Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 U.S. eyes Congo minerals deal

📰 U.S. eyes Congo minerals deal

and status quo prevails in Lebanese elections

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 27, 2025

Hello,

In Germany, Chancellor Merz questions Israel’s Gaza offensive and lifts weapons range limits for Ukraine. In the Middle East, civilians continue to suffer amid Yemen’s deepening crisis, while an Iran-Iraq-Israel prisoner exchange appears imminent amid broader regional de-escalation.

Today’s main story analyses Lebanon’s municipal elections, where entrenched power blocs prevailed and polarisation, not political renewal, defined the outcome.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇸 U.S. eyes Congo minerals deal as Kinshasa links investment to Rwanda-backed M23 withdrawal: Kinshasa is hopeful of securing a major deal with Washington by late June, trading U.S. access to key minerals like cobalt and lithium for investment in infrastructure and support in ending a Rwanda-backed rebellion in eastern DRC. The proposed agreement—paired with a possible peace deal with Rwanda—would help reduce DR Congo’s reliance on China, which has dominated the sector since a 2008 infrastructure-for-minerals pact. However, Congolese officials insist no agreement can proceed unless Rwandan forces and M23 rebels withdraw from occupied territory. Kigali, while denying ties to the rebels, sees the talks as a path to legitimise its role in regional metals processing. Trump’s envoy Massad Boulos has pushed for continued negotiations, as both sides weigh economic cooperation against deep-seated security concerns and territorial disputes.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇸 U.S. urged to act as Sudan spirals deeper into chaos: Testifying before Congress, analyst Cameron Hudson warned that Sudan's conflict has evolved into a brutal proxy war, drawing in foreign fighters, advanced weaponry, and rival regional powers. He described a worsening humanitarian disaster, with drones now used to strike key infrastructure and civilian sites, including camps for the displaced. Hudson criticised past U.S. policy as ineffective and urged the Trump administration to engage Gulf allies—particularly the UAE, which has been widely accused of backing the RSF. He argued that a regional de-escalation strategy is critical to prevent Sudan’s collapse. With millions displaced and regional actors seeking influence, he called for the U.S. to act swiftly—warning that without intervention, Sudan risks becoming an ungovernable failed state at the heart of Africa.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇶 🇱🇧 Iran-Iraq-Israel prisoner swap nears amid wider regional de-escalation: A multi-party prisoner exchange involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon is reportedly close to completion, according to Arab security sources cited by Amwaj.media. The complex deal includes the release of Israeli-Russian academic Elizabeth Tsurkov, abducted in Iraq in 2023, in exchange for six Hizbollah members, a Lebanese marine captain held by Israel, and Iranian national Mohammad Reza Nouri, jailed in Iraq. Nouri, linked to the IRGC and accused of targeting U.S. forces, is central to the agreement. The swap, facilitated by Jordan, Iraq, and a Gulf Arab state, aligns with a broader trend of tactical diplomacy in the region, as nuclear talks and backchannel negotiations gain traction. IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qa’ani reportedly played a key role in finalising terms.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Israeli strike on a school housing displaced people kills dozens: A recent Israeli airstrike on a Gaza City school shelter has sparked outrage after videos emerged showing a young girl fleeing a burning classroom. The Fahmi Al-Jargawi girls’ school, home to dozens of displaced families, was hit in a late-night raid, killing at least 31 people—many of them children—according to health officials. Survivors described scenes of horror, with charred mattresses and bloodied walls as frantic parents searched for loved ones. Israel claimed, without evidence, that the school was used as a militant command centre. Human rights groups condemned the strike, noting that international law prohibits targeting schools. With shelters overwhelmed and sanitation collapsing, the UN warned: “No place is safe. No area has been spared.”

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 Trump backs US Steel–Nippon deal in dramatic policy reversal: In a striking reversal, President Trump has thrown his support behind a “partnership” between US Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel, just months after vowing to block the $14.9bn takeover. Trump announced the deal on Truth Social, claiming it would create 70,000 jobs and inject $14 billion into the U.S. economy, with US Steel’s headquarters remaining in Pittsburgh. Shares surged 21% as investors interpreted Trump’s shift as greenlighting the long-stalled merger. The move marks a stark departure from the Biden administration, which had halted the acquisition over national security concerns. While union leaders remain sceptical, Trump’s endorsement has relieved Wall Street and reignited expectations of a full takeover, potentially ending US Steel’s run as a public company.

