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📰 Trump’s second term begins

📰 Trump’s second term begins

and Taiwan braces for crisis

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 20, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Tensions in the Middle East see a welcome de-escalation as an armistice is brokered between the Palestinian Authority and Jenin-based armed groups, while Israel and Hamas exchange hostages. In North America, Chrystia Freeland is positioning herself to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister, while the United States prepares for President Trump’s inauguration.

Today's main story focuses on Taiwan’s strategic dilemma, as it navigates a new phase of the U.S.–China rivalry under president Trump.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇰🇷 Impeached former president Yoon arrested: South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol became the nation’s first sitting president to face formal arrest after a court approved a warrant on charges linked to his failed martial law attempt. The Seoul Western District Court cited sufficient evidence and a risk of evidence tampering, allowing authorities to detain Yoon for up to 20 days. His impeachment followed a December 2024 martial law declaration, rejected by parliament after just six hours, during which Yoon allegedly ordered troops to suppress lawmakers. The Constitutional Court is now deliberating whether to reinstate or permanently remove him from office, a decision expected within 180 days.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 Moscow, Tehran expand security cooperation in bilateral presidential exchange: Presidents Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" aimed at strengthening ties between their heavily sanctioned nations. The agreement spans trade, military cooperation, science, culture, and education. At a joint news conference in Moscow, Putin hailed the pact as a “breakthrough” fostering stable development for Russia, Iran, and the region, while Pezeshkian described it as a new chapter in bilateral relations, particularly in trade. Both nations have intensified collaboration in politics, security, energy, and transport, with Iran supplying Shahed drones reportedly used in Russia's strikes on Ukraine. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has increasingly viewed Tehran as a key strategic ally, raising concerns among Western officials who see both as destabilising actors.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 🇺🇸 Syrian defence minister rejects Kurdish military bloc proposal: Syria's new Defence Minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, stated that US-backed Kurdish fighters, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), should integrate fully into the Defence Ministry rather than maintaining their status as a separate military bloc. Speaking in Damascus, Abu Qasra criticized the SDF leadership for delaying negotiations and emphasized that integration within the military hierarchy was a "right of the Syrian state." The SDF, which controls a semi-autonomous region, has sought decentralised governance and conditional integration, a proposal Abu Qasra rejected. Talks remain fraught, with the SDF also negotiating with the US and Iraqi Kurdistan officials while clashing with Turkish-backed forces. Abu Qasra aims to finalise military integration by 1 March, despite criticism of foreign fighter appointments and the transitional government's sweeping military reforms.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 Armistice brokered between Palestinian Authority and Jenin armed groups: Tensions in Jenin’s occupied West Bank camp have eased following an agreement between Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces and local armed groups, ending weeks of clashes that left over a dozen dead. PA forces entered the camp on Friday, dismantling explosives and clearing destruction after violent confrontations with the Jenin Battalion, a coalition of fighters from Fatah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad. The PA’s operation, launched last month to target "outlaws," faced accusations of complicity with Israel for detaining wanted militants. The agreement prohibits armed displays but ensures no surrender of weapons or fighters, providing relief to a camp frequently raided by Israeli forces. Since October 2023, over 800 Palestinians in the West Bank have been killed by Israeli troops or settlers, per the Palestinian Health Ministry.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel, Hamas exchange captives, aid begins to enter Gaza strip: As part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, 90 Palestinian captives were released early Monday, according to Israel’s prison service. This followed Hamas handing over three female Israeli captives to the Red Cross on Sunday morning, marking the deal’s initial phase. Concurrently, trucks carrying humanitarian aid entered Gaza shortly after the ceasefire began, with the UN confirming the delivery. The World Health Organization highlighted the immense challenges of rebuilding Gaza's health system after extensive destruction, emphasizing the complexity of addressing the region’s critical health needs.

Major Story

🇹🇼 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 TAIWAN’S STRATEGIC DILEMMA: NAVIGATING THE U.S.–CHINA RIVALRY UNDER TRUMP

Taiwan faces growing uncertainties in its relationship with Washington, balancing its strategic role as a democratic ally and leading microchip producer with rising security and economic challenges. Trump’s renewed focus on China raises doubts about U.S. support in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict. To bolster resilience, Taiwan must address energy and semiconductor vulnerabilities, while deepening regional and global ties alongside increased defence spending, writes New Lines Institute’s Miloš Maggiore.

Lessons from the First Trump Administration

Trump’s first term reshaped U.S.-China relations, marked by trade tariffs and a more assertive security stance. Despite a combative approach, his protectionist policies often prioritized economic interests over strategic consistency.

The Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Focus

Under Biden, U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific deepened, with the CHIPS Act emphasizing Taiwan’s role in the semiconductor supply chain and military aid growing.

Looking Ahead

As Trump enters his second term, Taiwan faces a $20.5 billion arms delivery backlog. It must strengthen alliances, secure energy with alternatives like nuclear power, and stabilize semiconductor supply chains. By diversifying partnerships and boosting self-reliance, Taiwan can navigate the U.S.-China tensions and safeguard its sovereignty.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 United States prepares for President Trump’s inauguration: On Monday, Donald Trump’s return to power will be displayed as he is sworn in for his second term as U.S. president. After a tumultuous period post-2020 election loss, where his false fraud claims led to the Capitol riot and multiple criminal charges, Trump has defied the odds. His inauguration, originally planned outdoors, will now be held indoors at the Capitol Rotunda due to icy conditions. Despite cold temperatures, Trump’s event will attract global figures, including former U.S. presidents, far-right leaders, and tech industry billionaires, signaling both a political and business convergence.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 Freeland looks to replace Trudeau as prime minister: Chrystia Freeland, a former journalist and senior government official once branded a "nasty woman" by Donald Trump during heated trade negotiations, has announced her bid to lead Canada’s Liberal Party and succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister. Freeland, who resigned as finance minister last month after disagreements with Trudeau over U.S. tariff threats, declared her candidacy in a social media post, with a formal campaign launch planned in Toronto on Sunday.