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Today’s headlines are once again dominated by the United States: Washington accelerates its withdrawal from Syria, the Pentagon reconsiders the AUKUS pact, and diplomats push for a deal that would compel Rwanda to withdraw troops from eastern DRC. In Brazil, Bolsonaro denies plotting a coup but admits to exploring post-election power options.

Our lead story examines whether Bosnia’s Dayton Accords can be reimagined before political fragmentation becomes irreversible.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 U.S. begins embassy evacuations amid rising tensions with Iran, CENTCOM prepares military options: Washington has begun evacuating non-essential personnel from its embassies in Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait, citing heightened tensions with Iran. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has reportedly provided the White House with a range of military options should nuclear talks collapse, as disagreements over uranium enrichment persist. After rejecting a narrowed U.S. proposal, Tehran threatened to strike American bases, prompting Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to authorise departures across the region. President Trump now says he is “less confident” of a deal. Maritime agencies have warned of possible disruptions in the Gulf, while Iran’s defence minister declared U.S. bases “within reach.” With hopes for an agreement fading, Trump reiterated his resolve: Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons, even if it means resorting to force.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Beijing–Washington agree on framework to implement Geneva trade consensus: Following two days of intense negotiations in London, the U.S. and China have agreed on a framework to revive last month’s trade deal, pending final approval from Presidents Trump and Xi. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick credited the breakthrough to Trump’s conciliatory tone during a 90-minute call with Xi, which Chinese officials repeatedly cited during talks. The deal, struck at Lancaster House, aims to restore the May 12 tariff pause and ease China’s restrictions on rare earth exports—critical to high-tech industries. Tensions had escalated after tit-for-tat moves on tech and student visas, but both sides now seek economic stability. While US data remains solid, China’s exports to the US dropped 34% in May. Details remain vague, but the framework marks a cautious step toward de-escalation.

3️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇪🇺 Tusk survives confidence vote after election setback: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk secured a vote of confidence, winning 243 votes to 210, in a move aimed at reaffirming his government's mandate following a painful presidential election loss. The June 1 victory of nationalist Karol Nawrocki, tied to the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, dashed Tusk’s hopes for a more cooperative presidency. Instead, Tusk now faces two and a half years of legislative gridlock, with Nawrocki poised to veto key reforms. Addressing parliament, Tusk defended his coalition’s achievements, from increased defence spending to economic recovery and migration controls, while promising a cabinet reshuffle in July. He also vowed to expose past PiS abuses and restore judicial independence—though Nawrocki is likely to block such efforts. Tusk acknowledged the political road ahead would be far tougher than anticipated.

4️⃣ 🇱🇾 🇹🇷 🇬🇷 🇪🇬 Haftar's Libya’s flirtation with Turkey unsettles Greece, tests Egypt’s regional balancing: Greece is reportedly urging Egypt to dissuade eastern Libya’s Haftar-backed authorities from endorsing a maritime deal with Turkey, which would mark a dramatic reversal in regional alignments. The 2019 Turkey-Tripoli agreement excluded Greece’s maritime claims, prompting Athens to respond with its own pact with Cairo. Now, eastern Libya—historically aligned with Egypt and opposed to Turkish influence—is weighing support for Ankara, after Haftar’s son held landmark talks in Ankara. Such a shift could jeopardise the Greece-Egypt deal, complicate natural gas cooperation with Israel and Cyprus, and embolden Syria to follow suit. While unlikely to yield immediate change, analysts suggest these moves reflect internal Libyan rivalries more than a coherent foreign policy, and risk inflaming the recently mended ties between Cairo and Ankara.

5️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇸 U.S. pushing for agreement that requires Rwanda to remove its forces from eastern DRC: A draft peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, obtained by Radio France Internationale, outlines firm preconditions before any deal can be signed. Chief among them is the unconditional withdrawal of all Rwandan troops, weapons, and equipment from Congolese territory—except in cases explicitly allowed under the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism. This directly challenges Kigali’s stance, as Rwanda denies having forces in the DRC, framing its presence as “defensive measures.” The text also calls for lifting the state of siege in North Kivu, in place since 2021, to restore civilian governance and enable progress. Furthermore, it stipulates that no agreement with Rwanda will be signed before Kinshasa and the M23/AFC reach a ceasefire, currently under Qatari mediation. The draft also includes provisions for dismantling the FDLR in coordination with Rwanda, under the Luanda framework.

Major Story

🇧🇦 🇪🇺 BOSNIA AT THE BRINK: CAN DAYTON BE REIMAGINED BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE?

