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📰 Trump to visit China?

📰 Trump to visit China?

and Trinidad and Tobago declares state of emergency

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 21, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Today, South China Morning Post reports that Donald Trump may visit China ahead of October’s APEC summit in South Korea. Meanwhile, the UN has raised alarm over a surge in arbitrary detentions and gender-based repression in South Sudan, and Trinidad and Tobago has declared a state of emergency.

Our lead story explores how Russia’s past willingness to offer reparations may provide Ukraine with leverage in ongoing peace negotiations.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇨🇳 Beijing strengthens junta in Myanmar as regional powers re-engage: China’s intervention to stabilise Myanmar’s military regime has reshaped regional diplomacy. Initially frustrated with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing—particularly over scam syndicates targeting Chinese citizens—Beijing withheld support, even allowing a critical UN resolution to pass. But after rebel offensives threatened the regime’s survival in mid-2024, China reversed course, delivering weapons, brokering ceasefires, and pressuring armed groups like the MNDAA to hand over Lashio. Beijing’s influence enabled the regime’s survival, prompting India, Thailand, and Malaysia to renew diplomatic ties. This creeping normalisation has been further enabled by the Trump administration’s disengagement. With Washington showing little interest beyond tariffs, regional actors feel freer to re-engage the junta. While regime-planned elections in late 2025 will lack credibility, they are seen as a face-saving mechanism to restore diplomatic routines, with Beijing pushing hardest for the vote to proceed.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 Von der Leyen faces budget backlash as EU factions clash over spending plans: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen began her second term with a daunting challenge, that of reforming the EU’s next seven-year budget. With pressures mounting from defence needs, post-COVID priorities, and ongoing Ukraine aid, the task quickly exposed deep political fractures. Most member states are reluctant to increase contributions, while the European Parliament demands expanded funding—especially for farmers and social programmes. Last week’s budget unveiling was marred by infighting and confusion. Figures were finalised just hours before the presentation, leaving even commissioners in the dark. Lawmakers were furious at delays and the lack of clarity. Von der Leyen’s bid to tie funding to national reforms triggered pushback from a cross-party coalition within the Commission, who successfully defended major agricultural and regional spending. The rocky start underscores her waning influence and sets the stage for a turbulent negotiation process.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Sharaa enforces ceasefire as Suwayda reels from sectarian violence and Israeli strikes: Relative calm returned to Syria’s Suwayda province on Sunday after a week of brutal sectarian clashes between Druze factions and Damascus-linked militants left over 900 dead. Government forces reportedly blocked access routes to prevent further escalation, while humanitarian convoys prepared to enter the Druze-majority city, where residents remain without electricity, water, or adequate food. Both local sources and observers accused Damascus of siding with Bedouin fighters and committing abuses. Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced a ceasefire Saturday, promising to protect minority communities. The move followed U.S.-brokered de-escalation efforts between Syria and Israel, after Israeli airstrikes hit Suwayda and Damascus.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Lawmakers demand oversight as U.S.-Israeli Gaza aid scheme as starvation escalates: A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is demanding accountability from the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a Delaware-based nonprofit backed by Washington and Tel Aviv to replace UN aid delivery in Gaza. Since beginning operations in May, GHF has operated from four distribution hubs under Israeli military control, replacing the UN’s 400-site network amid an 11-week blockade. Reports and footage reveal lethal force used against desperate Palestinians seeking aid, with nearly 700 killed near GHF sites from late May to mid-July. GHF blames Hamas, but provides no evidence. The UN has refused to cooperate with the GHF, citing its illegal and inhumane strategic imperatives. Congressional Democrats have sought answers, but Trump’s administration invoked emergency powers to fund GHF without consultation, bypassing oversight. Lawmakers now call for full hearings to investigate what many view as a U.S.-enabled humanitarian catastrophe.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇨🇾 Erdogan attends anniversary of Turkish invasion as Cypriot divide hardens: Greek and Turkish Cypriots marked 51 years since Turkey’s 1974 invasion of Cyprus on Sunday, highlighting enduring tensions over the island’s division. Air raid sirens echoed across Greek Cypriot areas at dawn—the moment Turkish forces landed in response to a coup backed by Greece. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended commemorations in the Turkish-occupied north, while Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides denounced the “shameful” celebrations and vowed never to “yield an inch of land.” Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar defended the invasion as bringing “peace and tranquility” to his community, while reunification talks remain stalled. The conflict remains a major obstacle in Turkey’s EU relations, with UN-brokered dialogue offering little progress. Secretary-General António Guterres warned that rebuilding trust will be a “long road ahead.”

