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📰 U.S.-India deepen ties

📰 U.S.-India deepen ties

and Guinea protests explode

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 09, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In the Sahel, widespread protests are mounting against Guinea’s ruling junta. In Washington, sanctions were imposed on a top Hungarian official, ties with India were strengthened through bilateral agreements, and the the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces have been formally accused of committing genocide in Sudan.

Today’s primary focus shifts back to the Levant, where Turkish President Erdoğan has issued fresh threats of military action against Kurdish-held areas in Syria.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇸 🇦🇪 UAE–backed Rapid Support Forces have committed genocide in Sudan, says United States: Washington has declared that Sudan’s RSF committed genocide during the ongoing civil war, the second such atrocity in Sudan in under 30 years. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced sanctions against RSF commander Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, citing widespread ethnic violence and systematic killings, particularly in Darfur. Blinken accused the RSF of massacring civilians, targeting ethnic groups, and obstructing humanitarian aid. The RSF, emerging from the Janjaweed militias responsible for Darfur’s atrocities in the 2000s, has been locked in a brutal war with Sudan’s Armed Forces since 2023. The conflict has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions. In addition to sanctioning Hemedti, the US targeted RSF-linked companies and individuals in the UAE accused of supplying weapons and funds. The declaration may lead to further international measures against the RSF and its allies.

2️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Israeli attack on Iran will cause ‘large–scale war,’ says Tehran: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Tehran is ready to counter any Israeli assault, cautioning that such aggression could spark a large-scale war. Araghchi urged Israel to avoid reckless actions, highlighting Iran’s preference for diplomacy and consultations with allies like China. The warning follows Israel’s missile and drone strikes on Iranian military sites in Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam on 26 October, which killed four soldiers. While Iran reported minimal damage, Israel claimed significant success. The strikes were retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israeli bases in early October, which Tehran said was a response to the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hizbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC General Abbas Nilforoushan.

3️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇵🇾 Venezuela cuts ties with Paraguay: Venezuela has cut diplomatic ties with Paraguay after Paraguayan President Santiago Peña publicly supported Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia. Peña recognized González Urrutia as the legitimate winner of Venezuela’s July 2024 presidential election, disputing Nicolás Maduro’s victory. The Venezuelan government recalled its diplomats from Paraguay, citing sovereignty in its decision. Maduro was declared the winner with 51.2% of the vote, but the opposition claims González Urrutia secured 67%. Prior to this, Venezuela had withdrawn diplomats from seven Latin American countries over similar disputes.

4️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 India, United States further bilateral cooperation in technology: As U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan concludes his visit to New Delhi, aimed at bolstering tech collaboration with India, analysts warn that president-elect Donald Trump may jeopardize the initiative. Sullivan’s meetings with Indian counterpart Ajit Doval focused on reinforcing the India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), which advances semiconductor production and AI development. This framework underpins joint ventures like General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautics’ fighter jet engine project. India is seen by Washington as a strategic counterbalance to China’s growing influence, with bilateral ties strengthening under Joe Biden. However, Trump’s scepticism about sharing advanced US technology raises doubts over whether his administration will maintain the same level of commitment to the partnership.

5️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Palestine’s West Bank reaches boiling point as IDF, PA clash with resistance groups: Violence in the occupied West Bank has escalated since the outbreak of war in Gaza following Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023. Since December, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has launched raids in the Jenin refugee camp in the north, aiming to target armed Palestinian resistance. These raids have led to numerous clashes, resulting in civilian and PA security force casualties. Following the deaths of a Palestinian father and son on Friday, the family blamed the PA, while the PA denied involvement, attributing the deaths to fighters in the camp. The Jenin Battalion armed group has accused the PA of killing at least 16 civilians since October 2023. Additionally, a member of the Palestinian General Intelligence Service, Major Rashid Shaqo, was also killed in the camp on Friday, with the PA describing the incident as accidental.

Major Story

🇹🇷 🇸🇾 ERDOGAN THREATENS MILITARY ACTION AGAINST KURDISH–HELD SYRIA

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stated that Türkiye is prepared to act if Syria faces fragmentation following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad by rebel forces. Speaking at a press conference, Erdoğan emphasized Türkiye's ‘commitment to preserving Syria's territorial integrity’ and warned of swift intervention if this unity is jeopardized. Türkiye’s support for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group now leading Syria, grants Ankara significant influence over the country’s political transition.

However, Türkiye’s primary concern remains Syria’s Kurdish forces, particularly the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara classifies as a terrorist organization linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described the YPG’s removal as "imminent," reinforcing Türkiye’s opposition to Kurdish autonomy in Syria. Ankara’s history of military incursions during Syria’s civil war reflects its readiness for unilateral action.

Simultaneously, Israel has increased airstrikes and taken control of a demilitarized buffer zone along its border with Syria, citing security concerns. Critics contend these actions breach ceasefire agreements and aim to expand Israeli influence. Both Türkiye and Israel’s maneuvers underscore the continued instability and competing agendas in post-Assad Syria power vacuum.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇳 Protests challenge Guinea’s junta: Guinea’s capital remains tense as protests erupt over the junta’s failure to meet its promised democratic transition deadline. Opposition leader Aliou Bah was sentenced to two years in prison for “insulting” the junta leader, intensifying fears of repression. Bah, one of the few critics still in the country, called his conviction a blow to free expression and democracy. Despite earlier pledges for elections by the end of 2024, junta leader Col. Mamadi Doumbouya has offered vague promises without firm dates, prompting criticism from civil society. The U.S. urged Guinea to adopt a transparent, inclusive path toward elections and involve opposition groups in the process. Rights groups warn of growing crackdowns on dissent and media, with political parties dissolved and journalists facing harassment.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇭🇺 U.S. places sanctions on Hungarian government official: The United States has imposed sanctions on Antal Rogan, a top Hungarian official and key ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, for alleged corruption, the State Department announced. Rogan, who has led Orban’s office since 2015, faces asset freezes and a ban on business dealings with Americans under the Global Magnitsky program. The U.S. Treasury accuses him of overseeing a corrupt system that channels state resources to loyal cronies. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto dismissed the sanctions as “personal revenge” by outgoing U.S. Ambassador David Pressman, reflecting strained ties with the Biden administration. However, U.S. officials insist the sanctions are meant to protect America’s financial system from enabling corrupt practices. The move comes weeks before Donald Trump’s second inauguration, highlighting concerns over corruption and democratic backsliding in Hungary.