Bosnia and Herzegovina faces its gravest postwar political crisis, as Republika Srpska (RS) defies state authority and edges toward de facto secession. Milorad Dodik, RS’s president, has long tested Sarajevo’s limits, but a court conviction for disobeying the high representative has raised the stakes. RS’s legislature has since passed sweeping laws undermining the state judiciary and cementing entity control—steps designed to assert autonomy rather than outright independence, which remains diplomatically unviable. 

At the heart of the conflict is the legacy of the 1995 Dayton Accords, which ended the war but entrenched ethnic divisions and a weak central state. The high representative’s post-Dayton “Bonn powers” gradually strengthened state institutions, often to the resentment of RS and Croat leaders. Today, RS seeks a return to “original Dayton,” demanding international supervision be rolled back and entity prerogatives restored.

Dodik’s gamble rests on shifting international winds. He

has cultivated allies in Trump’s orbit, hosted Rudy Giuliani, and aligned with Serbia’s Vučić and Hungary’s Orbán. Meanwhile, Washington’s muted support for the high representative under Trump contrasts with EU backing for his authority. Yet despite these ties, U.S. sanctions remain in place, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently condemned Dodik’s actions. Pressure is mounting, with Bosnian prosecutors pursuing charges of undermining constitutional order. But arresting Dodik could trigger political upheaval or even renewed ethnic unrest. Even his removal would not end the crisis: RS’s push for autonomy reflects a broader, deep-seated rejection of international tutelage and Sarajevo’s growing power.

A negotiated political reset remains the least destructive path forward, writes Crisis Group’s Marko Prelec. RS’s manoeuvres may be aimed at forcing such talks—potentially involving Croats who also chafe under the current framework. Yet without robust U.S. and EU mediation and incentives—such as EU accession conditionality—there is little sign Bosnia’s entrenched leaders can overcome their mutual suspicion.

Three decades after Dayton, Bosnia’s survival as a unified state hinges less on international enforcement and more on whether its own leaders can craft a legitimate, inclusive model of governance. Without external pressure to catalyse compromise, paralysis—and slow fragmentation—will likely prevail.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Bolsonaro denies coup, admits exploring post-election power options: During a televised Supreme Court hearing, Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro denied orchestrating a coup but acknowledged discussing “alternative constitutional avenues” to remain in power after losing the 2022 election. He admitted evaluating drastic measures such as military deployment and suspending civil liberties, but claimed these were never seriously pursued due to lack of support. Bolsonaro apologised for past inflammatory accusations against justices, including lead judge Alexandre de Moraes, yet used much of the hearing to defend his administration. His former aide, Lt Col Mauro Cid, testified that Bolsonaro edited a draft decree calling for new elections and arrests of lawmakers. Bolsonaro is one of eight defendants, including military officials, accused of plotting to overturn the election—a case seen as historic in a nation still shadowed by its 1964–85 military dictatorship.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 U.S. accelerates Syria withdrawal, leaving fragile alliances and strategic loose ends: The United States has begun a swift military drawdown in Syria, with 500 troops withdrawn and only three remaining bases, as President Trump pushes to exit both Syria and Iraq by 2026. Critical counter-ISIS operations have now been transferred to local partners, notably the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who face pressure to integrate into the new Syrian Army by August. Washington also dropped prior objections to foreign fighters joining Syrian units, signalling a dramatic policy reversal. Trump’s recent meeting with President al-Sharaa in Riyadh confirmed U.S. sanctions relief and a planned handover of military responsibilities. Though long framed as a counter-terrorism mission, the U.S. withdrawal raises concerns over a security vacuum, unresolved governance issues, and the fragility of recent gains—particularly as IS remnants and regional rivals await any opportunity to exploit instability.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 🇬🇧 Pentagon reassesses AUKUS deal as concerns rise over strategic costs and commitments: The Pentagon is reassessing the AUKUS security pact between the U.S., UK, and Australia, which includes developing nuclear-powered submarines and hypersonic weapons to counter China’s Pacific influence. The review, led by policy chief Elbridge Colby, comes amid concerns the deal may strain U.S. shipbuilding capacity. While Colby has previously criticized plans to sell Virginia-class submarines to Australia, he acknowledged during Senate hearings that AUKUS remains a critical alliance. The review has drawn criticism from Democrats, who warn that backtracking could damage U.S. credibility and benefit Beijing. With $3 billion in Australian investment and expanding cooperation in advanced technologies, AUKUS is a cornerstone of current defence planning. Allies like the UK remain committed, but Washington’s wavering has left key lawmakers questioning the consistency of U.S. leadership.

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