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📰 U.S. military in Mexico?

📰 U.S. military in Mexico?

and Europe vs. Silicon Valley

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 05, 2025

Hello and welcome back,

The White House has suspended military aid to Ukraine and issued warnings of potential military action against Mexico. In Europe, Germany has halted development assistance to Rwanda over its support for M23, while the EU moves to curb the political influence of major tech firms.

Today’s main story examines the political deadlock in Iraqi Kurdistan, exploring shifting alliances and the region’s uncertain stability.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Trump freezes military aid to Ukraine: The prospect of Ukraine continuing its fight without U.S. military assistance is becoming a reality after Washington announced a suspension of aid. A senior Ukrainian intelligence official warned that remaining U.S. supplies could run out within two to three months, forcing tactical withdrawals but not a total collapse. While European allies are stepping up to fill the gap, their production struggles to match U.S. capabilities, particularly in providing critical systems like Patriot air defense missiles and Himars launchers. Without U.S. support, Russia is likely to make further gains, and while Ukraine is ramping up domestic military production, the transition will take time—leaving its forces vulnerable in the interim.

2️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 OPEC+ begins production hike: Multinational oil production cartel OPEC+ announced that it will proceed with its planned oil production increase in April, following renewed pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower prices. This marks the group’s first production hike since 2022, with an initial rise of 138,000 barrels per day, though OPEC+ warned it could adjust the plan based on market conditions. Oil prices, which had surged above $82 per barrel in January, have since dropped to around $71 amid speculation about Trump’s influence on global energy markets. However, uncertainty remains due to U.S. sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, along with potential global tariffs, all of which could further complicate the oil market outlook.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇲🇽 Military action will be taken if Mexico fails to meet Trump’s border demands, says Hegseth: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned that the United States may take unilateral military action against Mexican cartels, according to The Wall Street Journal. During a call with senior Mexican officials on 31 January, he urged them to address cartel-government collusion and act swiftly to combat border crime, stating that the U.S. was prepared to intervene. The warning reportedly left Mexican officials “surprised and angry,” especially as it came just before President Donald Trump announced, then postponed, 25% tariffs on Mexico after negotiations with President Claudia Sheinbaum. Since then, Mexico has ramped up anti-narcotics efforts, culminating in the extradition of 29 cartel leaders to the U.S. following high-level security talks in Washington between both governments.

4️⃣ 🇻🇳 🇨🇳 Vietnam expands South China Sea military footprint: While much attention has focused on China’s aggressive claims over the South China Sea, Vietnam has quietly expanded its own territorial presence. Hanoi has significantly increased land reclamation efforts in the Spratly Islands, with its total reclaimed land now covering 2,360 acres—half of China’s total. On Barque Canada Reef, Vietnam is constructing a nearly 2-mile-long runway, potentially capable of supporting military aircraft, while other occupied features, such as Pearson and Tennent reefs, are also being reinforced. Although China maintains control over the Paracel Islands since seizing them in 1974, Vietnam is steadily strengthening its military infrastructure in the region, signaling its determination to assert sovereignty.

5️⃣ 🇦🇷IMF deal is ‘imminent,’ says Argentine president Milei: Argentine President Javier Milei has signaled that a new deal with the International Monetary Fund is near, using his congressional address to highlight his economic reforms and project optimism despite a politically turbulent year. He claimed his administration had curbed inflation and promised the IMF agreement would help stabilize Argentina’s currency and attract investment. However, his reliance on executive orders to push reforms, bypassing a hostile Congress, has sparked accusations of authoritarian overreach. Amid mounting controversies, including a cryptocurrency scandal, Milei’s ability to consolidate power in the 2025 midterm elections could determine the future of his aggressive economic agenda.

Major Story

🇮🇶 🇸🇾 POLITICAL DEADLOCK IN IRAQI KURDISTAN: SHIFTING ALLIANCES AND UNCERTAIN STABILITY

The inconclusive outcome of Iraqi Kurdistan’s October 2024 parliamentary elections has heightened political discord, with neither the KDP nor the PUK securing a majority. Longstanding tensions between the two parties have intensified, risking further political fragmentation that could undermine the region’s autonomy. Once a pivotal force in Iraq’s national politics, the Kurdistan Region now struggles with internal divisions that threaten its governance.

Geopolitical Shifts and Recalibrated Strategies

Amid economic turmoil and institutional decay, election law changes—driven by a PUK lawsuit—eroded the KDP’s electoral advantage, exacerbating hostilities. Initially, both parties rejected past power-sharing arrangements, with the KDP refusing to form a coalition and the PUK attempting to build a majority without its rival. However, shifting regional dynamics, including U.S. President Trump’s election and the fall of Bashar al-Assad, have forced the PUK to reconsider its position and seek a compromise.

Emerging Pragmatism and Policy Alignment

Recognizing the need for political survival, the PUK has softened its stance, signaling openness to a power-sharing deal with the KDP. This includes supporting initiatives such as the “My Account Initiative,” which it had previously opposed. While significant challenges remain, evolving alliances indicate a potential shift toward cooperation, offering a possible path to government formation and renewed political stability in the Kurdistan Region.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 EU looks to contain political influence of ‘Big Tech’: European politicians who played a key role in shaping the EU’s digital regulations are pushing back against U.S. policymakers influenced by tech giants like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg. Their visit to Washington came as President Donald Trump’s administration escalates criticism of EU laws on content moderation and digital competition, calling them unfair restrictions on American businesses. Some U.S. lawmakers, including Jim Jordan, claim these regulations amount to censorship, prompting concerns about transatlantic trade tensions. The EU delegation, led by German lawmaker Anna Cavazzini, argued that their Digital Services Act, Digital Markets Act, and AI Act establish necessary safeguards rather than stifling innovation or targeting U.S. companies. However, with Trump’s allies framing the issue as an attack on free speech, the debate over tech regulation continues to deepen divisions between the two sides.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇷🇼 🇨🇩 Germany freezes aid to Rwanda over M23 backing: Germany has announced it will withhold new development aid commitments to Rwanda due to Kigali’s backing of the M23 rebel group fighting in eastern DRC. The German government condemned the actions of M23 and the Rwandan military, including the capture of the provincial capitals Goma and Bukavu. With an estimated 4,000 Rwandan troops operating in eastern Congo, Berlin is reviewing its existing cooperation with Rwanda and suspending high-level participation in development events. Germany joins the UK, Canada, and the US in taking measures against Rwanda, with international pressure mounting for Kigali to withdraw its forces and end its support for the rebels.