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📰 U.S. approves Taiwan arms deal

📰 U.S. approves Taiwan arms deal

and Russian, Chinese planes enter Korean airspace

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 03, 2024

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Today’s geopolitical updates spotlight East Asia, where Russian and Chinese aircraft entered South Korea’s air defence identification zone. Meanwhile, the U.S. has approved a $385 million arms package for Taiwan, prompting Beijing to pledge “resolute countermeasures.”

Our main story shifts focus to the Maghreb, where tensions between Morocco and Algeria continue to escalate. The rivalry, fuelled by disputes over the Abraham Accords, Western Sahara’s sovereignty, and a spiralling arms race, underscores the precarious balance of power in the region.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 U.S. approves $385m in arms for Taiwan, China vows response: Beijing has pledged to take "resolute countermeasures" after the US approved a US$385 million arms sale to Taiwan. China's foreign ministry condemned the decision, calling it an infringement on its sovereignty and a threat to bilateral relations, urging the US to halt support for Taiwan's separatist forces. The sale includes US$320 million in spare parts and support for Taiwan's F-16 jets, and US$65 million for communications systems. The US, which does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, continues to provide military support to defend the island against potential Chinese aggression, with deliveries expected to begin next year.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇹🇿 De-escalation in DR Congo a priority at East African summit: East African leaders have convened to address the escalating conflict in eastern Congo, though the summit's effectiveness was undermined by the absence of Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and the early departure of Rwandan President Paul Kagame. A communique issued after the closed-door meeting in Arusha, Tanzania, emphasized aligning regional and international peace efforts to resolve the crisis, but prospects for stability remain uncertain. Congo has accused Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group, which it claims is committing “ethnic cleansing” in mineral-rich border areas, a charge Rwanda denies despite admitting in February to deploying troops in Congo for its security.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇬🇧 🇮🇷 European leaders and Iran commit to maintaining dialogue: Following secretive talks in Geneva, representatives from Germany, France, Britain, and Iran stated the discussions focused on Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions, and regional issues. The parties agreed to continue diplomatic dialogue soon, with Iran's deputy foreign minister describing the talks as "candid." Meanwhile, Britain's foreign intelligence chief warned that Iran's nuclear ambitions still pose a ‘major global security risk,’ despite setbacks suffered by its regional allies, Hamas and Hizbollah.

4️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇹🇩 France, Chad officially end military partnership: Chad has decided to end its defense cooperation agreement with France, aiming to assert its sovereignty and redefine its strategic partnerships. This marks a significant shift for the country, over 60 years after gaining independence from its former colonial ruler. The move comes after France's military presence was reduced in neighboring countries like Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, where regional governments have increasingly turned towards Russia. Chad’s interim president, Mahamat Deby Itno, who took power in 2021 following his father’s death, has faced protests over the extension of the country’s political transition period.

5️⃣ 🇺🇾 🇻🇪 Uruguayan president-elect opts to maintain Venezuela ties: Uruguay's president-elect, Yamandu Orsi, reiterated his stance on Venezuela during a Wednesday press conference, emphasizing the importance of respecting established diplomatic relations. Orsi, set to take office in March after his center-left victory on November 24, stated that he would decide whether to invite Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to his inauguration "in the moment," citing that relationships are between states, not presidents. While Uruguay’s current president, Luis Lacalle Pou, has harshly criticized Maduro's regime, especially at the UN, the country still maintains diplomatic ties with Venezuela. This comes after Venezuela withdrew diplomats from several Latin American nations, including Argentina, Chile, and Peru, following the disputed July election.

Major Story

🇲🇦 🇩🇿 ALGERIA AND MOROCCO’S BURGEONING RIVALRY

Since Algeria severed ties with Morocco in 2021, the two nations have managed to avoid direct conflict despite numerous provocations—particularly regarding the sovereignty of Western Sahara. Morocco’s 2020 normalisation of relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords—coupled with military cooperation—aggravated Algeria, perceiving these developments as threats to its national security. The core issue, however, remains Western Sahara, where Morocco claims sovereignty and Algeria supports the pro-independence Polisario Front. While U.S. diplomacy and mutual restraint have prevented escalation, factors like armed clashes in Western Sahara, disinformation campaigns, and an ongoing arms race continue to pose significant risks.

Key Drivers of Tension

Morocco, under King Mohamed VI, has pursued a more assertive foreign policy, expanding its regional influence and international partnerships. Algeria, recovering from domestic unrest and political instability, has sought to reclaim its historical prominence under President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. However, incidents such as Morocco’s support for Kabylie’s self-determination and alleged espionage using Israeli technology have heightened hostilities. The Polisario Front’s 2020 renunciation of a long-standing ceasefire further exacerbated the situation, leading to protracted clashes that endangered the UN mission in Western Sahara.

External Influences

The U.S. has worked to de-escalate tensions, while European nations—notably Spain and France—have shifted toward Morocco’s stance, alienating Algeria. This geopolitical rivalry has also impacted broader African dynamics, with both nations vying for influence in the Sahel and African Union, in addition to Algeria’s recent accession to the BRICS bloc.

Pathways to Stability

An International Crisis Group report surmises that preventing conflict requires sustained international engagement. Key measures include preserving the UN mission’s role, curbing arms sales to both sides, and reviving negotiations on Western Sahara. Additionally, addressing online disinformation and fostering dialogue between Algiers and Rabat could lay the groundwork for improved relations. Ultimately, restoring diplomatic ties and fostering regional cooperation are essential to achieving a lasting detente.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇭 🇺🇸 WTO chief begins second term: The head of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, expressed her eagerness to collaborate with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and his trade team, though she remains cautious about his proposed tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada. Her comments came after she was re-elected for a second term with unanimous support. Okonjo-Iweala acknowledged that Trump’s return to power could bring challenges for the WTO, particularly regarding his plans to impose unilateral tariffs. Despite past threats to withdraw from the organization, she emphasised that the WTO plays a crucial role in protecting U.S. interests in areas like intellectual property and product safety.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇰🇷 Russian, Chinese planes enter Korean airspace: 11 Chinese and Russian military aircraft entered South Korea's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over a span of four hours during the weekend, prompting the South Korean military to deploy fighter jets. The aircraft entered in sequence but exited without violating South Korea’s airspace, the Joint Chiefs of Staff reported. South Korea had identified the planes before their entry and conducted tactical manoeuvres in response. While both China and Russia do not recognise South Korea's ADIZ, such incursions have been frequent in recent years, with aircraft typically exiting the zone without incident.