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📰 U.S.-Russia meet in Riyadh

📰 U.S.-Russia meet in Riyadh

and U.S. debt sparks fears

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 19, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

Latin America dominates today’s headlines: Venezuela president Maduro has proposed constitutional reforms, the ELN has launched a three-day offensive in Colombia, and former Brazilian President Bolsonaro faces charges over an alleged coup attempt.

Meanwhile, in East Asia, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. hold talks on North Korea’s denuclearisation, while China seeks to strengthen ties with the EU.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 U.S., Russian delegations meet in Riyadh: Senior U.S. and Russian officials held a four-hour meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war in Ukraine and laying the groundwork for a potential Trump-Putin summit. The talks, led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, sparked concerns in Kyiv, where Ukrainian leaders fear negotiations taking place without their involvement. Russian diplomat Yuri Ushakov described the discussions as productive, noting that both sides agreed to begin formal talks on a peace deal. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky postponed a planned visit to Saudi Arabia, citing concerns over the optics of engaging with Riyadh immediately after the U.S.-Russia talks. As diplomatic efforts intensify, the U.S. has pledged to consult Ukraine and its European allies before proceeding further.

2️⃣ 🇧🇷 Bolsonaro charged over alleged putsch: Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been formally charged with orchestrating a coup d'etat to remain in power. Attorney General Paulo Gonet accused Bolsonaro and six key allies of leading a criminal organization with an "authoritarian power project," which allegedly included plans to assassinate Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and poison President Lula da Silva. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 43 years in prison for crimes including attempted coup d’état and violent subversion of the rule of law—charges he denies. The indictment follows a federal police report linking Bolsonaro to efforts to prevent Lula from assuming office after the 2022 election, culminating in the January 8, 2023, riots in Brasília, where Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in a failed bid to overturn the election results.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 U.S. federal debt rises: Concerns about the rising U.S. federal debt and its potential to trigger an economic disaster are growing, according to Brookings Institute. Some experts, like former Office of Management and Budget Director Mitch Daniels, warn that the debt could soon exceed the nation's GDP, leading to a reckoning. However, our analysis suggests that while high debt will likely slow economic growth and erode national wealth over time, a fiscal crisis is unlikely in the next few decades. Instead, a slow decline in living standards is expected unless political and economic actions, such as preventing spikes in interest rates and maintaining fiscal discipline, are taken. Although the risks of a crisis exist, especially due to political missteps, the probability of a severe crisis remains low if current trends continue.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇮🇶 🇸🇾 Turkish DEM delegation visits Iraqi Kurdistan, prepares for peace process talks: A Turkish delegation from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) recently met Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), in Iraq’s Kurdistan region to discuss reviving stalled peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Despite these talks, skepticism remains about Turkey's true commitment to peace. Critics, including Fethullah Husseini from the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, argue that Turkey is using negotiations for political gain, with some insisting that a lasting resolution requires the release of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and recognition of Kurdish rights. As discussions continue, Turkey’s ongoing military actions and isolation of Ocalan raise doubts about genuine efforts to end the conflict.

5️⃣ 🇨🇴 🇻🇪 ELN launches three day offensive: The ELN’s three-day “armed strike” in Colombia’s Chocó department has brought businesses and public transport to a halt, confining civilians to their homes. The rebels claim the strike is a response to alleged state-military alliances with paramilitary groups, though Colombia’s military argues the ELN is using it to facilitate drug trafficking and illegal gold mining. Chocó, a remote and impoverished province along the Pacific coast, has become a key hub for drug smuggling and gold extraction, now largely controlled by the ELN following the 2016 FARC peace deal. With an estimated 6,000 fighters across Colombia and Venezuela, the ELN has expanded its influence, occupying former FARC strongholds and intensifying violence in rural areas.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 CHINA’S DIPLOMATIC OUTREACH AMID TRANSATLANTIC TENSIONS

China has augmented its diplomatic efforts in Europe as divisions grow between the United States and its European allies. While U.S. and European leaders debated democracy and security at the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with key European figures, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Wang emphasized China’s support for European-led peace efforts in Ukraine, though the EU remained cautious, urging Beijing to stop exporting dual-use goods to Russia.

U.S.-Europe Frictions at Munich

In contrast to China’s conciliatory approach, U.S. Vice President JD Vance criticized European leaders, accusing them of failing to uphold shared values. His remarks, particularly on migration and right-wing censorship, sparked backlash from European officials. Meanwhile, U.S. diplomats met with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine, sidelining European involvement in potential peace talks.

Strategic Calculations and Future Relations

China appears to be leveraging U.S.-EU tensions to enhance its influence in Europe. With Washington threatening tariffs on European goods, analysts suggest the EU may adopt a more pragmatic stance on China to avoid economic strain. However, structural disagreements over trade, Russia, and human rights remain, making a major policy shift unlikely.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 🇺🇸 🇰🇵 Japan, South Korea, U.S. discuss North Korea denuclearisation: Tokyo, Seoul, and Washington reaffirmed their commitment to the "complete denuclearisation" of North Korea, as outlined in UN Security Council resolutions. This joint declaration followed a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, South Korean Foreign Minister Choe Tae-yul, and Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya at the Munich Security Conference. The officials condemned Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile advancements, cybercrimes—including cryptocurrency theft—and its deepening military ties with Russia. They issued a strong warning against any provocations and pledged to uphold and tighten sanctions on North Korea, which remains diplomatically and economically isolated while continuing to expand its nuclear capabilities.

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 Maduro submits constitution reform: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has presented his proposed constitutional reform to the National Assembly, aiming to restructure the state and address internal and external threats. The proposal, consisting of 80 articles, focuses on four main issues: expanding participatory democracy by incorporating communal and popular power, emphasizing the need to combat 'fascist threats', creating a self-sufficient economic model, and updating the constitution in response to global changes. Maduro appointed a commission, including key officials from his government, to draft the amendments, with a 90-day deadline. The proposed reforms will be put to a referendum, though no date has been set, and if passed, they could alter the political landscape, despite opposition claims of electoral fraud and the recognition of rival Edmundo González as president.