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📰 Turkey’s influence in Syria grows

📰 Turkey’s influence in Syria grows

and Russia's falters

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 17, 2024

Hello,

Today's geopolitical developments highlight escalating tensions in the Middle East. Israel has announced plans to close its embassy in Ireland—citing political disputes—while its airstrikes have caused significant devastation along Syria's Mediterranean coast. Elsewhere, Germany is headed for a snap election.

Attention also turns to Asia, where this year’s elections frequently undermined democratic principles. Authoritarian practices and systemic biases have shaped electoral outcomes, raising concerns about the region’s democratic trajectory.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 Assad’s ouster signals Moscow’s strategic decay in the Middle East: The fall of Bashar al-Assad has disrupted Russia’s Middle East strategy, marking a significant blow to Putin’s ambitions in the region. Once lauded for salvaging Assad’s regime in 2015 and building alliances with Iran and Hizbollah, Moscow now faces a strategic crisis. Assad’s ouster forced Moscow to shift its stance, calling for political dialogue and claiming credit for minimizing bloodshed during Damascus’s fall. However, retaining key military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim remains critical for Russia to project power in the region and beyond. With Ankara’s influence over dominant rebel factions like HTS, Turkey’s cooperation could prove pivotal to preserving Moscow’s foothold. The Council on Foreign Relations posits that while the situation is fluid, Putin is unlikely to cede ground in Syria, as doing so would erode Russia’s regional clout and his domestic standing.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 Germany set for snap election after Scholz loses no-confidence vote: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has lost a pivotal vote of confidence in the Bundestag, clearing the path for early national elections following the collapse of his government. Scholz called for the vote to accelerate new elections, securing 394 no-confidence votes—well above the required 367—while 207 supported him and 116 abstained. The government’s “traffic light” coalition crumbled in November when the Free Democrats (FDP) withdrew over disputes surrounding fiscal policy, leaving Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens to govern as a minority. Scholz defended his push for early elections, stating disunity could no longer be tolerated, and vowed that Germany’s best days lie ahead, despite ongoing economic challenges. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz framed the upcoming election as a turning point, urging Germans to embrace economic discipline and national effort.

3️⃣ 🇲🇱 🇧🇫 🇳🇪 The rise of JNIM in the Sahel: The al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is steadily consolidating control in the central Sahel, particularly in Mali and Burkina Faso, while extending its attacks into Niger and coastal states. Enforcing its harsh interpretation of sharia law, JNIM employs brutal tactics to suppress dissent, mirroring al-Qaeda’s earlier iterations in Iraq and Syria. Without decisive intervention, JNIM risks solidifying its presence as a quasi-governing body, emboldening transnational terrorist networks and raising the likelihood of ideologically driven attacks in Europe and the U.S. Current counterterrorism efforts in West Africa remain inadequate, failing to address JNIM’s non-military strategies, allowing the group to expand its influence unchecked.

4️⃣ 🇳🇬 Nigeria’s waning influence and prospects for revival: Once a diplomatic trailblazer in Africa, Nigeria’s influence has declined over the past 15 years due to domestic political instability, economic and security crises, and the rise of other regional powers like South Africa. Despite President Bola Tinubu’s 2023 pledge to restore Nigeria’s leadership, Abuja struggles to reclaim its stature, as challenges persist both domestically and regionally. Nigeria’s strong legacy—including its pivotal role in decolonisation and peacekeeping—contrasts sharply with its recent missteps, such as ECOWAS’ failed response to the Niger coup, which deepened divides in West Africa. To regain relevance, Nigeria looks to bolster its foreign policy architecture, strengthen AU engagement, and work to reconcile with breakaway ECOWAS states or redefine relations with emerging blocs.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇴 Bill for Somaliland recognition introduced to U.S. Congress: U.S. Representative Scott Perry has introduced House Bill 10402, a historic push for recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. The bill highlights Somaliland's stability, democratic governance, and strategic importance near key maritime routes in the Horn of Africa. It proposes formal U.S. recognition, a diplomatic presence in Hargeisa, and positions Somaliland as a counterbalance to regional instability and growing Chinese influence. Somaliland’s consistent peaceful elections, including a recent transition of power, underscore its governance credentials compared to Somalia's turmoil. If passed, U.S. recognition could reshape Horn of Africa geopolitics, boosting bilateral cooperation in security and trade while challenging Somalia’s territorial claims and broader hesitancy within the African Union.

Major Story

🇧🇩 🇮🇳 🇮🇩 🇵🇰 🇰🇷 ELECTIONS WITHOUT DEMOCRACY: ASIA’S DEMOCRATIC DECLINE

2024 was billed as a “year of elections,” with nearly 100 countries heading to the polls, including populous Asian nations like Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Pakistan. However, the year’s electoral activity often fell short of bolstering democracy, as authoritarian practices and systemic bias shaped outcomes.

Authoritarian Consolidation

In Pakistan, the February elections were overshadowed by the military’s dominance. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan—jailed on controversial charges—had his supporters rally against alleged election manipulation. Despite these protests, Pakistan remains firmly under military control, with crackdowns escalating to the use of lethal force against dissent.

In Bangladesh, opposition parties boycotted the election, citing an environment too rigged to ensure fairness under Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. Widespread protests forced Hasina to step down, paving the way for a caretaker government promising reforms and the potential for fair elections.

Cambodia saw its shift from hybrid governance to full autocracy solidified as former Prime Minister Hun Sen handed power to his son, Hun Manet. Despite vague pledges of reform, his rule mirrors his father’s authoritarianism.

Tilted Playing Fields

India’s parliamentary election reflected years of structural bias under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP. Media suppression, restrictions on dissent, and polarisation along religious lines helped the BJP maintain power despite losing its parliamentary majority.

In Indonesia, a backroom deal between Prabowo Subianto and President Joko Widodo enabled Prabowo’s victory, facilitated by rule changes favouring Widodo’s politically inexperienced son as vice-presidential candidate.

Democratic Backslides

Thailand’s progressive Move Forward Party faced judicial bans for challenging draconian royal defamation laws. Meanwhile, in South Korea, Prime Minister Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief declaration of martial law raised concerns over democratic erosion in one of Asia’s strongest democracies.

Overall, 2024 highlighted the fragility of democratic processes in Asia, with elections often undermined by authoritarian entrenchment and systemic inequality.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇮🇪 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 Israel pulls its diplomatic mission to Ireland: Israel has announced plans to close its embassy in Ireland, citing Dublin's recognition of a Palestinian state and support for South Africa's case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar described the move as a response to Ireland’s "extreme anti-Israel policies," and emphasised that Israel will focus on fostering ties with nations aligning with its interests and values. Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris condemned the decision as “deeply regrettable,” rejecting claims of anti-Israel sentiment. “Ireland is pro-peace, pro-human rights, and pro-international law,” Harris stated, reaffirming support for a two-state solution and a commitment to speaking out for human rights.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Syria’s Mediterranean coast devastated by Israeli strikes: The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights described the assault as "the heaviest strikes in Syria’s coastal region since 2012," targeting strategic sites and air defences along the western coast. The attacks followed the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in a swift rebel offensive, marking a significant escalation. The Observatory reported 473 Israeli strikes on military sites since Assad’s ousting on December 8, a scale unseen even during the civil war. The region, a historic Assadist stronghold, includes significant Alawite communities.