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 RUSSIA’S HISTORY OF REPARATIONS OFFERS LEVERAGE FOR UKRAINE IN PEACE TALKS

As the U.S. pushes for a third round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, reparations are expected to feature prominently. Ukraine has proposed that frozen Russian sovereign assets be redirected toward reconstruction or held until reparations are paid. While sharp divides persist on other issues, reparations may be an area of potential compromise, with Moscow reportedly open to negotiations under pressure.

Legal and International Norms

International law requires states to compensate for damage from wrongful acts, especially in cases of aggression. A 2022 UN General Assembly resolution recognised Russia’s violations and supported an international compensation mechanism, including a register of damage and a prospective claims commission. Domestically, Ukraine has initiated interim reparations schemes for war survivors and detainees, although financing remains a challenge.

Precedents in Russian Diplomacy

Historically, Russia has accepted reparatory provisions in peace settlements. Soviet treaties with Baltic states in 1920 included war compensation and cultural restitution. Post-Soviet Russia contributed billions of rubles to infrastructure reconstruction and refugee resettlement following conflicts in Georgia and Chechnya. Although many of these commitments were later undermined, they nonetheless show that reparations are not foreign to Russian diplomacy.

Frozen Assets as Leverage

Ukraine’s strategy of tying reparations to the release of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets mirrors the U.S.–Iran Algiers Accords of 1981, where frozen assets were used to finance claims. Europe, which holds most of Russia’s frozen reserves, has taken a firmer stance than the U.S., renewing sanctions and considering repurposing funds for reconstruction. Reports suggest Russia may be willing to allocate some assets to rebuilding Russian-held eastern Ukraine.

A Narrowing Window for Justice

Although the war’s frontlines have stabilised and U.S. support for Ukraine has waned, a reparations deal remains feasible. International precedent, Russian diplomatic history, and the legal framework for accountability all point to a viable path forward—if pressure is maintained. For Ukraine, frozen assets may offer the best chance to ensure that reparations become more than a rhetorical demand, but a concrete pillar of peace.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago declares state of emergency: Trinidad and Tobago has declared a state of emergency for the second time in a year over what police describe as an imminent threat from organised criminal networks operating inside and outside its prisons. Police Commissioner Allister Guevarro cited intelligence suggesting gang leaders had coalesced into a national crime syndicate plotting assassinations, kidnappings, and robberies. Authorities have begun transferring key inmates to more secure facilities to sever communication with outside collaborators. While no recent crime surge was reported, officials say the move is part of a pre-emptive strategy. Attorney General John Jeremie warned of a resurgence in gang killings and confirmed emergency powers will remain in place as long as necessary. Critics, however, including former police chief Gary Griffith, argue the crisis stems from corruption and poor prison oversight.

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 SCMP suggests Trump may visit China before October’s South Korea APEC summit: The upcoming Apec summit in Gyeongju offers the most likely venue this year for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with speculation Trump could also visit China beforehand. Although Xi is expected to attend the October 30–November 1 summit, Trump’s participation remains unconfirmed. Recent talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi signalled renewed diplomatic engagement following Trump’s threats of steep tariffs and pressure on Beijing over Taiwan. Both sides now seek to stabilise relations through incremental steps, including agreements on trade and fentanyl. Analysts suggest Xi holds more leverage, as Trump is keen to meet, while Beijing remains cautious—especially amid tensions over Taiwan and U.S. lawmakers’ interactions with Taipei’s leadership.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇸 UN warns of rising arbitrary detentions and gender-based repression in South Sudan: Arbitrary arrests in South Sudan have surged, targeting political opponents, activists, and women, undermining the 2018 peace accord and stoking fears of renewed conflict. UN investigators documented nearly 400 victims detained without due process between January and June 2025, many linked to the SPLA-IO. Detainees, including First Vice President Riek Machar, are held incommunicado, often tortured. Women and girls are increasingly arrested for rejecting forced marriages or seeking divorce, highlighting gendered abuses of power. One woman jailed for divorcing a military officer faced repeated arrests and abuse. UN advocacy secured the release of over 500 detainees, yet rights groups warn that state-sanctioned repression and political purges threaten to derail fragile peace efforts and suppress democratic participation. The UN urges urgent international support to prevent further backsliding.