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📰 Trump stirs Panama debate

📰 Trump stirs Panama debate

and Mozambique unrest grows

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
December 24, 2024

Hello,

U.S. diplomacy dominates today's headlines, with Washington removing the $10m bounty on HTS leader, pledging an additional $5bn in military aid to Egypt, and Trump suggesting a potential Panama Canal takeover over “exorbitant fees.” Meanwhile, the Pakistani Taliban target security forces in northwest Pakistan, and Mozambique grapples with escalating post-election unrest.

Our main story highlights the shifting dynamics in Myanmar, where a key military base has fallen to the rebel coalition.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukrainian drone strikes devastate Kazan: Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate after Ukrainian drones targeted residential areas in Kazan, located in Russia’s Tatarstan region. Speaking via videolink during a Sunday road-opening ceremony, Putin warned of severe consequences, stating those responsible “will face far greater destruction and regret their actions.” The attack involved six drones striking residential buildings and a seventh hitting an industrial site.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 U.S. support for Taiwan a ‘red line,’ says Beijing: China condemned the White House’s approval of a $295 million arms sale to Taiwan, warning it could destabilise the region. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, in a Saturday statement, criticised the move, calling it a violation of the one-China principle and joint agreements between Beijing and Washington. President Joe Biden also authorised up to $571 million in US military education and training for Taiwan, which China insists is part of its territory. Beijing warned that arming Taiwan fuels separatist ambitions, threatening that such actions “play with fire” and will provoke retaliation to protect China’s sovereignty and security.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇬 Washington earmarks additional $5 bn in military support for Egypt: The US State Department has approved a potential $5 billion arms sale to Egypt, notifying Congress on Friday. The deal includes $4.69 billion in equipment to upgrade Egypt’s M1A1 Abrams tanks, $630 million in Hellfire missiles, and $30 million in precision-guided munitions. According to the State Department, the sale aligns with US national security interests by bolstering the defences of a key Middle Eastern partner outside NATO. Cooperation between Egypt and the US has deepened since the Gaza conflict erupted in October 2023, with Cairo playing a mediating role in ceasefire negotiations.

4️⃣ 🇵🇦 🇺🇸 Trump hints at Panama canal takeover over ‘ridiculous fees’: US President-elect Donald Trump has warned he may seek control of the Panama Canal, accusing Panama of overcharging US ships navigating the vital waterway. Trump called the fees “ridiculous” on Truth Social, claiming the US Navy and commerce were being treated unfairly. The canal, constructed largely by the US in 1914, was fully transferred to Panama in 1999 after years of shared governance. Trump also raised concerns about China’s influence, insisting the canal should remain under Panama’s control and not fall into “the wrong hands.”

5️⃣ 🇲🇿 Mozambique grapples with post-election instability ahead of constitutional council ruling: Mozambique is bracing for unrest as the constitutional council prepares to rule on the contested October election results. Opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane warned of “chaos” if the court upholds the victory of ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo, who secured 70.7% of the vote. Mondlane’s Podemos party disputes the official results, claiming it won far more parliamentary seats than reported. Allegations of ballot-stuffing and vote tampering have sparked protests, with security forces killing at least 130 people, according to Human Rights Watch. The unrest has paralysed trade, closed borders, and brought daily life to a halt, while tensions continue to rise ahead of the court’s decision.

Major Story

🇲🇲 MAJOR MILITARY BASE FALLS TO MYANMAR REBEL COALITION

The Arakan Army (AA) has captured a vital military command in Rakhine state, dealing a serious setback to Myanmar’s junta. This marks the second regional command to fall in five months, underscoring the military’s struggles against growing armed resistance. The command in Ann was seized after two weeks of heavy fighting, further weakening the regime’s control in the west.

Escalating Conflict and Strategic Gains

Since November, intense clashes in Rakhine have shattered a prior ceasefire, allowing AA forces to capture large swathes of territory and isolate the state capital, Sittwe. The AA’s success adds momentum to the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of ethnic armed groups responsible for several major victories, including the capture of Lashio in August.

Regional and Humanitarian Impact

Rakhine’s strategic importance is heightened by major infrastructure projects backed by China and India. As the conflict disrupts trade and agriculture, the UN has warned of looming famine conditions, with severe food insecurity anticipated by mid-2025. The junta’s ability to respond remains uncertain as fighting spreads across multiple fronts.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syrian troops that served Assad pursue amnesty: Hundreds of former Syrian soldiers reported to Damascus on Saturday, responding to the new government’s call for amnesty in exchange for information about potential crimes committed under Bashar Assad’s rule. The soldiers, many seeking reintegration into civilian life, were questioned by former insurgents now in power. Outside the former Ba’ath Party headquarters, some ex-soldiers admitted they had joined Assad’s forces for stable pay and healthcare. With Assad exiled and the military dissolved, the interim government is investigating mass graves, torture sites, and atrocities tied to Assad’s regime.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 U.S. lift Ahmed al-Sharaa’s bounty: The US has revoked a $10 million bounty on Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), following direct talks between American diplomats and HTS officials in Damascus. Barbara Leaf, the State Department’s top Middle East envoy, stated that Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, assured the US that Islamic State (IS) and other extremist groups would not operate in HTS-controlled areas. Leaf explained that maintaining the bounty while engaging in diplomatic discussions would undermine efforts to negotiate. The talks, also attended by presidential envoy Roger Carstens and senior adviser Daniel Rubinstein, addressed Iran’s influence in Syria and the fate of missing Americans, including journalist Austin Tice and psychotherapist Majd Kamalmaz. The US has had no formal diplomatic ties with Syria since 2012.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Pakistani Taliban kill security forces in country’s northwest: The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack on a military checkpoint in northwest Pakistan, killing 35 soldiers and injuring 15 others. The assault took place early Saturday in South Waziristan, part of the volatile Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan. Militants reportedly seized weapons and night vision equipment during the raid. While the army has not issued a formal statement, a security official, speaking anonymously, confirmed 16 soldiers were killed and eight wounded. This marks another escalation in violence following the Pakistani Taliban’s decision to end a ceasefire with the government in November 2022, citing failed negotiations mediated by Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership.