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📰 Trump's UN nominee presents vision

📰 Trump's UN nominee presents vision

and UK surpasses China in US Treasury holdings

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 22, 2025

Hello,

Today, Sudanese forces repel RSF assault as El Fasher siege worsens humanitarian crisis; Zelenskyy urges international response after Russian drone barrage hits Kyiv; and Israel strikes Hodeidah in Yemen.

Our lead story turns to Syria, where Israel and Türkiye compete for influence in the post-Assad order.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇯🇵 Prime Minister Ishiba rejects resignation despite upper house election setback: Japan’s ruling coalition has lost its upper house majority, prompting renewed scrutiny of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership. Securing just 47 of the 50 seats needed to retain control, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito now face diminished influence in both legislative chambers. Ishiba acknowledged the “harsh result” but vowed to stay on, citing ongoing trade negotiations with the United States as a priority. The rise of the far-right Sanseito party, which gained 14 seats with anti-immigration rhetoric and conspiracy-laden campaigning, has eroded the LDP’s conservative base. Amid inflation and political scandals, Ishiba’s tenure appears increasingly fragile, with potential successors like Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi waiting in the wings.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 UK Surpasses China in U.S. treasury holdings for first time since 2000: China’s officially recorded holdings of US Treasuries have dropped below the UK’s for the first time in over two decades, falling to $765bn in March compared to the UK’s $779bn. The shift highlights Beijing’s ongoing effort to diversify its reserves away from US assets. Once holding over $1.3tn in Treasuries, China has steadily reduced exposure—favouring gold, agency bonds, and shorter-maturity bills. Some of its holdings are likely hidden in custodial accounts in Belgium and Luxembourg. While UK figures reflect global investors using London as a financial base, analysts warn that China’s quiet sell-off signals strategic intent. As US credit ratings fall and refinancing costs rise, the Treasury market faces added pressure from shifting global capital flows.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Waltz as Trump’s UN ambassador signals tougher line on funding, priorities, and reform: Mike Waltz, Trump’s new nominee for U.N. ambassador, presented a clear “America First” vision at his July 15 Senate confirmation hearing, promising tighter U.S. oversight of U.N. spending and a focus on peace and security over climate or development goals. If confirmed, Waltz will enter a deeply divided United Nations, where diplomats are wary of Washington’s funding cuts and unilateralism. The Biden-era emphasis on multilateralism is being replaced by selective engagement—prioritising counterterrorism and peacekeeping while slashing other contributions. Waltz’s confirmation also signals U.S. resistance to growing Chinese influence and frustration with perceived U.N. inefficiencies, from climate programming to appointments like Francesca Albanese seen as ‘too political’.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 People in Gaza dying of starvation every day, says World Food Program: The World Food Programme’s emergency response director has warned that Gaza is in the throes of humanitarian catastrophe as famine conditions deepen and aid access remains blocked. Speaking after Israeli forces killed dozens more waiting for food near a WFP convoy, in “one of the greatest tragedies” the agency has seen. WFP noted that a quarter of Gaza’s population is in famine-like conditions, with nearly 100,000 women and children in urgent need of treatment for severe malnutrition, and that humanitarian access must include unimpeded aid crossings, safe routing, and the removal of armed actors from distribution areas. The WFP urged an immediate ceasefire, emphasising WFP’s capability and readiness to feed all 2.1 million residents if Israel lifts its illegal siege.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺 Sanctions expose systemic decay in Russia’s defence industry: Despite record defence spending and wartime urgency, Russia’s military-industrial complex is in decline. Constrained by sanctions and battlefield setbacks, Moscow has turned to outdated Soviet-era designs and unreliable import substitutes as it fails to build new, high-tech systems. Domestic production lags, innovation is stagnant, and quality control is deteriorating. Though Russia can still manufacture “good enough” systems to threaten Ukraine, it cannot keep pace with Western or Chinese military advances. Deep-rooted inefficiencies—corruption, workforce gaps, and over-centralisation—compound the crisis. The West should intensify pressure, exploiting Russia’s inability to modernise, and gradually erode its conventional and strategic capabilities. A weakened defence sector would not end Russian aggression but would make it far less potent.

Major Story

🇸🇾 🇮🇱 🇹🇷 ISRAEL, TURKEY COMPETE FOR INFLUENCE IN POST-ASSAD SYRIA

The fall of Bashar al-Assad has redrawn the strategic map of the Levant. While international and regional actors race to stabilise Syria, a deeper contest is unfolding. Israel, Türkiye, and Iran are repositioning, exploiting Syria’s transitional fragility to expand their influence and reshape the post-war order.

