Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 U.S.-led coalition to withdraw from Iraq

📰 U.S.-led coalition to withdraw from Iraq

and Australia probes Nauru-China deal

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 21, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Australia launches probe into $1bn Nauru–China investment deal; Sudanese diplomat denounces UAE support for RSF and urges global pressure; and Libya is accused of holding secret talks with Israel on Gaza resettlement.

In today’s lead story, consensus forms around “Article 5-like” guarantees for Kyiv—yet, as with the failed 2022 Istanbul framework, the promise risks crumbling under the weight of unresolved red lines.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran rebuilds military and warns of looming war with Israel: Iran is urgently rebuilding its military strength following June’s 12-day conflict with Israel, which left nuclear facilities and defence capabilities badly damaged. Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told Iranian media that Tehran and Israel remain “in a stage of war,” stressing no ceasefire exists. Safavi warned another confrontation may be imminent and possibly decisive. He argued that to deter Israel and the United States, Iran must bolster its power across all fronts—diplomatic, cyber, drone, missile, and media—because “the weak are trampled.” The June clashes saw Israel strike Iranian nuclear sites and commanders, while Iran launched thousands of rockets that caused heavy economic damage in Israel. Safavi said scenario-planning is underway to prepare for the “worst case.”

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 India and China pledge to restore ties as Trump’s tariffs reshape global order: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi have declared “steady” progress in repairing strained relations, agreeing to resume flights, issue journalist visas, and expand business and cultural exchanges. The thaw follows years of hostility since their deadly 2020 border clash, with both sides now pursuing de-escalation through talks on patrols and boundary demarcation. Modi is expected to visit Beijing in October for his first meeting with Xi Jinping since 2018. The rapprochement comes amid Donald Trump’s escalating tariff war, which has strained India’s partnership with Washington. Despite deep mistrust, analysts say Trump’s measures have accelerated India and China’s bid to stabilise ties while both hedge against shifting U.S. priorities in the Indo-Pacific.

3️⃣ 🇧🇫 🇺🇳 Burkina Faso junta escalates rift with UN after child rights abuse report: Burkina Faso’s junta declared UN resident coordinator Carol Flore-Smereczniak “persona non grata” on Monday, accusing her of involvement in a report that alleged both jihadi groups and government forces committed grave abuses against children. The UN report, released in April, documented 2,483 violations between July 2022 and June 2024, including recruitment of child soldiers, sexual abuse, and attacks on schools and hospitals. Authorities dismissed the findings as “false” and “without evidence.” Flore-Smereczniak, appointed last year with the government’s approval, also serves as humanitarian coordinator. The move underscores tensions between the junta and international organizations, as Burkina Faso—like neighbors Mali and Niger—battles a worsening insurgency after expelling French troops and turning to Russian support. Civilian deaths from jihadist and state-linked forces continue to rise.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇶 U.S.-led coalition to withdraw from Iraq, shifting to bilateral security ties: Iraq announced that the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS will begin withdrawing next month, with all foreign troops leaving Baghdad and Ain al-Asad by September 2025 and a final phase completed in 2026. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani’s government says the move reflects Iraq’s growing capacity to combat terrorism and its desire for a bilateral security partnership centred on training and advising forces. Around 2,500 U.S. troops remain in Iraq, but militias aligned with Iran vow to keep their weapons regardless of the withdrawal. While Sudani frames the decision as a political win ahead of November elections, analysts warn that the exit could heighten the risk of U.S.-Israeli strikes on armed groups and trigger instability that might delay the polls.

5️⃣ 🇱🇧 Hizbollah warns disarmament plan risks civil war as Qassem vows to keep weapons: Hizbollah secretary general Naim Qassem accused Lebanon’s government of “handing the country to Israel” by advancing plans to disarm the group, warning it would fight to keep its arsenal. Speaking after meeting Iran’s top security chief Ali Larijani, Qassem said the government was implementing an “American-Israeli order” that could spark civil war. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned the remarks as an unacceptable threat, recalling Lebanon’s 1975–1990 conflict that killed 200,000. Hizbollah, weakened after last year’s war with Israel and the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, faces a government deadline to disarm by year’s end under U.S. pressure. While critics argue the group uses its weapons for political leverage, Hizbollah insists they are essential for resisting Israeli aggression, with Tehran pledging continued support.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 ARTICLE 5 WITHOUT NATO? THE FRAGILE PROMISE OF SECURITY GUARANTEES FOR UKRAINE

President Trump’s meetings with European and Ukrainian leaders this week seemed to generate a breakthrough: broad agreement on “Article 5-like” security guarantees for Kyiv. Trump suggested that Vladimir Putin had tacitly accepted the principle, drawing praise from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European counterparts. Yet the idea is hardly new. It recalls the Istanbul peace talks of 2022, when Ukraine sought collective defence commitments from a coalition of guarantors. At the time, Moscow attempted to insert a veto clause that Kyiv flatly rejected.

