Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Trump’s NATO demand rejected

📰 Trump’s NATO demand rejected

and Russia gains in Ukraine

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 05, 2025

Hello,

The Trump administration dominates today’s headlines, with Trump threatening 100% tariffs on BRICS nations, Rubio meeting with Panama to curb Chinese influence, and global stock markets plunging in response to new U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s junta prepares for national elections.

Our top story examines the shifting European security landscape following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—now set against the backdrop of Trump’s presidency.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Hundreds killed in Goma as M23 move toward Bukavu: At least 773 people have been killed and nearly 2,880 injured in Goma and its surrounding areas as Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seized control of the eastern Congolese city, marking a sharp escalation in the conflict, according to government officials. The rebel advance has left behind mass graves, forced conscriptions, and summary executions. The fall of Goma has crippled humanitarian operations, cutting off aid to millions displaced by the conflict, and raising fears of further displacement as the rebels push toward Bukavu. With M23 forces now just 60 km from South Kivu’s capital, their rapid gains pose a growing threat to stability, while the Congolese army, weakened by heavy losses and defections, struggles to mount a defence.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 Global stock markets plummet after the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs: Asian markets tumbled following Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs, with Taiwan’s Taiex dropping 4.4%, led by a sharp decline in TSMC, while Japan’s Topix and Korea’s Kospi fell over 2%. Australia’s ASX 200 lost more than 2%, retreating from record highs, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.9%. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico—excluding Canadian energy, which faces a 10% tariff—alongside a 10% levy on China, citing concerns over immigration and illicit drugs. Canada and Mexico have vowed retaliatory tariffs, while China plans to challenge the move at the WTO, warning it violates global trade rules. Analysts fear this escalation could trigger a global trade war, weaken corporate earnings, and drive inflation higher, with ING strategists warning that “escalating tensions benefit no one.”

3️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇯🇴 🇵🇸 Arab foreign ministers issue joint statement condemning Trump’s Gaza mass displacement proposals: Foreign ministers from five Arab nations have issued a joint statement condemning any attempts to forcibly displace Palestinians from their land. Officials from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, the Palestinian Authority, and the Arab League warned that such a move would destabilise the region and undermine peace efforts. Their response follows Donald Trump’s call for Egypt and Jordan to absorb Palestinians from Gaza, a proposal both nations have firmly rejected. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi also dismissed the idea, stating that Egyptians would oppose any forced displacement of Palestinians.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇩🇪 Trump’s 5% defence spending target unrealistic, says Germany: German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has rejected Donald Trump’s demand for NATO allies to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, calling it both unrealistic and unnecessary. In an interview with Tagesspiegel, he argued that such an increase would be unmanageable, noting that 5% of Germany’s GDP would amount to nearly €230 billion—equivalent to 42% of the federal budget. “That would mean spending almost every second euro of government funds on defence,” he said. Pistorius emphasised that such a shift would be neither feasible nor justifiable.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇴 U.S. administers airstrikes on Islamic State–held territory in Somalia: The U.S. military has launched airstrikes against IS operatives in Somalia, marking the first such action of Donald Trump’s second term. The strikes targeted IS-Somalia fighters in the Golis Mountains, located in Puntland, a semi-autonomous region in northern Somalia. IS-Somalia emerged in 2015 as a splinter group from al-Shabaab, the larger al-Qaeda-affiliated insurgency controlling parts of southern Somalia. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that multiple IS operatives were killed, with no civilian casualties reported.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 UKRAINE’S GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS: THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPE OF EUROPEAN SECURITY

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shattered long-standing assumptions about European security, leaving Ukraine’s sovereignty and the continent’s stability in flux. As of early 2025, Moscow is making slow but steady territorial gains, while Kyiv struggles with troop shortages and uncertainty over continued Western support. NATO and EU members remain committed to deterring Russian aggression, yet divisions persist—particularly as Donald Trump’s return to the White House raises questions about U.S. priorities. International Crisis Group posits a durable resolution, which would require Ukraine to maintain sovereignty, Russia to weigh the costs of renewed aggression, and Europe to strengthen its defence capabilities.