From Resistance Axis to Retrenchment

Assad’s removal marks a major setback for Iran. Once Tehran’s only Arab state ally, Syria served as a conduit for Iranian influence across the Levant. Iran’s extensive investment—estimated at up to $50 billion—helped entrench militias and project deterrence against Israel. Yet Israel’s military campaign has severely weakened Iran’s regional position, particularly following Hamas’s October 2023 attacks. With Damascus now controlled by Sunni factions hostile to Iran, Tehran’s axis is in retreat, compounded by Israeli and U.S. strikes that degraded HIzbollah and Hamas networks.

Türkiye’s Strategic Bet

Türkiye, long a supporter of Syria’s opposition, now finds itself the dominant foreign power in the country. Turkish-backed forces hold the north, and Ankara is negotiating a security pact that could station troops in central Syria. Beyond influence, Türkiye eyes lucrative reconstruction contracts and regional leverage. Yet its ambitions are constrained. The Kurdish-led SDF remains entrenched in the northeast, and Ankara fears Israeli–Kurdish cooperation amid shifting alliances. Israeli expansion in southern Syria has also alarmed Türkiye, whose leaders increasingly view Tel Aviv as a more complex threat than Tehran.

Israel’s Expanding Reach

Israel, now operating with unprecedented regional assertiveness, has launched over 1,000 strikes in Syria since Assad’s fall. It aims to block Iran, contain Türkiye, and court Syria’s minorities—Druze, Kurds, and Alawites—as strategic buffers. Yet its deepening footprint risks future confrontation, especially with Türkiye, and raises concerns among Arab states wary of Israeli territorial ambitions.

Outlook

Five plausible scenarios could emerge: a Türkiye–Israel understanding that fragments Syria into zones of influence; informal Israeli–Iranian support to minority factions; limited Iran–Türkiye cooperation against Israel; Iranian efforts to provoke Israeli overreach in Syria; or Israel carving out a southern-to-northeast corridor. Each scenario reflects shifting interests rather than fixed alliances. Their convergence could plunge Syria back into proxy war. Sustainable peace will depend on Syria’s ability to forge inclusive governance, reintegrate regionally, and resist becoming a chessboard in a renewed regional cold war.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇾🇪 Israel strikes Hodeidah, Yemen: Israel’s military has launched fresh strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen’s strategic Hodeidah port, Defence Minister Israel Katz announced. Katz described the attacks as a “pre-emptive effort” to prevent the reconstitution of “terror infrastructure.” Since October 2023, the Houthis have attacked Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Palestinians amid Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza. Israel has retaliated by intensifying operations in Houthi-held western Yemen, including Hodeidah, a key maritime hub. Katz warned that the Houthis would “pay a heavy price,” equating Yemen’s fate with that of Tehran. A Houthi official confirmed the strike had destroyed a recently rebuilt dock. The Red Sea theatre continues to expand as the war in Gaza spills beyond its borders.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy demands global action after record Russian drone assault devastates Kyiv: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has condemned Russia’s latest drone and missile barrage as “an assault on humanity,” after strikes across Kyiv killed two and targeted a crowded metro station. Germany pledged to send five Patriot air-defence systems, fast-tracking deliveries in coordination with the US. Zelenskyy warned that Moscow’s drone attacks are becoming more destructive, with over 420 drones and 20 missiles launched overnight—part of an escalating campaign that has battered civilian infrastructure. Footage from Lukianivska metro station, where hundreds were sheltering, showed smoke and debris from a direct strike. France pledged €200m in additional support following the attack, while Russia's increased drone efficiency underscores Kyiv’s urgent need for strengthened air defences.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Sudan Armed Forces repel RSF offensive as El Fasher siege deepens humanitarian crisis: Sudan’s army and allied militias claim to have repelled a major ground assault by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on El Fasher, the army’s final foothold in Darfur. Intense fighting reportedly centred on the city’s southern outskirts, with army artillery destroying RSF armoured vehicles and drones striking several city locations. A spokesman for the pro-army “Joint Force” asserted that hundreds of RSF fighters were killed and dozens of their vehicles captured. The RSF’s weeks-long offensive has tightened the siege on El Fasher, worsening conditions for hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped with limited access to food or medicine. Despite calls for a humanitarian truce, including by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, aid agencies report RSF forces are blocking essential relief from reaching the city.