes as the Sudanese army claims victories elsewhere, including reclaiming the Jaili oil refinery and breaking the RSF's siege on its Khartoum headquarters. Both sides have been accused of war crimes, including targeting civilians and indiscriminately shelling residential areas since the conflict began in April 2023.

Major Story

🇮🇶 🇸🇾 IRAQ’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE HOUSE OF ASSAD

The seismic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves across the region, with Iraq closely monitoring Damascus’ transition under Ahmed Sharaa’s formerly al-Qaeda aligned Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), according to Dr. John Calabrese. Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, is navigating a complex geopolitical landscape marked by threats from Islamic State, regional fragmentation, and the need to secure Iraq’s internal stability.

The Threat of Islamic State and Regional Instability

The immediate concern for Iraq lies in the porous 600-kilometer border it shares with Syria, which has historically served as a conduit for ISIS militants. With Syria in a state of political uncertainty following Assad’s downfall, ISIS is poised to exploit the situation and potentially re-establish its presence in the region. Iraq’s vulnerability is compounded by the enduring risk of jihadist activity, as seen during ISIS’s rise in the Syrian civil war. The post-Assad vacuum further fuels fears of escalating extremist threats, including the potential for radicalization in ISIS-controlled camps in northern Syria.

A Cautious and Coordinated Approach

Al-Sudani has taken a careful, non-interventionist stance while prioritizing Iraq’s security. His administration has refrained from military involvement in Syria but has focused on fortifying border security. This includes the closure of border crossings and the deployment of thousands of paramilitary forces along Iraq’s western frontier. Additionally, Sudani has engaged regional leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to foster regional cooperation on security matters. His meetings with U.S. officials underscore the importance of countering ISIS and managing Iraq’s border with Syria.

Internal Political Dynamics and Shifting Alliances

Iraq’s domestic politics remain fragmented, with tensions between Shia factions over the country’s stance on Syria. Sudani’s challenge is to maintain internal unity while navigating external pressures, including Iran-backed militias and competing regional interests. The fate of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), which played a pivotal role in the fight against ISIS, remains contentious, as Sudani balances the demands of his political allies and external actors.

Paths Forward

As the geopolitical landscape in Syria continues to evolve, Iraq finds itself at a critical juncture. Prime Minister Sudani’s strategic responses—fortifying borders, engaging regional actors, and managing internal political challenges—will be crucial in safeguarding Iraq’s stability and its role in the broader Middle Eastern order.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syria’s federalism question: Conventional wisdom posits that federalism is a threat to Syria’s unity, evoking fears of fragmentation and foreign manipulation, particularly in regions controlled by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. Critics argue that it could lead to greater autonomy and tension with the rest of the state. However, this view overlooks the potential benefits of decentralization, especially in addressing Syria’s complex social and governance challenges. A non-sectarian, decentralized federation with a strong central government could balance local power, reduce sectarian tensions, and incentivize policy innovation. According to the New Arab, this system would allow regions to tailor policies to local needs, promote accountability, and foster competition for resources, ultimately offering greater efficacy of governance for Syria’s diverse communities.

2️⃣ 🇦🇫 ICC pursues arrest warrants for senior Taliban figures: The International Criminal Court has taken a groundbreaking step by seeking arrest warrants for Taliban leaders Haibatullah Akhundzada and Abdul Hakim Haqqani, accusing them of crimes against humanity for their systematic persecution of women and girls. This marks the first time the ICC has built a case centered on gender-based persecution, a move hailed by Afghan activists as a long-overdue stand against impunity. Since reclaiming power in 2021, the Taliban has issued over 80 decrees severely restricting women’s rights, barring them from work, education, and public spaces, while imposing oppressive practices such as banning windows in rooms used by women. While activists celebrate this as a milestone, they urge the ICC to address decades of war crimes and deliver full justice for all Afghan victims.