Russia’s Red Lines

Three years on, the same dilemma remains: how to craft binding guarantees that deter Russia without crossing its red lines. Moscow has consistently opposed any permanent Western troop presence on Ukrainian soil. The Kremlin has shown flexibility on other issues—freezing the lines of control, tolerating Ukraine’s EU aspirations—but it has never shifted on NATO boots in Ukraine. During the latest round of talks, Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterated its “categorical rejection” of any deployments involving NATO countries.

The Ambiguity of Deployment

Even so, nuances persist. Moscow distinguishes between preemptive deployments after a peace deal and a European military response to a future invasion. Trump has ruled out U.S. forces, leaving Europeans to shoulder the question, if their troops are deployed, will they fight alongside Ukrainians on the front lines, or merely provide logistical and training support? European leaders must clarify not only for Kyiv, but also for their own publics, whether these pledges amount to a readiness to go to war with Russia.

Strategic Ambiguity or Poison Pill?

In practice, “Article 5-like” guarantees may resemble what is already underway: military aid, training, and sanctions relief, with the added possibility of no-fly zones or conditional deployments. Some observers suggest a Taiwan-style model of strategic ambiguity may emerge, leaving the prospect of intervention open without binding commitments. Whether Moscow can tolerate even that depends on the wider bargain of sanctions relief, NATO’s eastern limits, and territorial arrangements.

The Stakes of Failure

Unlike Istanbul in 2022, Ukraine now has willing guarantors. But the window for settlement is narrow. If security guarantees remain undefined, they risk becoming a poison pill that derails fragile progress. For Ukraine, clarity is existential; for Russia, red lines are non-negotiable. Bridging that gulf will determine whether these talks yield peace—or collapse into another missed opportunity.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 Sudanese diplomat condemns UAE role in RSF-backed war, calls for global pressure: A senior Sudanese diplomat has denounced the UAE’s role in Sudan’s civil war, calling its participation in peace efforts “absurd” given widespread allegations it arms and finances the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Babikir Elamin, Sudan’s envoy in London, argued Abu Dhabi is the war’s “main sponsor” and a key reason for its prolongation, urging international pressure on the Gulf state. The UAE’s alleged support for the RSF—including weapons, funding, and foreign mercenaries—has been cited by UN experts and Western diplomats, while Khartoum recently accused it of flying in Colombian fighters. With over 150,000 killed, 13 million displaced, and peace talks stalled amid rifts between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, Elamin warned no settlement is possible without confronting Emirati involvement.

2️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇳🇷 🇨🇳 Australia probes $1bn Nauru-China investment agreement: Canberra has demanded clarification from Nauru over a claimed AU$1 billion investment agreement with the little-known “China Rural Revitalisation and Development Corporation,” amid fears it could breach a sweeping security treaty signed just nine months ago. The treaty gives Australia effective veto power over Nauru’s security arrangements, but analysts question the credibility of the deal, noting no public record of the company exists. Graeme Smith of ANU dismissed the proposal as “theatre” ahead of Nauru’s September elections, warning against overreaction. Nauru says the investment would cover renewable energy, fisheries, and tourism, with a Chinese “scoping team” due in October. But with no details or verifiable corporate footprint, observers doubt the billion-dollar pledge will materialise.

3️⃣ 🇱🇾 🇮🇱 Libya accused of secret talks with Israel over Gaza resettlement plan: Senior figures in Libya’s Tripoli-based government are reported to have held covert discussions with Israeli officials about relocating Palestinians ethnically cleansed from Gaza. Sources told Middle East Eye that National Security Adviser Ibrahim Dbeibah led the talks, allegedly with U.S. promises of economic incentives, including access to frozen Libyan assets. Both Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and Khalifa Haftar have denied involvement, but insiders suggest parallel negotiations with Israel are aimed at gaining American legitimacy. Palestinian displacement to Libya—mired in civil conflict and institutional collapse—would likely provoke outrage domestically and further destabilise the region. Analysts warn such a move risks compounding humanitarian catastrophe, forcing Palestinians from one war zone into another and triggering new migration flows towards Europe.