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U.S.-Iran talks at 'crucial' stage

U.S.-Iran talks at 'crucial' stage

UN urges Security Council action on South Sudan

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 18, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, Spain and Lithuania challenge Ireland’s Eurozone leadership, while U.S. airstrikes hit a Yemeni oil port, killing dozens. Iran also returns to the spotlight as nuclear talks with Washington approach.

Our lead story explores how, despite the AES split, West Africa’s future remains closely bound to ECOWAS.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 Ayatollah Khamenei reportedly cautiously optimistic ahead of next round of U.S. talks: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has cautiously endorsed the ongoing nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington, expressing a balanced stance ahead of the second round scheduled for April 19. Speaking on April 15, Khamenei said that while the decision to engage in negotiations had been sound thus far, Iranian officials must proceed carefully, keeping clear red lines in mind. He stressed that while Iran remains sceptical of U.S. intentions, it remains confident in its own position. Importantly, Khamenei warned against linking the nation’s broader affairs to the outcome of the talks, which began in Muscat on April 12 and have so far taken place primarily through indirect channels.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇭🇹 Macron says that making Haiti pay for its independence was unjust: Two hundred years after France imposed a crushing financial penalty on Haiti in exchange for recognising its independence, French President Emmanuel Macron has openly acknowledged the injustice. In a statement marking the bicentenary of the 1825 ordinance, Macron said Haiti faced "the unjust force of history" from its inception and that France must confront its role in this painful legacy. To that end, he announced the formation of a joint Franco-Haitian commission of historians, co-chaired by Haitian academic Gusti-Klara Gaillard-Pourchet, to examine the impact of the so-called “independence debt” and offer recommendations to both governments. The gesture comes amid a deepening humanitarian and security crisis in Haiti, raising hopes—however tentative—that a new chapter in Franco-Haitian relations may be emerging.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 U.S.-Iran talks at ‘very crucial’ stage, says UN nuclear watchdog: Nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are entering a decisive phase, according to IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, who warned time is running short to resolve the long-running dispute. During a visit to Tehran, Grossi emphasised efforts to act as a bridge between the two sides, noting ongoing talks with Washington’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. Tensions remain high over uranium enrichment, with the U.S. demanding a complete halt while Iran insists on its right to civilian-level enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Hizbollah disarmament tied to dialogue and Israeli withdrawal, say Lebanese officials: Lebanon’s push to become the sole holder of arms hinges on national dialogue and Israel’s full withdrawal from occupied southern territory, according to government and Hizbollah-linked sources. President Joseph Aoun has pledged to restrict weapons to the state, opening channels with Hizbollah to explore integration into the national army. The group, weakened after sustained Israeli strikes, signals conditional openness to talks—but stresses disarmament cannot occur while Israeli troops remain on Lebanese soil. Analysts say any final decision will also depend on Iran’s strategic calculus as it negotiates with the U.S., while cautioning that forced disarmament could risk civil strife.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇸 Top UN official urges security council to prevent South Sudan’s imminent civil war: The UN’s top envoy in South Sudan, Nicholas Haysom, told the Security Council on Wednesday that the country is facing one of its most severe humanitarian crises since independence. He cited rising subnational violence, economic collapse, extreme weather, and fallout from Sudan’s conflict, warning that 9.3 million people now require aid, with 7.7 million facing acute food insecurity. Haysom urged all parties to recommit to the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, calling it the only viable path to break the cycle of violence. The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), now extended through April 2025, continues to work toward preventing renewed civil war.

Major Story

🇧🇫 🇲🇱 🇳🇪 WEST AFRICA’S FRACTURE: WHAT THE ECOWAS-AES SPLIT MEANS FOR REGIONAL UNITY AND SECURITY

The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS and their formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) marks a seismic political realignment in West Africa. Under military rule, the AES states have severed ties with traditional allies, rejected French and US military presence, and embraced Russian support. Their recent moves—including new tariffs and a joint military force—highlight a focus on sovereignty over regional economic cooperation.

Shared Threats, Fragmented Responses

Despite distancing themselves from ECOWAS, the AES faces growing insecurity. Jihadist violence, climate stress, and demographic pressures threaten to overwhelm already fragile states. The breakdown in cooperation jeopardizes both regional trade and the fight against armed groups, as militants increasingly spill into Benin and Togo.

Security as Common Ground

Though political reconciliation seems distant, security may offer a path to renewed cooperation. AES leaders blame ECOWAS for insufficient support, but joint efforts—like Ghana’s outreach to Burkina Faso—offer hope. Intelligence sharing and bilateral military coordination could lay groundwork for rebuilding trust.

A Way Forward for ECOWAS

ECOWAS must shift from punitive sanctions toward positive incentives that encourage reintegration without compromising democratic values. While refusing unconditional re-entry for AES states, the bloc can focus on pragmatic collaboration in food security, trade, and energy. Ultimately, the intertwined fate of Sahelian and coastal states demands unity: in confronting extremism, climate change, and economic hardship, no nation can stand alone.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇺🇸 U.S. airstrikes kill dozens in Yemeni oil terminal attack: The U.S. military announced it destroyed the Ras Isa fuel port on Yemen’s Red Sea coast, aiming to weaken the financial lifeline of Houthi rebels. According to U.S. Central Command, the strike sought to degrade the Huthis’ economic capabilities without harming civilians. Houthi officials, however, condemned the air raid as an attack on Yemeni sovereignty, reporting 20 deaths—including five medics. The strike marks one of the deadliest since President Trump launched the campaign to halt Houthi assaults on Red Sea shipping. Meanwhile, the U.S. accused a Chinese satellite firm of aiding the rebels, calling it further proof of Beijing’s insincere peace rhetoric.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇪🇸 🇱🇹 🇮🇪 Spain, Lithuania, push to oust Ireland from leading eurozone talks: Spain’s Carlos Cuerpo and Lithuania’s Rimantas Šadžius are positioning themselves to challenge Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe for the presidency of the Eurogroup, ahead of a likely vote in July. Though neither candidate has formally declared, both are quietly building support in a bid to unseat Donohoe, who is seeking a third term after five years leading the influential bloc of eurozone finance ministers. While Donohoe remains a strong contender with broad though cautious backing, Šadžius is expected to appeal to Baltic states, while Cuerpo may gain favour among southern EU members. Political alignment, geographic blocs, and party affiliations are set to shape the contest, which could head to a runoff if no candidate secures a majority in the first round.