Russia’s Strategic Ambitions and Western Response

The Kremlin sees Ukraine as a necessary front in its broader struggle against Western influence, while NATO members, once divided, now largely view Russia as a persistent threat. If Moscow secures its objectives in Ukraine, concerns grow that it could extend its ambitions to Moldova or even NATO territory. With nuclear powers on both sides, each escalation risks severe consequences. The challenge lies in balancing deterrence with diplomacy to prevent a broader confrontation while reinforcing European security.

Diplomatic Challenges and Potential Openings

Negotiating an end to the war remains complex, particularly given Trump’s transactional approach to alliances and apparent affinity for Vladimir Putin. However, reports suggest Trump’s team may pursue a settlement within six months, creating a narrow window for diplomacy. Leveraging U.S. influence—through economic pressure, security assurances, and coordination with European allies—could push Moscow toward a compromise. The most realistic outcome may see Ukraine politically independent but ceding occupied territories de facto to Russia.

Europe’s Defence Imperative

Regardless of Ukraine’s fate, Europe must bolster its military capabilities to counter long-term Russian threats. Trump’s preference for shifting U.S. focus toward the Indo-Pacific underscores the need for NATO allies to take greater responsibility for their security. Yet, as military buildups escalate on both sides, the risk of miscalculation grows. While deterrence remains essential, diplomatic frameworks to manage tensions and avoid unchecked militarisation are equally critical. Stability in Europe will depend on finding a balance between military preparedness and risk reduction—an outcome that requires careful coordination among Western powers and, ultimately, a recalibration of relations with Moscow.

Promotion

Unlock exclusive insights with our premium weekly newsletter.
Discover stories that flew under the radar.
Explore next week’s geopolitical milestones.
Weekly updates on the world’s most critical regions.
Help us take Horizon Geopolitics to the next level! Support the channel and fuel the creation of even better, high-quality content.

Subscribe to Our Premium Newsletter

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar’s junta prepares for national elections: Myanmar’s military is pressing ahead with plans for a national election, framing it as a return to democratic norms. However, opposition groups argue it is merely an attempt to legitimise the junta, which seized power in a 2021 coup. Resistance forces, including the National Unity Government and ethnic armed groups, reject the vote as neither free nor fair, pointing to the military’s failure to control large parts of the country. With the army suffering unprecedented territorial and personnel losses since late 2023, critics see the election as a desperate bid to cling to power rather than a genuine democratic transition. Despite extending emergency rule, the junta faces mounting instability, making its ability to hold a credible vote highly questionable.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇳 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Trump threatens 100% tariffs on BRICS states: Donald Trump has warned that countries perceived as hostile must pledge not to create or support a BRICS currency to challenge the U.S. dollar—or face 100% tariffs. His statement, nearly identical to one posted on November 30, comes ahead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s proposed U.S. visit. However, sources familiar with BRICS discussions confirm there is no active plan for a single currency; instead, members are prioritising bilateral trade in their national currencies. While Russia and China already conduct trade in local currencies, and India has established similar agreements with multiple nations, even these transactions often remain pegged to the dollar.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇵🇦 Rubio meets with Panama president Mulino, looks to taper Chinese influence: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino as protests erupted over Donald Trump’s demand for U.S. control of the Panama Canal. Rubio conveyed Trump’s stance that China’s influence posed a threat, warning that without immediate changes, the U.S. would act. Mulino firmly rejected any discussion of sovereignty but proposed expanding a migration deal with the U.S. to facilitate deportations if Washington covered the costs. Additionally, he pledged not to renew Panama’s Belt and Road Initiative with China and encouraged U.S. investment. Rubio, on a regional tour to strengthen U.S. influence, took a more diplomatic tone than Trump’s recent trade moves, meeting Panama’s foreign minister and planning visits to an energy facility and the canal.