Major Story

🇱🇧 POLARISATION PREVAILS AS LEBANON'S ELECTIONS OFFER NO POLITICAL RESET

Lebanon’s municipal elections, which concluded on 24 May after four rounds of voting, offered little indication of a political reset following the devastation of the 2023–2024 Hizbollah-Israel war. Despite heightened public frustration, the results confirmed the dominance of Lebanon’s traditional political actors, most notably the Shi’a alliance of Hizbollah and Amal, while reformist and opposition candidates failed to make gains.

Shi’a Bloc Holds Ground

Hizbollah and Amal, jointly referred to as the “Shi’a duo,” retained a firm grip on their strongholds in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Though critics believed the costly war might have curtailed their support, voter loyalty remained largely unshaken. Part of this endurance can be attributed to the impending Israeli threat and ongoing attacks, in addition to sectarian allegiance, disciplined mobilisation structures, and the absence of any viable Shi’a opposition. In southern Lebanon, where destruction from the war was most acute, the duo ran uncontested in 102 of 272 municipalities.

Christian Bloc Realigns, Reformists Falter

In Christian-majority areas, the Lebanese Forces (LF) outperformed the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), deepening a trend first seen in the 2022 parliamentary elections. The FPM’s decline is widely blamed on its tarnished alliance with Hizbollah and the divisive leadership of Gebran Bassil, whose estrangement of founding members and family ties to former president Michel Aoun have fuelled internal disillusionment.

Anti-establishment forces, including those born of Lebanon’s 2019 protest movement, failed to capitalise on discontent. In Beirut, establishment parties united across ideological lines to block outsider candidates—illustrating a recurring pattern in Lebanese politics, where old foes close ranks to stifle challenges from new entrants. Reformists, meanwhile, struggled with fragmentation and a lack of coherent vision, diminishing the electoral appeal they once held.

Conclusion

The local elections reaffirmed the deep-rooted polarisation between Hizbollah-aligned factions and their rivals, with little space left for emerging movements. As the status quo endures, Lebanon’s political stagnation looks set to continue—despite, or perhaps because of, the heavy toll exacted by war and economic crisis.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Civilians bear the brunt of Yemen's worsening crisis: A deadly U.S. airstrike near Sana’a last month killed 11 civilians, exposing the deepening humanitarian toll of Yemen’s war. While Washington claims to target Houthi forces, rights groups report families wiped out in areas without military targets. Footage from Thaqban shows devastation and mourning, fuelling accusations that flawed online intel may have guided the strike. Israel has also intensified bombing, targeting airports and power stations in response to Houthi rocket fire. Although President Trump has paused strikes after Houthi promises to cease Red Sea attacks, few Yemenis trust that peace is near. U.S. sanctions on Yemeni banks and fuel imports have deepened the crisis, pushing basic goods beyond reach. Humanitarian organisations warn the country is being strangled by military force and economic pressure. “There’s nothing left to bomb but people,” one survivor said.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇮🇱 German chancellor Merz questions Israel’s Gaza offensive: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has delivered rare and pointed criticism of Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza, questioning the logic and legality of its tactics. “I no longer understand the Israeli army’s objective,” Merz said in a televised interview, condemning the scale of harm inflicted on civilians. While reaffirming Germany’s deep historical commitment to Israel’s security, he warned that such actions may breach humanitarian law and erode vital alliances. His remarks follow growing unease within Germany’s ruling coalition, with SPD lawmakers urging a halt to arms exports. Felix Klein, Berlin’s antisemitism commissioner, echoed the sentiment, stressing that support for Israel does not excuse collective punishment. As aid blockades intensify Gaza’s crisis, Merz signalled he would raise concerns in talks with Prime Minister Netanyahu: “Israel must not push its friends beyond what they can accept.”

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇺🇦 Germany lifts weapons range limits for Ukraine as Merz signals strategic shift: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has confirmed that Germany, alongside the U.S., UK, and France, has lifted restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine—enabling strikes on Russian military targets. The announcement followed Russia’s largest drone attack on Ukraine to date. While Merz did not confirm a decision on sending Taurus missiles, speculation is mounting as President Zelenskyy prepares to visit Berlin. Kremlin officials condemned the move as undermining peace efforts. Merz defended the change, stating that Ukraine must be empowered to defend itself with “long-range fire,” noting that while Ukraine targets military sites, Russia deliberately strikes civilians. Though Western leaders previously feared escalation, Merz argued diplomacy had run its course and accused President Putin of viewing negotiation efforts as weakness. He warned the war may endure longer than many expect.